Byron Buxton : Byron Buxton had a big night Saturday going 2-for-5 with two runs, five RBI and a dinger. Through Saturday, the Minny-phenom was hitting .281 with a .338 OBP, four dingers, eight swipes and 24 runs and RBI. These are solid numbers that are supported by the advanced metrics. Buxton seems to be maturing before our eyes as his walk rate, contact rate, hard hit rate, and rate of going oppo are all up while his chase rate is down. Remember Buxton is still only 25 years old and had already logged 1,000 plate appearances in the bigs before the season. The phrase post-hype sleeper is trite so whatever you want to call it, Buxton was that in March but is fully awake in May. Buy!
Merrill Kelly : Merrill Kelly tossed 5.3 innings of shout out ball Friday to get the W. On the night, Kelly struck out four and walked one. Nice outing. Fantasy owners will take it. However, they should not get too comfortable. His 4.21 ERA, 1.40+ WHIP and pedestrian 7K/9 do not impress. The advanced metrics paint an even more concerning picture. Kelly has a swinging strike rate that is barely 9% (below average) and a first pitch strike rate that is barely 53% (very below average). Bottom line – roll with him for the start against SD and then cut bait before it is too late.
Pablo Sandoval : Pablo Sandoval came off the bench and went yard Saturday continuing an unlikely resurgence for the man with the best nickname in sports: Kung Fu Panda. Through Saturday, the Panda was hitting .293 with six dingers and a 900+ OPS in only 85 plate appearances. Is this 32 year-old version of the Panda the guy who .315 in 2011? Probably not. However, he is a switch-hitter the Giants could flip to a contender in need of a bench bat come the July trading deadline. So, do not count on Panda in August and September but what about the next 10 weeks? Well, the K rate and contact rate are pretty solid, the BABIP does not show undue luck and he is hitting the ball hard a lofty 50% of the time. Deep leaguers and daily leaguers should put the Panda back on their radar screens. [Note: Panda power was on display Sunday as well as he hit a pinch hit dinger to win the game in extras].
Adam Jones : Adam Jones went 1-for-5 with two RBI Saturday as he continues to prove he is far from washed up. On the year, Jones is hitting .285 with nine dingers and 28 RBI. My question is why anyone thought Jones was washed up at 33? After all, he hit .280+ each of the last two years coming into this season. Can Jones continue to produce in 2019. All signs say yes. His BB and contact rates are up and strikeout rate and chase rates are down. More importantly, he is playing every day and producing. Expect that to continue and invest if you can.
Joe Musgrove : Last week we wrote: “Joe Musgrove was awful this week going just three innings giving up eight runs and 11 baserunners. This comes on the heels of a 2.3 inning, five earned run performance in the previous outing. Even with those two atrocities, Musgrove still supports a respectable 4.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and a FIP under 3.00 (showing some bad luck in that ERA). I don’t know about you, but I am doubling down on Joe. Why? First, his advanced metrics are strong: 47% ground balls; 12% swinging strike and a first pitch strike of 62%. Second, Joe has a solid two-step this week facing Arizona in the humidor and San Diego in spacious Petco. Finally, the two bad outings should not erase the five straight quality starts in which he gave up six earned runs in total leading up to those starts. If Musgrove is available on your waiver wire this week, remedy that situation.” Well, score one for us at Fantasy Alarm. All Joey Mus did was go out this week and toss 13 innings, while giving up just five hits and three earned runs, striking out nine and walking just two. Oh, and he notched two wins to boot. If anyone is afraid of the next start against the Dodgers, pry Joey loose!
Finally, the moment you have been waiting for (sort of) -- Schultz says: “As of May 19th, Byron Buxton is hitting .281 with four HRs, 24 RBIs. He's scored 24 runs and stolen eight bases. It is without question the most successful start Buxton has had in his major league career. To put this in perspective, here's what Schultz wrote in September of 2017.
"One future stud-in-waiting may no longer be in-waiting. It's easy to forget that Byron Buxton is only 23-years-old as he's been disappointing roto-owners that can't benefit from mindbogglingly ridiculous centerfield glovework since 2015. One of the most heralded prospects in baseball - as well as a Schultz Says favorite - Buxton has occasionally tantalized but rarely delivered in anything resembling a satisfying manner. After finishing 2016 with a .287, nine HR 22 RBI September, Buxton seemed poised to breakout in 2017, only to, once again disappoint -- until now. In the last month, B-Bux has hit .387 with eight HR, 23 RBIs, scored 24 runs and stolen six bases and has helped keep the Twins locked in as the second team in the AL Wild Card race. This is the once and future prospect everyone's been waiting for. If your league was shortsighted enough to let him sit on the waiver wire, pounce, hold tight and don't let him go until you absolutely, positively have to."
There's something to said for patience. I'm not sure what that something might be but if you kept the faith with Buxton, you are receiving your just reward.”
Response: One of the fun things about having Schultz add his take for readers is that we do not compare notes at all before submission. Thus, sometimes we agree, sometimes we disagree and sometimes we just talk past each other. When we both decide to seize on the same data and same events to make the same point, well, that is kinda cool. At least I think it is.
Player News
Kyren Paris hit a two-run homer in Wednesday’s win for the Angels over the Blue Jays.
That’s the first homer for Paris since April 9 when he went deep twice against Tampa Bay and caused everyone to lose all sense of rational thought. The 23-year-old did also single and walk to improve his on-base percentage to .311,, while the homer bumps his slugging mark to .378. There is long-term upside in Paris with flashes that suggest he can be a fantasy option. Fantasy managers should still absolutely looking elsewhere for options up the middle.
Jorge Soler hit a three-run double in the bottom of the ninth to give the Angels a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Wednesday.
Trent Grisham went 1-for-1 with a game-tying two-run home run in the eighth inning of a 4-3 win over the Padres on Wednesday.
While the Yankees won this game on a walk-off in the 10th inning, Grisham’s game-tying home run in the eighth was the biggest moment. He came on as a pinch-hitter for Jorbit Vibas against the usually stout Jason Adam and smashed a two-strike changeup into the right field seats. This clutch shot will only continue to push Grisham’s playing time in the right direction after he just started eight of the last 10 games, hit either first or second in each, and already has 10 homers in 31 games played this season.
Jeff Hoffman blew a save and picked up a loss Wednesday against the Angels.
Devin Williams struck out three batters with one walk and hit another in a scoreless 10th inning to earn the win against the Padres on Wednesday.
The Yankees entrusted Williams with the all important 10th inning and the inherited ghost runner on second base after their dramatic comeback. While he loaded the bases and had some tense moments, he left the inning unscathed and opened the door for them to win it right after. It should be noted that Luke Weaver came on for what were the most important outs of this game at the time, after Ian Hamilton walked two to begin the eighth inning and Weaver allowed both of those inherited runners to score. He was called upon as the fireman though and will likely get the next save opportunity. Still, this was a massive step in the right direction for Williams.
Max Fried allowed five hits and one run with no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Wednesday.
Fried’s excellent season continued as he set down the Padres easily besides for a mammoth solo home run by Jackson Merrill. It was no matter though, as they rarely threatened otherwise and Fried continued to find his strikeout stuff. This was his fourth outing of the year with at least seven strikeouts, a mark he only hit 10 times last season in 29 starts. Fried with a strikeout rate that’s better than league average – which is where he’s at right now – is a clear top-10 pitcher in fantasy baseball. He’s set for a two-start week coming up against the Mariners and Mets.