Fantasy Football Target Watch: Here Comes the Boom

While we like to take things one week at a time, play it game-by-game and insert whatever other cliché you’d like, it’s going to be extremely difficult for many fantasy owner to not look past this week and set their sights on their Week 12 match-up.

All that waiting…

All those weeks playing with a bench with one spot less than your competition…

All those times fantasy experts told you how stupid you were being for playing this year with your hopes pinned on a thug…

The waiting is over. Almost.

Come Week 12, Josh Gordon will be back in a Browns uniform and all of you who have been stashing the much-maligned receiver will finally get a chance to activate him. Your fantasy football hopes and dreams will be fulfilled. Whether you crazily drafted him in the fifth round or were able to sneak him past your league in the 15^th, you will finally get your chance to prove your misunderstood genius to the rest of them.

Of course, there are no guarantees here. Yes, in his first game back, the Browns will be facing the Atlanta Falcons, a team that ranks 32^nd in the league against the pass. Yes, that’s dead last and yes, they allow a league-worst average of 281 yards per game through the air. But before you go lubricating the family Slip-n-Slide with your fantasy drool, keep in mind that there are a few things working against you.

First off, while the Atlanta pass defense sits at the bottom of the barrel, the Falcons rank 21^st in the league against opposing No. 1 wideouts and give up an average of just 73.7 receiving yards per game to them. They have also allowed just 12 touchdowns through the air this season. That’s the second-fewest number allowed in the NFL. Also, while Browns coach Mike Pettine has been fairly vocal about the Browns offense not revolving solely around Gordon. However, he may not have a choice. With tight end Jordan Cameron still sidelined by a concussion and the rest of the receiving corps smothered in mediocrity, the team may not have much of a choice but to try and force the ball into Gordon’s hands. The Falcons are well aware of this and will prepare themselves for such an occurrence. And then finally, there’s the Atlanta run defense. They rank a subpar 24^th in the league. They give up an average of 124 rushing yards per game and have allowed a league-worst 13 touchdowns via the run. With a rejuvenated Terrance West leading a backfield that also houses Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell, there’s a strong chance that the Browns end up handing the ball off 30-to-40 times in this game.

Obviously, though, the team will want to get Gordon involved; even heavily involved, if you will. But don’t go thinking that you’re going to get 12 catches for 215 yards and two touchdowns right off the bat. And be wary of the fact that after Week 12, the Browns face the Bills and their third-ranked pass defense next. Yes, you are on the road, but it could be one hell of a rocky trip.

But crack yourself a beer! Light a joint! Do whatever it is you do to celebrate on Sundays. For better or worse, your time has come. As your friend and advisor, I wish you happiness, a victory, a playoff berth and most of all…a chance to turn around to a know-it-all like me and say, “I told you so.” However, should things not go your way, expect me to ridicule with the wrath of a thousand storms.

Don’t forget, though, you’ve got to win this week. A loss here could severely hinder your playoff chances and then next week won’t even matter. So let’s talk targets for the rest of the league here and see if we can’t help you out now and think about tomorrow, tomorrow.

Week 10 Target Leaders

, WR SF – Throughout his career, there’s always been so much to love about owning Boldin. He’s a fantastic route-runner, has great hands, and every single one of his quarterbacks has leaned heavily on him because of his consistent reliability. Well, it’s been no different with Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, as evidenced by his 46.9-percent target rate this past week and his team-leading 25.9-percent overall mark. Forget about the weak catch rate this week as that’s a clear aberration, but keep in mind that one of the biggest criticisms of Kaepernick is his inability to spread the ball around. That flaw works great for Boldin owners, but offensive coordinator Greg Roman wants to change that and get Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis more involved. Steve Johnson too. Boldin should continue to see decent target numbers moving forward, but don’t count on too many more 15-target games.

Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, WR DET – It looks like the two can coexist in this offense after all. There was some obvious concern over the expected decrease in targets for Tate, but while Megatron led the team with 15 this week, Tate did a fantastic job with his 13 and nailed down his third-straight 100-yard game and fifth in his last six. If you held onto Tate with the impending return of Johnson, it looks like you’ll do just fine.

, WR TB – Take a good look at this stat line as you may never see it look like this again. No, not the 61.5-percent catch rate (something we’ll probably never see again either). We’re talking about the 13 targets. There’s a definite transition taking place in Tampa Bay and it looks like Mike Evans is beginning to supplant Jackson as the team’s No. 1 target. The usually unsure hands of Jackson seem to have finally caught up to him and Evans, who has two-straight 100-yard games with three touchdowns, is likely to continue seeing the increase in targets at the expense of his veteran teammate.

Allen Robinson, WR JAC – Say goodbye, people. He’s done for the year with a stress fracture in his foot. Expect his targets to head back Cecil Shorts’ way and be on the lookout for a returning Marcedes Lewis.

James Jones, WR OAK – Another quick mention here as Jones apparently set some sort of a record for most targets/catches for the fewest number of yards. With Andre Holmes and Brice Butler, doing more with what they’ve been given, Jones could be headed for a decline in on-field looks.

, WR MIA – While Mike Wallace will remain the team’s No. 1 wideout and continue seeing strong targets, particularly in the red zone, Landry, a rookie out of LSU, seems to have supplanted Brian Hartline as Ryan Tannehill’s favorite possession receiver. He’ll continue to work on the return team, but he’s seen an increase in targets over the last two weeks and Hartline has been steadily phased out of the offensive game plan. He’s not yet to the point where you can trust him in your lineup regularly, but he could be a real nice bye week fill-in over the next two weeks.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

In addition to the ‘Potential Fallers’ listed below, those whose targets are expected to decline to the point where they drop form the Overall Leaderboard, there are a number of guys whose roles are about to change on their team and see their target percentage take a significant tumble. Eric Decker may see his rate drop with the addition of Percy Harvin, Andrew Hawkins will drop with the return of Josh Gordon, Mohamed Sanu’s in the wake of A.J. Green’s return, and now also Rueben Randle who should have seen an increase with the loss of Victor Cruz, but is steadily losing targets with the impressive play of Odell Beckham Jr. and Preston Parker. Make sure that you are constantly following each team’s ever-changing pecking order. The last thing you want to do is fail to roll with the punches and stick with a guy whose value is simply not what it was four weeks ago.

Red Zone Target Leaders

, WR CARF – The separation in red zone target rate between Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen is becoming increasingly larger as Cam Newton’s trust in the rookie continues to rise. Maybe it’s a coverage thing as defenses were normally paying extra attention to Olsen inside the 20, but Benjamin is becoming more of a threat to score which will only increase his overall value.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN – The steady increase in red zone looks and target percentage may go unnoticed by many, but Sanders has now seen his numbers in the red zone increase steadily over the next few weeks. Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas may get the most fanfare, but Sanders has been putting in some crazy good work lately.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 11 Match-Up to Watch

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts – This is definitely a potential preview of an AFC Championship game as two of the most prolific pass offenses clash on Sunday Night. The Colts pass defense has softened up a lot of the last few weeks and ranks 18^th in the league right now, giving up an average of 264 passing yards per game with a whopping 16 touchdowns allowed through the air. Tom Brady is white-hot right now and has thrown for 687 yards over his last two games with nine touchdowns and just one interception. His top targets in Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski will continue to be well-fed while Danny Amendola has seemingly take a stepo forward and is getting a chance to sit at the big kids’ table once again. Meanwhile, the Pats pass defense ranks 19^th in the league, it allows an average of 235 yards through the air and has also allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season. Andrew Luck has passed for over 300 yards in eight of his nine games, has 26 touchdowns on the year and just got a new target buddy in Donte Moncrief in these last couple of weeks. Between Moncrief, T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne and red zone-favorite Dwayne Allen, he’s looking to light it up this week and show that it’s all about the Colts these days.