Members of #FANation spoke up and this week, we are looking to lower our fantasy team’s earned run average (ERA) and WHIP. Hey, I’m right there in the trenches with you, as I should probably heed my own advice and find some ways to improve my pitching staff. There are four pitchers below, as well as a handful of honorable mentions that you should contemplate about adding to your staff. Depending on your league format and size, some of these players might be available, but if not, consider adding them for your title run.
Without further ado…
Pablo Lopez , SP MIA – It’s been a rough go of things for Lopez to begin the season, and May was arguably his worst month as a member of the Marlins rotation, however there is some optimism moving forward with the 23-year-old right-hander. He’s starting to throw his sinker less and less, which has resulted in that pitch becoming more effective. He overused it in the beginning of the season, but keeping that pitch in his back pocket is far more effective than forcing it be his trusty stead. He’s relying on his four-seamer more, which has helped his offspeed stuff. The chart below, per Baseball Savant, indicates that while the xBA against him as steadily increased, it should progress to the mean, and it’s starting to show some signs of coming back below MLB average.
Lastly, per Baseball Savant, here are some similar pitchers based solely on velocity and movement: Stephen Strasburg and Aaron Nola . Hmmm interesting….
Jason Vargas , SP NYM – I cannot believe I’m saying this. Let me take a shot of whiskey quick, come to my senses, re-examine the numbers and get back to you….. Yeah. This simply cannot be denied. Jason Vargas is a viable fantasy asset, and he’s owned in under one percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues at time of writing. WHAT!? Yes, I know. It’s crazy. For the season, Vargas is sporting a 3.57 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and he’s coming off a, must I say, dominant complete game shutout against the San Francisco Giants. Over his last three starts, he allowed just two earned runs, and only six earned runs over his last five starts. Believe it or not, Vargas has the second-best ERA among the Mets’ starting pitchers. Vargas is walking more batters than he has in his career and he’s riding a .280 BABIP, and the difference between his ERA (3.57) and FIP (4.28) isn’t incredibly stark, but it is a likely sign that regression is forthcoming for the veteran southpaw. With a fastball coming in the mid-80s, he certainly isn’t going to blow the smoke past anyone, but he can dice his way through opposing hitters by exhibiting pinpoint command and it’s encouraging that he’s kept the opposing hitters’ wOBA under MLB average for quite some time now in 2019.
John Means , SP BAL – Means won’t help you in terms of strikeouts whatsoever, and none of his Statcast peripherals jump off the page. By some of these peripherals, Means is an average pitcher, and an underwhelming fantasy asset. However, Means has been far from average. Of pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched on the season, Means has the ninth-best ERA, despite a FIP and xFIP indicating he’s been the benefactor of some good luck. He has the 18th-best WHIP in baseball following the aforementioned criteria, ahead of Blake Snell , Max Scherzer and José Berríos . Means lives off his changeup, which has resulted in the opposition hitting just .167 against that pitch. His slider has resulted in a .148 batting average against, and with a fastball that resides in the low-90s, he needs those secondary pitches to remain effective. For the time being, he’s a valuable asset in terms of ERA and WHIP, and the low walk rate helps offset some regression in terms of ERA and hard contact allowed. Yes, the difference between the ERA and FIP is stark, and the regression monster is coming, especially in that ball park, but Means still has some value to fantasy owners in deeper formats.
Amir Garrett , RP CIN – Garrett studied up what happened last season, especially with his arsenal, and made some changes here in 2019. He’s throwing his slider, arguably his best pitch, far more often, and is using the fastball and sinker off of his slider. His nasty slider is generating an absurd number of whiffs, and opponents are hitting just .083 against that devastating pitch. The change in his arsenal has really reduced the number of barreled balls opponents are squaring up against the left-hander. Take a look for yourself, courtesy of Baseball Savant.
Furthermore, he’s inducing more ground balls, up over 11 percent compared to last season, and his 36.5 percent strikeout rate is just absurd. The southpaw has become a reliable setup arm for the Reds, and over the last month, he’s posted a 1.64 ERA with a whopping 20 strikeouts in 11 innings of work. If you want to improve your team’s ERA, Garrett will be a huge boost. The walk rate is a bit high, which hurts his production in terms of WHIP, but he’ll definitely help your ERA.
Honorable Mention: Ryne Harper , Evan Marshall , Ryan Buchter
Player News
Andrés Giménez left Wednesday’s game against the Angels with a potential injury.
Giménez appeared to suffer some sort of leg injury while legging out a bunt hit in the seventh inning. He managed to remain in the contest initially, but was replaced by Addison Barger at second base in the bottom of the frame. There should be an update on his status following the contest.
TJ Friedl went 2-for-3 with two solo home runs and a walk in a 4-3 win over the Braves on Wednesday.
This was the ‘TJ Friedl’ show as he opened the game by homering off a hanging curveball from Grant Holmes in a game the Reds would never trail. He took Holmes deep again in his next at-bat and this was his first multi-home run game since August 14th of last season. While his tools will never jump off the page, he’s still hitting lead-off nearly every day for the Reds.
Emilio Pagán allowed one hit and struck out two batters in one inning of work to earn the save against the Braves on Wednesday.
Pagán did well here to put yesterday’s blown save behind him. He worked around a two-out single from Michael Harris to set the Braves down with ease and is running a 31.7% strikeout rate, which would be his highest since way back in 2019. The team clearly still trusts him to be their guy in the ninth inning.
Drake Baldwin went 2-for-3 with a solo home run on Wednesday against the Reds.
Baldwin’s solo home run in the fifth inning started the Braves comeback that would eventually be for naught, but he has managed to keep hitting despite falling into a back-up role since Sean Murphy returned from injury. He’s only playing one of every three games – very standard for a back-up catcher – yet has maintained some relevance in two-catcher formats with his .796 OPS on the season and three home runs in his last 15 starts.
Grant Holmes allowed seven hits and four runs with one walk and five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday.
TJ Friedl burned Holmes for a lead-off home run on a hanging curveball and not much came easily after that. Friedl got Holmes for another homer in his next at-bat and in all, he’d given up four runs through the first four innings. He did manage to pitch into the sixth inning though and still forced 12 swings-and-misses, but that curveball command was spotty all game and forced him to lean on his slider a bit more than he would’ve liked. He’s set for a two-start week against the Nationals and then Red Sox in Fenway Park.
Orioles acquired RHP Luis F. Castillo from the Mariners for cash considerations.
Castillo heads to Triple-A Norfolk as quality extra starting pitching depth for the Orioles, who are struggling to find solutions for the back of their rotation which currently features struggling veterans Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson. The 30-year-old righty holds a career 5.06 ERA in five appearances (two starts) in the majors.