Jairo Diaz has two saves in the last week, and if you have never heard of Jairo Diaz before, you aren’t alone. Those are the Rockies’ only saves since Scott Oberg hit the IL, and Colorado is tied with Miami for the fewest saves in the league this season. I don’t see any reason the Rockies would go back to Wade Davis , or give anyone else a shot, so Diaz is as good a pickup as any. He has a 4.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, which is pretty good considering his home ballpark. He’s been great over the last 30 days, with a 0.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 13 strikeouts in 11.2 innings. Diaz did go 2.0 innings to get the save Tuesday, and if that continues, he could be available on some of those rare occasions the Rockies have a lead late in the game.
I never thought there would come the day I would rather own Jairo Diaz than Edwin Díaz , but here we are. Edwin Díaz blew two more saves this week, giving him seven on the season. Surprisingly enough, that’s not even the most in the big leagues. Junior Guerra has eight and Craig Stammen leads the way with nine. There isn’t a whole lot to say about Diaz at this point, except that the Mets almost certainly have to relieve him of late-inning duties until they’re eliminated from the playoff race. What I’m really interested in is what we are going to do with Diaz in our relief pitcher rankings next season. Diaz has a 15.45 K/9 this season, which would be a career high, and his 4.55 K/BB is pretty close to his career average of 4.67. He has a 3.32 career ERA, and I might be tempted to predict something like that for him in 2020. The problem, though is the home runs. In any other year, we could chalk up a 2.38 HR/9 and .390 BABIP allowed to bad luck, and some of it probably is, but I don’t feel comfortable predicting he’ll be able to keep the ball in the yard unless MLB makes some changes to the mound or the baseball. Diaz has a career-low 35.6 percent groundball rate this season, which has compounded the problem. Diaz also allows too many walks and too much contact to pitch around the home runs the way Josh Hader has.
I think just about every reliever is risky from year to year, and I think Diaz will be a risk worth taking. He will almost certainly be the Mets’ Opening Day closer, and we know his ceiling is Best Closer in the Fantasy Baseball. How many guys that claim that?
Seth Lugo got a two-inning save on Monday, and Justin Wilson picked up the save on Tuesday. If you’re in a deep league or really desperate for saves, Wilson could get you a couple, since the Mets seem committed to letting Lugo go two innings in most of his appearances. Of course, that could be Edwin Díaz ’s ticket back into the closer conversation, if he can string together two or three good appearances.
Unless you’ve owned Josh Hader this season, you may be surprised to know he has as many blown saves as Edwin Díaz . Of course, Hader has gotten away with the homers for the most part thanks to a .219 BABIP and 92.4 LOB%. Hader has never had a BABIP higher than .233, and while I think he’s probably due for some bad luck, he does seem particularly unlikely to completely implode the way Diaz has. That being said, Hader is only two seasons away from having a 4.15 BB/9 and a 3.66 xFIP, so I don’t think he’s foolproof. Hader’s draft day stock will likely depend on what Milwaukee does in the offseason and on his presumed bullpen role, but I certainly won’t be counting on a repeat of what he’s done the last two seasons.
Will Smith hasn’t pitched since Friday due to a back injury. Since then, Jandel Gustave and Shaun Anderson have gotten saves. The problem with rosters expanding is the Giants won’t put Smith on the IL, so we might not get any sort of clarity on his health until the next time he pitches. If he’s healthy, he’s almost certainly the closer. Gustave blew the save Monday and Anderson got the save on Tuesday, so if I had to guess, Anderson is probably the next Giant to get a save chance not named Will Smith . I think I’d have to be somewhat desperate to add Anderson, but I’m not ready to drop Smith yet.
Over that last seven days, 34 pitchers have recorded at least one save, but none of them have more than two. That could be a small sample fluke, but I suspect it is more indicative of a trend that will continue the last month. If you really need saves, there are plenty of places to look, but if you’ve been counting on one of the stud closers to rack up saves, you might temper your expectations the rest of the way. Perhaps more importantly, if you have a lead in saves, you can possibly drop one or more of your closers with the expectation they may not hurt you too much. Kirby Yates has just one save over the last 10 days, and if he stays at that pace the rest of way, it could be worth it to drop him to try to chase other categories.