A bullpen sleeper with great metrics and a couple of underpriced hitters highlight this week’s Week That Was.
Brandon Brennan : Through Saturday night this week Brandon Brennan has tossed four scoreless innings and picked up a win. Also, through Saturday, Brennan’s stats are well, sick: 0.00 ERA; 0.66 WHIP; >K/IP; fastball velo >94; 64% ground balls; 16% swinging strike rate; 68% first pitch strike rate and a whopping 41% chase rate. This does not appear to be a fluke as the ground ball rates have been over 50% at every level and the swinging strike rates 15% or more the last two years. Will Brennan get saves in Seattle? Who knows? However, the “down side” appears to be great ratios and some vulture wins. Not too shabby. [Thanks to Mike Podhorzer for picking up Brennan in Tout Wars which caused me to look deeper].
Neil Walker : Neil Walker went 2-5 with a dinger and two runs Saturday. That is the good news. The bad news: through Saturday, he was still well below the Mendoza line at .190 and each of his three dingers were solo shots. So, is Saturday the beginning of better things to come? I vote yes. First, Walker has been insanely unlucky in the early going. His BABIP is a putrid .167 (career level is .301) despite a torrid hard hit rate of almost 58% (5th in MLB thus far). Last year, Walker started slowly and got better as the year went on. Unlike last year, he had a full spring which means the surge is coming earlier. I am in. Oh, and by the way, that he is eligible at 1b, 2b, 3b and in many leagues, OF, doesn’t hurt.
Hunter Dozier : Hunter Dozier went 2-3 and a run scored on Saturday. Productive, but hardly a line that jumps off the page. So why is he featured here? Good question. Answer: I think he is a bargain on which loyal readers can pounce. His year-long stats through Saturday are ok: .256 with three dingers and six RBI. However, from Sunday to Saturday, Dozier hit .346. Now that is a sit up and take notice number. What can we expect going forward? First, the .242 BABIP says the average will continue to increase from .256. Second, the 40+% hard hit rate further supports point number one. Third, the vastly increased contact rate and substantially decreased chase rate also bode well. Finally, he is walking more and striking out less than a year ago. Add in the fact that you have multi-positional eligibility and a team that will let him ride out slumps and you have a potential bargain on your hands.
Eduardo Rodríguez : Eduardo Rodríguez finally pitched like the ERod we expected back in March. Friday night ERod tossed 6 and 2/3 innings of two-run ball walking none and striking out 8. After two duds, ERod is back on course. Why was I so high on him back in March? First, three years of 11+ swinging strike rates. Second, he has improved his first pitch strike rate each of the last three years. Third, the league hit the ball hard a weak 28% of the time. Finally, as bad as the Sox have been, they will score runs and provide plenty of opportunity for ERod to get the W’s. With his ugly year-long stats, ERod may well be available in a trade from an unwary owner in your league. If so, act quickly!
Joe Musgrove : Last week we wrote: “Joe Musgrove twirled seven innings of shutout ball Friday giving up three hits and one walk while striking out 8. Combined with his two shutout innings of relief to start the year, Musgrove now has nine blank frames and counting. The window to buy is closing fast! Want proof? OK, here goes. First, Joe has posted swinging strike rates over 11 and a 45% ground ball rate each of the last two years. Second, he induced more swings outside the zone last year than the year before. Third, Musgrove upped his first pitch strike rate to over 68%. Elite advanced metrics + stellar early results + Ray Searage as a pitching coach = roto value! Buy!” Did ya listen? Did ya? We hope so. All Musgrove did was go out and pitch 6.3 innings while giving up no earned runs and 4 hits while striking out 6. The window may already be closed but if he is still available by FAAB or trade, grab him for his start this week vs the Tigers and for all of 2019!
Melky Cabrera : Through Saturday, the Melkman was hitting .432. Yep, .432. Okay, carry on.
Finally, the moment you have been waiting for all winter (ok, maybe all month) -- Schultz says: “Schultz thought it would be fun as well as topical to discourse on the possibility of Chris Davis going 0-for-the-season or at the very least 0-for-April. Setting aside the ignominy of no longer being the best Chris Davis in baseball and that the A's slugger surely must have changed the spelling of his name so as not to be confused with his less-worthy namesake, the time seemed ripe to discuss whether the Mendoza line needed to be reconsidered. If for no other reason than to spite Schultz, Davis went 3 for 5 on Saturday, ruining what would surely have been a masterpiece of roto-literature.
Speaking on underproducing, while the rest of Crash Davis' season will likely be different shade of underwhelming, Franmil Reyes ' probably will whelm, if not overwhelm. If you look at all of the acronym-based, x-stats that no one really understands, they apparently all say that Reyes should be hitting for a higher average and slugging more home runs than his stat line says he is actually doing. (At least that's what people who claim to be able to decipher advanced metrics say that's what the stats say). The eyeball test - otherwise known as the time-tested original manner of detecting baseball merit - should tell you all you need to know about Reyes. He has a sweet swing, a good eye and significant power. If you can buy in low, do so. Especially, if you are in a keeper league.
Speaking of buying low, the chance to do on Touki Toussaint may be dwindling. Immensely talented, Toussaint lost control of the final spot in the Braves' rotation in the same manner he lost his control at the end of spring training. After his performance against the Mets - striking out 7 over 6 relief innings - the Braves are wisely moving him out of the bullpen. (He also managed to get 4 at-bats, which seems like it should be some type of record for a non-starting pitcher). There will be some hiccups as Toussaint re acclimates himself to the major leagues but there is a lot of value to be had here.”
Response: Love Touki! Nice call there. As to advanced metrics and the eye test, I advocate using both!
Player News
Andrés Giménez was removed from Wednesday’s game against the Angels with right quad tightness.
It sounds like a precautionary measure. There should be an update on his status prior to Thursday’s series finale out in Los Angeles.
Kyren Paris hit a two-run homer in Wednesday’s win for the Angels over the Blue Jays.
That’s the first homer for Paris since April 9 when he went deep twice against Tampa Bay and caused everyone to lose all sense of rational thought. The 23-year-old did also single and walk to improve his on-base percentage to .311,, while the homer bumps his slugging mark to .378. There is long-term upside in Paris with flashes that suggest he can be a fantasy option. Fantasy managers should still absolutely looking elsewhere for options up the middle.
Jorge Soler hit a three-run double in the bottom of the ninth to give the Angels a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Wednesday.
Trent Grisham went 1-for-1 with a game-tying two-run home run in the eighth inning of a 4-3 win over the Padres on Wednesday.
While the Yankees won this game on a walk-off in the 10th inning, Grisham’s game-tying home run in the eighth was the biggest moment. He came on as a pinch-hitter for Jorbit Vibas against the usually stout Jason Adam and smashed a two-strike changeup into the right field seats. This clutch shot will only continue to push Grisham’s playing time in the right direction after he just started eight of the last 10 games, hit either first or second in each, and already has 10 homers in 31 games played this season.
Jeff Hoffman blew a save and picked up a loss Wednesday against the Angels.
Devin Williams struck out three batters with one walk and hit another in a scoreless 10th inning to earn the win against the Padres on Wednesday.
The Yankees entrusted Williams with the all important 10th inning and the inherited ghost runner on second base after their dramatic comeback. While he loaded the bases and had some tense moments, he left the inning unscathed and opened the door for them to win it right after. It should be noted that Luke Weaver came on for what were the most important outs of this game at the time, after Ian Hamilton walked two to begin the eighth inning and Weaver allowed both of those inherited runners to score. He was called upon as the fireman though and will likely get the next save opportunity. Still, this was a massive step in the right direction for Williams.