Dylan Cease: Dylan Cease made his major league debut this week and got himself a win. On the day, Cease went five innings giving up 3 runs and striking out six. Much of what you saw was as advertised: Cease throws gas (almost 97mph on average); was a bit wild walking four in the outing; and showed his impressive four-pitch repertoire. All that said, the key for me is how Cease recovered from a bad first inning to settle in, keep his team in the game and get himself and his team a win. Indeed, despite a very wild first inning no doubt fueled by nerves, Cease ended the game with more than 60% of his first pitches being strikes. While it is far from a sure thing, Cease looks to me like a guy who had nothing left to prove in the minors and who will thrive in the major leagues. The rewards could be high so take the risk!
Colin Poche: Colin Poche was dealing on Wednesday tossing two perfect innings while striking out five. Since coming up to the show, Poche has 23 strikeouts in just over 15 MLB innings. If you combine minors and majors this year, Poche has 71 strikeouts in under 43 innings. That is dealing! The advanced metrics back up the K numbers. For example, Poche has a gaudy MLB 22% swinging strike rate and an even more ostentatious chase rate of almost 45%. Yes, 45%! Will Poche close? Maybe. Will he post strong ratios and a good helping of strikeouts? It sure looks that way! Buy.
Jose Urquidy: Speaking of pitchers with gaudy minor league numbers, Jose Urquidy surely qualifies. In 76.2 innings, Urquidy has mowed down 104 hitters. That is setting them up and sitting them down. His first MLB start was a bit shaky but Houston plans to keep him in the rotation. Given that Houston seems to know pitching, will win games and has a bullpen to bail out Urquidy when or if necessary, Urquidy is a worthy add. Oh, and if you need more ammunition, consider that Urquidy posted over a 16% swing strike rate to support his minor league K numbers. [Note: after I wrote this but before publishing, Urquidy had a bad Sunday outing. It is worrisome but could reduce the price for a high upside K pitcher].
Kole Calhoun : Kole Calhoun hit his 19th dinger of the year Friday. On the day, Kole was 2-4 with a run and two RBI to go along with that dinger. What is significant is that 19 dingers is what Kole hit all year in 2017 and all year in 2018. Juiced ball or not, the power has clearly increased. That said, he is still a buy low candidate. Folks will focus on the low .238 batting average. You should focus on the depressed BABIP, very low soft contact rate, reduced chase rate and solid line drive rate. Hitting in front of (or sometimes right after) Trout and Ohtani should yield Calhoun plenty of chances to score runs and drive them in. Buy.
Ariel Jurado : Last week we wrote: “Ariel Jurado pitched very well Thursday tossing seven shutout innings while striking out four. On the year, Jurado boasts an ERA under 4.00. Can he continue to provide quality innings? I would not count on it. Here are some of my concerns: Jurado strikes out fewer than six and a half per nine innings; he has a swinging strike rate under 8%; has an xFIP that is almost a run higher than his ERA; Texas will become an even worse place for pitchers as the summer wears on; and hitters have posted a hard hit rate of over 40% against him. With games this upcoming week against Mike Trout , Shohei Ohtani and the Angels followed by a date with the Twins, selling or benching Jurado is the only play.” Well, I hope you listened and benched Jurado. Against the Angels, Jurado gave up six runs in six innings (including two dingers) to take the loss. The Angels were making strong contact in that outing as Jurado’s soft contact number was under 20% for the game. I would continue to stay away. You have been warned again!
Finally, the moment you have been waiting for (sort of) -- Schultz says: “Longtime readers of The Week That Was (dating back to those years when we were on some other web site whose name I can never remember) may be aware that The Overlord and Schultz are rarely co-owners of a fantasy sports franchise. (This may or may not have anything to with a lengthy debate as to whether William Green should be taken over Jamal Lewis). However, this does not mean your humble narrator refrains from seeking advice from a member of the FSTA Hall of Fame.
Schultz will now summarize a pre-auction discussion that was not conducted this concisely. Trust me, the specifics would not assist the narrative.
Schultz: "All things being equal, do I keep Buster Posey or Franmil Reyes ? I can only keep one and it is a keeper league."
Overlord: "No brainer. Posey."
32-year-old Buster Posey is hitting .255 with 3 HR and 22 RBI and scored only 23 runs. 24-year-old Franmil Reyes is hitting only .252 and driven in 42. However, his 25 homers means he has driven himself in more times than Posey has driven in his entire team and has crossed the plate on his own home runs more than Posey has scored all year.
Without using the words "position scarcity" - which doesn't apply here as Schultz acquired Mitch Garver and Chance Sisco in free agency - Schultz challenges The Overlord to defend this mistake.”
Response: Fair points and no doubt, Reyes has outperformed Posey. That said, my preference for Posey was not only based on positional scarcity but also the dramatic uncertainty regarding playing time in the Padres outfield. Yes, with the benefit of hindsight, we all know Franchy Cordero got hurt, Manuel Margot gets benched way too much despite being far and away the best fielder and Josh Naylor and Travis Jankowski have been non-factors. However, we did not know these things back in March! [Oh, and Jamaal Lewis ran for 2,000 yards in that year referenced by the Baron of the Bottom of the Page!]
Player News
TJ Friedl went 2-for-3 with two solo home runs and a walk in a 4-3 win over the Braves on Wednesday.
This was the ‘TJ Friedl’ show as he opened the game by homering off a hanging curveball from Grant Holmes in a game the Reds would never trail. He took Holmes deep again in his next at-bat and this was his first multi-home run game since August 14th of last season. While his tools will never jump off the page, he’s still hitting lead-off nearly every day for the Reds.
Emilio Pagán allowed one hit and struck out two batters in one inning of work to earn the save against the Braves on Wednesday.
Pagán did well here to put yesterday’s blown save behind him. He worked around a two-out single from Michael Harris to set the Braves down with ease and is running a 31.7% strikeout rate, which would be his highest since way back in 2019. The team clearly still trusts him to be their guy in the ninth inning.
Drake Baldwin went 2-for-3 with a solo home run on Wednesday against the Reds.
Baldwin’s solo home run in the fifth inning started the Braves comeback that would eventually be for naught, but he has managed to keep hitting despite falling into a back-up role since Sean Murphy returned from injury. He’s only playing one of every three games – very standard for a back-up catcher – yet has maintained some relevance in two-catcher formats with his .796 OPS on the season and three home runs in his last 15 starts.
Grant Holmes allowed seven hits and four runs with one walk and five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday.
TJ Friedl burned Holmes for a lead-off home run on a hanging curveball and not much came easily after that. Friedl got Holmes for another homer in his next at-bat and in all, he’d given up four runs through the first four innings. He did manage to pitch into the sixth inning though and still forced 12 swings-and-misses, but that curveball command was spotty all game and forced him to lean on his slider a bit more than he would’ve liked. He’s set for a two-start week against the Nationals and then Red Sox in Fenway Park.
Orioles acquired RHP Luis F. Castillo from the Mariners for cash considerations.
Castillo heads to Triple-A Norfolk as quality extra starting pitching depth for the Orioles, who are struggling to find solutions for the back of their rotation which currently features struggling veterans Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson. The 30-year-old righty holds a career 5.06 ERA in five appearances (two starts) in the majors.
Orioles designated LHP Walter Pennington for assignment.
Pennington has been jettisoned from Baltimore’s 40-man roster to make room for the club to acquire Luis F. Castillo from the Mariners. The 27-year-old lefty was claimed off waivers last week from the Rangers.