Another year, another baseball season with me addressing various categories for your fantasy squad and helping lift your team in certain statistical categories. The Category Impact will do just that. I will recommend a few guys for a particular category that can give you an impact, whether it’s for a few weeks or a long-term solution. Each week, be sure to check out my Twitter (@colbyrconway) and vote on which category should be featured in the week’s Category Impact.
Based on the results of the Twitter poll from earlier in the week, we will be talking about stolen bases in this week’s edition of Category Impact, after speed just squeaked by saves/holds.
Without further ado….
Rosell Herrera , OF MIA
Herrera is just another guy that was a burner in the minors, but hasn’t displayed much success at the big league level to date. Last year, he was just 3-for-8 in stolen base attempts, but luckily for fantasy owners, he’s a more efficient 3-for-4 on the young season. In just 12 games, Herrera has attempted four steals, which is excellent, and with a 20+ stolen base season at the Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels, he has an opportunity to get there at the game’s highest level. Now, he will need to get on-base more than he currently is (.233 OBP), but that .192 BABIP isn’t doing him any favors. He’s not making a ton of hard contact to date, but his xBA of .239 indicates that he’s underperforming at this juncture of the season. He needs to display long-term efficiency on the bases, but his 28.8 ft/s sprint speed ranks in the top six percent of the league. His ownership is low, but if he gets hot, and on base more frequently, the steals should come in bunches.
Leury García , OF CWS
Don’t look now, but Garcia is amongst the league’s best, trailing only Dee Gordon , Tommy Pham and Mallex Smith in steals this season. He’s tied with four other guys with three swipes on the year, and it appears as if he’s fully tapping into the stolen base potential he displayed years ago in the minors. Nearly a decade ago, Garcia was posting a stolen base total above 30 in the lower ranks of the minors, and at just 28 years old, his speed shouldn’t have slipped much.
YEAR | LEVEL | G | SB |
---|---|---|---|
2009 | A | 83 | 19 |
2010 | A | 89 | 47 |
2011 | A+ | 109 | 30 |
2012 | AA | 100 | 31 |
2013 | AAA (2 Teams) | 55 | 15 |
2014 | MLB | 74 | 11 |
2015 | AAA | 90 | 30 |
2016 | AAA | 84 | 18 |
2017 | MLB | 87 | 8 |
2018 | MLB | 82 | 12 |
His time from home to first in 2018 was comparable to Adam Engel (mentioned below), Harrison Bader and Ozzie Albies , all of whom have 20+ stolen base potential. While his BABIP and OBP will inevitably come closer to his career marks, he has shown that he can get on base over 30 percent of the time the past two years, and his willingness to run in the early going of 2019 is encouraging.
Terrance Gore , OF KC
Twenty career big league appearances. 28 career stolen bases. Yes, you did read that right. Gore has appeared in 67 big league games, logged 20 plate appearances, and is a crisp 24-for-28 on the bases. He got a start the other night and a day or two earlier, he not only recorded his first hit – tying a career-high in a season—but he, of course, stole a base. Gore hasn’t been thrown out since 2017 and with the Royals likely initiating a tank job, it’s not unfathomable to believe that the Royals will give him starts every now and again. If he’s not starting, he can still rack up the stolen bases in bunches as a pinch runner. For what it’s worth, all 28 of his stolen bases in his career have come with him as a pinch runner. Additionally, 20 of those stolen bases have come in “high leverage” situations, per Fangraphs. Fantasy owners of Gore need to keep in that he is a below average hitter, so while some starts may seem like a good thing, it’s a double-edged sword. At least when he pinch runs, he already starts on base, but when he starts in the outfield, he has to find a way on base (career .250 OBP).
Adam Engel , OF CWS
If memory serves correctly, which it typically does, Engel appeared in at least one Category Impact last season, especially when talking about speed demons. While he has yet to steal a base in 2019, the steals will come, do not worry. In a vacuum, Engel could be a 30+ stolen base guy with his elite speed, however, a career .258 on-base percentage certainly doesn’t do anyone any favors. In 2018, his sprint speed was elite, tied with Billy Hamilton and Trea Turner , and trailing only Byron Buxton , Magneuris Sierra and Roman Quinn . For the time being, Engel has a regular role in the team’s outfield, and he showed last year that he can approach 20 stolen bases with a sub-.280 on-base percentage. It’s not ideal, and he will hurt your offense aside from stolen bases, but this category is one that you just have to suck it up. He’s successful about two-thirds of the time when he runs and as long as he has a role with the big league club, Engel does have the potential to make his mark in the stolen base department.
Honorable Mention: Ketel Marte , Jason Heyward , Keon Broxton
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@colbyrconway) to get your vote in for next week’s edition!
Player News
Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters Walker Buehler (shoulder) is likely to return on Tuesday against the Mets.
Buehler appears on track to rejoin Boston’s rotation mix early next week after missing a couple weeks with shoulder bursitis. The 30-year-old has another bullpen session on tap for Thursday before he’s officially cleared to return.
Masyn Winn went 4-for-5 with a homer, three RBI and a walk as the Cardinals trounced the Phillies 14-7 in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader.
The Cardinals were down 5-1 after one tonight, but they dominated the game afterwards. Winn reached seven times in all today, raising his OPS from .769 to .836. That’s pretty good for a guy who opened up 0-for-18 through five games.
Sonny Gray surrendered seven runs in 3 2/3 innings in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Phillies.
Still better than Aaron Nola. Gray surrendered three homers for the ninth time in his career. He’s turned in quality starts in four of his last six outings, but since he’s given up 13 runs in the other two, his ERA stands at 4.50. He has a 51/12 K/BB in 50 innings for the season; he just needs to keep the ball in the park. He’ll face the Tigers next.
Aaron Nola was pounded for nine runs and 12 hits in 3 1/3 innings by the Cardinals in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader.
Nola’s 83 pitches produced six missed swings and 13 hard-hit balls, which just isn’t a very good ratio. His velocity was fine, and while he didn’t miss bats tonight, that hasn’t really been an issue over the course of the season. He’s just giving up an unusual amount of hard contact when he gets hit, and it’s hard to see any quick fixes here. He’s 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA, and now he has to go pitch in Coors Field next time out.
Alec Burleson went 3-for-5 with a homer and four RBI versus the Phillies in the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader.
Burleson has three homers in six games after going his first 30 appearances without one. He was losing at-bats against righties for a time, but that seems over now with Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker struggling. His fantasy value remains limited to NL-only leagues.
Ryan Weathers allowed two hits and one run with one walk and five strikeouts over five innings in a 3-1 win over the Cubs on Wednesday.
This was just about as good a debut as anyone could have expected out of Weathers against this talented Cubs’ lineup. Their only run was a solo home run by Seiya Suzuki and Weathers had practically no stressful moments. He showed the same increased velocity – average of 97 mph, topping out at 99 mph – that generated so much buzz during spring training plus his solid sweeper and changeup. He will try to build on this start next time out, which is scheduled to come against these same Cubs.