Another year, another baseball season with me addressing various categories for your fantasy squad and helping lift your team in certain statistical categories. The Category Impact will do just that. I will recommend a few guys for a particular category that can give you an impact, whether it’s for a few weeks or a long-term solution. Each week, be sure to check out my Twitter (@colbyrconway) and vote on which category should be featured in the week’s Category Impact.
It feels like the season just started yesterday, but we are already a few weeks in and this is the FOURTH installment of your beloved Category Impact article. Based on the results of the Twitter poll from earlier in the week, we will be talking about boosting your fantasy team’s bullpen!
Without further ado….
Nick Anderson , MIA RP – Anderson boasts an elite K/9 (18.00) and BB/9 (under 2.00) and an incredible 97.8 strand rate through his first 13 appearances of the season. Despite failing to notch a save at this point in time, he’s the team’s most dominant reliever and is waiting in the wings to take over the closer gig. His FIP (2.60) and xFIP (0.97) indicate that he’s been a bit unlucky to date, and that 2.79 ERA of his should continue to dip as his string of dominance continues. Additionally, should that .389 BABIP return to a more normal mark, he’s only going to get BETTER. Sure, he allows a high exit velocity and hard hit percentage (see below), but that strikeout percentage is real, thanks to a nice 12-6 curveball and a hard fastball.
Sergio Romo leads the team with three saves, but his 7.88 K/9, 4.50 BB/9 and 6.75 ERA is far from shut down as a closer. Adam Conley also has a save, but a 6.00 ERA and a 3.00 K/B ratio is far from inspiring. Both of these options pale in comparison to Anderson and his tactical arsenal.
Robert Stephenson , CIN RP – If you have listened to any of the podcasts with Greg Jewett and myself, you’ll know that my podcast partner is BIG on Stephenson in most fantasy formats. In NL-only formats, especially leagues that value holds, Stephenson is a must add. Not only has he been dominant this season, but he’s next in line for saves in Cincinnati. Furthermore, regular closer Raisel Iglesias has displayed some chinks in his armor this season. Conversely, Stephenson has posted a 40.9 percent strikeout rate in his first nine outings, while inducing a career high 39.1 percent ground ball rate and 21.1 SwStr%. With all of that in mind, it’s no surprise that Stephenson is inducing a career low 55.1 percent contact rate, and getting opponents to chase out of the zone over one-third of the time. Of all of the relievers on this list, besides Nick Anderson , Stephenson is the closest to saves and should be owned in all formats, even shallower setups.
John Brebbia , STL RP – Jordan Hicks is the unquestioned closer, and even though Jon Gant has the other recorded save for the team, he’s not the next man up, at least in my eyes. That next man up spot belongs to the 28-year-old righty John Brebbia . Despite throwing the majority of his innings in low leverage, he’s starting to get some work in medium and high leverage situations. Per FanGraphs, in Brebbia’s lone high leverage outing of the season, he recorded one strikeout in a perfect 1-2-3 inning. There are some long-term concerns with Brebbia’s role, especially when Alex Reyes and Carlos Martínez return to relief roles, but for now, while he’s out performing his expectations, he’s worthy of an addition in deeper formats.
Per the chart above, courtesy of Baseball Savant, in terms of expected wOBA, Brebbia has been solid in 2019, and much better than last year and the MLB average. Riding a strong fastball and a developing slider, he’s your standard two-pitch reliever out of the pen with the potential to earn more important innings for a division contender.
Adam Cimber , CLE RP – Is Cimber in line to get saves in the Cleveland bullpen? No, not unless Brad Hand goes down with an injury. However, he’s been an effective reliever who has been much better than some of his statistics may tell. Riding a .160 BABIP, Cimber’s ERA of 4.50 is misleading, considering his FIP (2.02) and xFIP (3.35). His strikeout rate isn’t particularly overwhelming, coming in at just one batter per inning, but he’s generating more swings-and-misses than he did in 2018. Furthermore, that’s not just with his fastball, but his slider and sinker as well.
His arsenal has also changed this season, as he’s throwing his fastball less, and his slider more, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, seeing as his fastball generated a .281 batting average against and his slider came in at just .250. As a sidewinder lacking top-end velocity, Cimber lives in the bottom of the zone and relies on the movement on his pitches and the deception in his delivery. The strikeout potential isn’t elite, but Cimber will continue to pitch at a high level and the statistics will start painting the same story as well.
Honorable Mention: Travis Lakins, Hansel Robles
Player News
Robbie Ray allowed three runs over six innings and struck out nine in the Giants’ 10-6 win over the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.
Ray joined Max Fried as the only pitchers off to 6-0 starts thus far this season, and the Giants have gone 9-0 in his outings. His peripherals are significantly worse than his 3.04 ERA, but he’s definitely performed better in his last four starts than he did in his first five, when he seemed more lucky than good. He’ll pitch at home against the Royals next time out.
Brandon Pfaadt fell to 6-3 after giving up four runs in four innings Tuesday against the Giants.
All of the runs came on a Christian Koss homer in the second, though Pfaadt was still shaky over the rest of the outing. There is some mixed-league value here, but it’s a fine idea to bench him with a road start against the Dodgers coming up next.
Jung Hoo Lee went 2-for-5 with a three-run homer versus the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.
The homer off Joe Mantiply, which pretty much put away the game in the eighth, was Lee’s fifth of the year. He had come into this one hitting .250/.279/.327 over this previous 27 games.
Christian Koss’s first major leaguer homer was a grand slam off Brandon Pfaadt in Tuesday’s win over the D-backs.
Koss took an inside breaking ball just over the wall in left to homer in his 56th plate appearance as a major leaguer. He’s batting .241/.293/.296 while filling in at second base with Tyler Fitzgerald and Casey Schmidt on the shelf. With both of those guys currently on rehab assignments, it’s possible Koss will be sent back to Triple-A soon.
Josh Naylor had a two-run homer and a two-run single against the Giants in Tuesday’s loss.
The homer off Spencer Bivens in the ninth was his first since Apr. 17, and Naylor had as many RBI tonight as in his previous 13 games combined. He has five homers and 27 RBI in 42 games on the season.
Jacob Wilson went 4-for-5 and hit his fourth and fifth homers Tuesday as the A’s crushed the Dodgers 11-1.
He was on base all five times up, as he also reached on an error. So much of Wilson’s contact is rather weak that it’s always unexpected when he muscles up and hits a ball 380 feet, but he’s definitely demonstrated that he’s capable. He’s up to .363/.389/.512 for the season after tonight. He has 58 hits, yet just 41 hard-hit balls. His barrel and homer totals are also equal, though the league as a whole has a little more than twice as many barrels as homers.