Fantasy Baseball Category Impact: Quality Starts and Wins

Another year, another baseball season with me addressing various categories for your fantasy squad and helping lift your team in certain statistical categories. The Category Impact will do just that. I will recommend a few guys for a particular category that can give you an impact, whether it’s for a few weeks or a long-term solution. Each week, be sure to check out my Twitter (@colbyrconway) and vote on which category should be featured in the week’s Category Impact.

Based on the results of the Twitter poll from earlier in the week, we will be talking about quality starts and wins in this week’s edition of Category Impact.

Without further ado….

Freddy Peralta , SP MIL

The low down on Peralta is that he should be owned in your fantasy league, but if he isn not, scurry to free agency and scoop him up pronto. His first outing wasn’t very good, but he followed it up with an absolutely dominant outing against the Reds for his first win and quality start of the season. He has big time potential in terms of strikeouts, but he can provide fantasy owners with some juice in terms of wins and quality starts. The concerns of him being a two-pitch guy are noted, as his fastball and curveball have combined for over 97 percent of his pitches in each of his first two starts of the season, but he’s shown he can make it work in positive matchups. He’s likely owned in most formats outside of shallow leagues, but his potential impact in fantasy baseball extends beyond the win column.

Domingo Germán , SP NYY

We’ve seen one start from German here in 2019, and outside of the five walks, he was excellent. In 85.2 innings last season, he posted a walk rate of 8.8 percent, so the 23.8 percent rate he posted in his season debut is surely poised to be an outlier. Things will even itself out over the course of the season, and that will begin with his next start, which just so happens to be a tasty one against a subpar Baltimore Orioles team. It’s been a favorable start for German and his arsenal, opening against the Tigers, and now getting the Orioles. When German found the strike zone in his first start of the year, he induced a ton of swinging strikes, to a tune of a 20.3 SwStr%. Don’t buy into the totality of the first start, but be excited about the whiffs and the offense behind him.

Trevor Williams , SP PIT

Despite lacking an overpowering arsenal and any true dominant pitch, Williams continues to get outs and keep the Pittsburgh Pirates in ball games. His FIP and xFIP may better correlate to his ERA as the season evens itself out but the early returns from Williams have been encouraging. Over his last 14 starts, Williams has posted a 1.20 ERA, and since the start of the 2018 season, Williams’ 3.01 ERA is 12^th-best amongst qualified starters. Additionally, Williams’ 28.7 percent hard hit rate is the seventh-best since the start of last season. The guy just finds a way to limit hard contact, and from the rolling chart below, you’ll see that Williams continually induces below-average contact.

The Pirates are a decent ball club and there is somewhat of a punch in that lineup. As long as he continues to outproduce his FIP and xFIP, he’ll work deep into games and reward fantasy owners with quality starts and wins.

David Hess , SP BAL

Quite surprisingly, it’s been a nice little run to start the year for the 25-year-old righty. After a 3-10 record with a 4.88 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 2018, Hess was excellent in his first start of the year against the Toronto Blue Jays. After a quality relief outing against the Yankees, Hess fired 6.1 shutout innings with no hits and just one walk while striking out eight. The appeal with Hess is that while his pitch usage has stayed somewhat similar, outsie of slider usage and the dissipation of a curveball, Hess’ velocity is worth noting.

The Orioles are going to leave him in the rotation and Hess now gets a matchup against a Yankee offense that will be without at least Giancarlo Stanton , Miguel Andújar , Troy Tulowitzki and Aaron Hicks . The Bronx Bombers have also been striking out in bunches, offering some strikeout potential for Hess in the short term. Wins could be elusive, but Hess could be a quality start machine at a bargain for fantasy owners.

Jake Odorizzi , SP MIN

Albeit against a Cleveland lineup that lacks major punch with Francisco Lindor out of action, Odorizzi dominated on the rubber, punching out 11 batters in just six innings of work. The lone hit he allowed was a solo shot to Hanley Ramírez , which is the same old song and dance for Odorizzi and his career 1.25 HR/9. However, he has shown throughout his career that he can get on some nasty streaks with dazzling performances, and a good Minnesota offense backing him should give him opportunities for wins and quality starts. Despite striking out 11 guys in his first start, he did by swings-and-misses out of the zone, as his O-Swing% of 19.2 is well below average. Being a fly ball pitcher, being forced to come in the zone often can result in a lot of damage, so as long as that O-Swing rate gets closer to his career mark of 31.4 percent, it will be much of the same. Be careful with Odorizzi, as he has a way of charming fantasy owners, just to get shellacked around the yard for a few starts in a row. His next start against Philadelphia is rocky, but he could face Detroit in his next outing, which would be tantalizing.

Honorable Mention: Trevor Richards , Matt Shoemaker

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@colbyrconway) to get your vote in for next week’s edition!