Fantasy Football Target Stats Analysis: NFL Week 11

After looking over some of the data from last week, I thought it was an interesting Week 11 from a targets/receiving yards standpoint. From a cursory glance, it appeared as if passing was significantly down as just five receivers and two tight ends broke through the 100-yard barrier. But while I looked through the numbers throughout the weeks and the total of seven was a little on the low side, it wasn’t so outlandishly low that the week sticks out as a statistical anomaly.

So then I looked at the number of pass attempts to see if maybe that was the reason, but in Week 11, we had 14 quarterbacks throw the ball at least 35 times. Again, that number was comparable to previous weeks as the difference never fluctuated by more than just a few guys. I was still scratching my head as something still seemed off.

I turned my attention to receptions and that’s where I found my answer. While pass attempts remained fairly similar over the last three weeks, the number of receptions in Week 11 was significantly lower. I’m sure Michael Crabtree and his 117 drops Monday night were major contributors, but actually, it was an across-the-board situation. Only 23 players had six or more receptions in Week 11 which is down from 31 in Week 10 and 28 in Week 9. Maybe the quarterbacks spread it out a little more, you say? I checked. Not the case. Like I said, overall receptions were down for the week.

From there I wondered if this week was just an aberration or if there was a developing trend of which to take notice. I took a look at average pass attempts, receptions and catch rate from this year and last season to do a side-by-side comparison and found that this season, the average team passes the ball 36.2 times per game and has 23 receptions per game for a 63.5-percent catch rate. Last year, the average team passed the ball 35.8 times with 22.5 receptions for a 62.8-percent catch rate. Now while we still have six weeks to go and a whole mess of inclement weather ahead, it’s interesting to see that, so far, receiving numbers are climbing in proportion to the increased passing numbers of the NFL.

So where am I going with all of this? Well, crunching the numbers was fun and it enlightened me to one important fact -- Week 11 was simply a bad week and if your receivers came up short for you (which many of them did), there is no need to sweat it. Maybe you lost your game because A.J. Green got hurt. Maybe it was because players like Crabtree, Odell Beckham, Davante Adams and Larry Fitzgerald came up short. Whatever the case may be, you can put your mind at ease heading into Thanksgiving. There’s no reason to panic. There’s no need to sweat the match-ups for your stars and there is certainly no reason to bench a high-quality pass-catcher for some plash-in-the-pan like Malcolm Mitchell or Dorial Green-Beckham. Stay the course, stick with your studs and move on. Week 12 should bring you a much brighter outlook.

Now let’s hit the targets…

Week 11 Target Leaders

With Rob Gronkowski sidelined with a perforated lung, was there any doubt that Julian Edelman would be the focal point of the offense? Sure, the whole DFS world was fluffing Martellus Bennett, but with some double-coverage thrown his way on several occasions, Tom Brady opted to steer clear of his tight end and sent most of the work Edelman’s way. Yes, guys like Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell found their way into the end zone, but we all know that Brady is a creature of habit and loves to lean on those he’s played with and trusts the most. With a match-up against a porous Jets secondary this week, you can expect a reprise of these target numbers.

Corey Coleman saw a season-high 12 targets and while I expect Josh McCown to continue looking the rookie’s way, he’s going to have to vastly improve on that 33.3-percent catch rate. Now sure, not every pass thrown his way was totally catchable, but he did have two critical drops and when those happen, quarterbacks start to lose faith. It’s just one game and there was a quarterback switch midway through the game, so I’m happy to give him a pass, but if he doesn’t come up with some big catches this week against the Giants, he could simply fall back into the Andrew Hawkins/Ricardo Louis level.

Please, please, please don’t buy into this Jared Cook talk. Please! The guy is total garbage for the first three weeks of the season and then missed the next six with an ankle injury. This was one game which happened to be against a team that ranks 26^th in the league against the tight end position. He’s not Bubba Franks. He’s not Mark Chmura. Hell, he’s not even Jermichael Finley. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t leaned on his tight end in years and he’s not going to start now just because Cook is healthy again. It was a game flow/coverage/match-up thing and nothing more. If you start him this week, tell me how that works out as the Eagles rank fourth against the tight end.

We talk all the time about people who chase last week’s numbers, but often times, we come across a player who is on the rise mid-season and becomes a player you not only need to own, but start regularly as well. I said it about Rishard Matthews a couple of weeks ago and now I’m saying the same thing about Sterling Shepard. Following the bye week, Shepard saw his usual six targets (none inside the red zone), but did some nice work grabbing yards after the catch and found his way into the end zone. Then Victor Cruz’ ankle injury afforded Shepard more snaps and not only did he hit pay-dirt again, but he also got a look inside the red zone. Last week, even with Cruz back on the field, Shepard saw a huge bump in targets with three inside the red zone and again, found the end zone. On top of that, Eli Manning started looking for him on critical third and fourth downs. This match-up with Cleveland is insanely tasty and should, once again, afford Shepard a majority of targets in the Giants passing attack.

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Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

While I was half-joking earlier when I mentioned Michael Crabtree’s drops during Monday’s game, I’m willing to be that we’ll see a separation in target rate between him and Amari Cooper. It may not be for the duration of the season, but it could be for a couple of weeks. We all know that quarterbacks are sensitive to the drops and while Crabtree has been fairly reliable this season, these last two weeks have been a bit unsettling. Cooper is sitting with a 24.5-percent target rate right now to a 23.2-percent mark for Crabtree. We should see a bit more headed Cooper’s way with a similar separation in red zone target percentage as well.

While Marvin Jones’ target percentage continues to drop, you might notice that over the past week, Golden Tate’s has gone from 21.5 to 20.7-percent. Hello Eric Ebron! Finally, the Lions have been true to their word and Ebron has been seeing a nice increase in his target rate. You might look at his actual target numbers and see they’ve dropped over the past three weeks, but so have Matthew Stafford’s passing attempts. Make sure you’re not just blindly looking at targets. That’s why we have this section here every week.

Red Zone Target Leaders

I mentioned this in last week’s column but with the Chargers on a bye, many have likely forgotten – Antonio Gates is two touchdowns away from tying the all-time record for most touchdown catches by a tight end. He and Philip Rivers have a fantastic rapport and Rivers wants his guy to own this record and then surpass is by a considerable margin. Look for Gates’ red zone targets to increase and it starts this week against the Texans. Sure, Houston ranks third against the tight end, so don’t look for the yardage. Just look for the touchdown.

Jason Witten is another tight end to watch this week. While I expect this to be the Ezekiel Elliott show on Thanksgiving, Dak Prescott is going to have to find another top target with Josh Norman blanketing Dez Bryant. The Redskins rank 26^th against the tight end and Witten should easily expose that hole in the defense.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 12 Game to Watch

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

Most will turn to the Cowboys/Redskins game because of the 51.5 over/under, but I still think it’s going to be the Zeke Show and that will limit the receivers for Dallas. The Cardinals/Falcons game, on the other hand looks like it should involve a ton of receivers. Julio Jones will see a lot of Patrick Peterson so I look to Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper to get a strong share of the targets while Devonta Freeman should see a fair number of check-downs as well. For the Cardinals, we’ve seen what happens when we expect Bruce Arians to lean on David Johnson, so I’m expecting Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and J.J. Nelson to get a lot of attention from Carson Palmer. Not to mention Johnson’s pass-catching ability against a Falcons defense that ranks 24^th against running back pass plays.