How New Rules Affect Fantasy

They say the only two certainties in life are death and taxes, but if I may offer up one more, I’d like to throw evolution into the mix as well. No, I’m not going to engage in a debate of evolution vs. creation because A. that’s not what I’m talking about and B. that would just be stupid anyway. No, the evolution to which I am referring has to do with sports and, more specifically for here, the game of football. Change is inevitable and as the game of football has changed over the years, so has the game of fantasy football.

Last season, the NFL adopted a trial rule of moving the extra-point attempt back to the 15-yard line, essentially turning a “20-yard gimme” into a more precarious kick from 32-33 yards away. No one was in any major uproar and the general consensus believed that this would inspire more teams to attempt a two-point conversion (a rule adopted back in 1994) instead, thereby making it more exciting for the fans. Well did it? Was the change in the rule effective in increasing the number of goal-line plays and thus keeping it more exciting for the fans?

In 2014, there were a total of 59 two-point conversions attempted. In 2015, following the change to push the extra-point back, there were a total of 95 two-point attempts. Yeah, I’d say almost twice the amount from year to year would mean the NFL achieved its goal. The success rate of the two-point conversions is actually negligible here, so don’t even ask how it affected the overall scoring. The fact is that the NFL got exactly what they wanted – more goal-line action which inevitably breeds more excitement for the fans.

But how did the change affect the fantasy world?

Well, obviously the change in rule devalued the kickers overall. The following two charts list the top five fantasy kickers for the last two seasons – before the rules change and after.

Just for clarification, the points in this league were three for a successful field goal with an added three-point bonus for successful kicks over 50 yards, one point for a successful extra-point and minus-1 for a missed field goal or extra-point. The difference in the numbers isn’t dramatic, but we’ve definitely seen a decrease in overall kicker fantasy points. For a slightly more dramatic difference, look at the 12^th best kicker for the two years – in 2014 it was Caleb Sturgis with 126 points while in 2015, Mike Nugent had just 115. Now it’s easy to say, “who cares?” since no one drafts a kicker until the final rounds anyway, but the impact extends to the skill players as well.

In 2014, there were just seven successful rushing two-point conversions. In 2015, that number jumped up to 11 which offers up a greater fantasy point total for many running backs. In 2014, there were 22 successful two-point conversions through the air. In 2015, that number climbed to 39. Quarterbacks and wide receivers both made the jump as fantasy scoring gives both credit for one successful passing two-point conversion. Now obviously you cannot predict which players will reap the biggest benefits, but you can look at it from the perspective that teams that have a greater propensity to fall behind early may try more two-point conversions, more high-scoring offenses will see more conversions attempted or you could go easier and look at teams whose kickers are less reliable than others. Last year Tom Brady had zero two-point conversions while Marcus Mariota had three and Ben Roethlisberger had eight.

You picking up what I’m putting down? Even a rules change as simple as pushing the extra-point back 15 yards increased the value of a number of skill players while it continues to shine on the irrelevance of kickers in fantasy. So with that, let’s take a look at some of the rules changes for the 2016 season and see if there’s a potential impact to which fantasy owners should be paying attention.

2016 NFL Rules Changes Approved

Permanently moves the line of scrimmage for extra-points to the defensive team’s 15-yard line and allows the defense to return any missed attempt.

We’ve gone through the ways the scoring has changed since this rule was first tested in 2015 and we can also add a slight bump for team defenses who have a strong special teams unit as well as maybe a small handful of guys in IDP leagues. Again, the difference isn’t dramatic, but seriously, you can really leave that kicker for the very last round if you like.

Permits the offensive and defensive play callers on the coaching staffs to use the coach-to-player communication system regardless of whether they are on the field or in the coaches’ booth.

You probably won’t even see a minor impact with this one, but it does take some of the home field advantage away for some. Seattle prides itself on having the “12^th man,” but if the opposing coaches and quarterbacks aren’t struggling to hear the plays, then the defense sort of loses its edge. Again, nothing major, but you can stop jumping at that Seahawks defense, people. Team defenses can go the way of the kicker which means you can save it for the last round.

Makes all chop blocks illegal

The only real fantasy impact you may see here is when a guy gets caught for multiple infractions in one game and gets ejected. Maybe keep an eye on some offensive linemen, tight ends or even running backs who are known culprits and avoid their teams in general.

Expands the horse collar rule to include when a defender grabs the jersey at the name plate or above and pulls a runner toward the ground.

Maybe if you owned Roy Williams in an IDP league this would have a significant impact, but this isn’t 2005, so you simply have to look around for habitual offenders. Players like Brandon Meriweather and Dashon Goldson could prove to be liabilities should they be caught and ejected for such infractions.

Disqualifies a player who is penalized twice in one game for certain types of unsportsmanlike conduct fouls.

It’s the old “two strikes and you’re out” policy. Again, you may feel this more if you play in an IDP league and you own one or more of the “dirty” players in the league. This could also affect chop-blockers on the offensive side or maybe even lineman who have a little trouble flying the straight and narrow.

Changes the spot of the next snap after a touchback resulting from a free kick to the 25-yard line (one year only).

OK, so maybe this one has some legs and could impact the fantasy community. Maybe we see fewer return men taking a chance to take it to the house since they can just take a knee and gain a quick five yards. We could also see more of the top offenses scoring more since they’re playing with a shorter field. By adopting for just the one season (like they did with the extra-point last year), the league is obviously expecting some sort of pushback on this. This could have an impact on a game-by-game basis, but it’s more likely we see the full impact at the end of the season, if there is one. We’ll have to watch those return men closely and see if they’re gaining or losing value.  

Makes it a foul for delay of game when a team attempts to call a timeout when it is not permitted to do so.

There is no fantasy impact for stupidity here.

Eliminates the five-yard penalty for an eligible receiver illegally touching a forward pass after being put out of bounds and re-establishing himself inbounds, and makes it a loss of down.

You still can’t do it, but the penalty is a little harsher with the loss of down. No fantasy impact here so you’re good to go!

Eliminates multiple spots of enforcement for a double-foul after a change of possession.

Again, no real fantasy impact here.

So overall, there’s really not a whole lot to be nervous about with respect to current rules changes. Kickers will have the same value as they did last year and we can probably expect an upward trajectory for two-point conversions and their impact on some of the skill players. For the rest of the rules, maybe steer clear of some of the big troublemakers and don’t worry so much about individual kick returners. You keep all of that in line and the rest is cream cheese.