Last week when we looked at Ian Kennedy , the Royals had just eight saves for the entire season. Kennedy has three saves in the last week and six in the last 22 days. That pace is bound to slow down, but I think Kennedy is capable of getting 4-5 saves per month. Kennedy has a 7.60 K/BB rate this season, and unless someone trades for him, he’s probably going to keep the closing job all season.
My boy Ken Giles is expected to return from the IL Friday, the first day he is eligible. Giles has a career-high 15.12 K/9 this season, and while his 5.0-percent HR/FB rate is almost certainly unsustainable, his xFIP is just 2.19. The only thing holding Giles back is his team, but he remains one of the best closers in baseball.
A.J. Minter has three holds since he returned from Triple-A, but he also has three walks. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned, but there is a reasonable chance he gets Atlanta’s next save considering Luke Jackson has four blown saves in his last eight chances. Anthony Swarzak also could be involved, and he could actually have a leg up because he throws right-handed. If it was up to me, Jackson would get the next save chance, but nobody from the Braves has asked me yet. Whoever gets the next save chance is not guaranteed to remain the closer for long, and the Braves will almost certainly trade for a closer at some point. You can probably ignore Atlanta’s bullpen in mixed leagues.
Michael Lorenzen has recorded saves in each of the last two games, and he needs to be owned in deeper leagues. The Reds are committed to using Raisel Iglesias in the most important situations, and lately, that has meant the eighth inning. Iglesias still has 13 saves on the season, and he will almost certainly have more saves than Lorenzen the rest of the way. That being said, Lorenzen will probably get a couple of saves per month going forward.
Carlos Martínez picked up a two-inning save Sunday, but Jordan Hicks does not appear to be in any danger of losing the closer job at this time. Hicks has gotten away with a 4.07 BB/9 thanks to a 64.9 percent groundball rate, and while he might be the sixth best reliever in that bullpen, he’s going to need to blow a couple of saves to lost the job after going 14-for-15 on save chances so far this season.
Roenis Elías has two saves in the last week, which coincided with Hunter Strickland suffering a setback in his recovery from a lat strain. Strickland’s MRI came back clean, but he’s probably at least a couple of weeks away from joining the Mariners. Much like Ian Kennedy , Roenis Elías had gone an awfully long time between saves before getting two in a week. Unlike Ian Kennedy , Elias has a 4.50 BB/9. I don’t really want either of these relievers, but if I had to pick one, it’d be Elias. If he picks up a couple more saves before Strickland returns, Elias could remain the closer for a while.
Julio Urías picked up another three-inning save, giving him three on the season. Urias is getting a spot start Thursday, and he is getting just 8.93 K/9 despite being used primarily as a reliever. If you’re desperate for saves in a really deep league, Urias will probably get you one or two a month, but he’s a long way from being the next Josh Hader .
José Alvarado is going to need a rehab stint in Triple-A, Diego Castillo and Emilio Pagán will split saves for another week or two. That being said, they have combined for just two saves total in the last 30 days, so this is a situation to avoid. If anything, Castillo might be more valuable in Saves+Holds leagues once Alvarado returns.
Craig Kimbrel will make his second appearance at Triple-A Friday, and he will probably need at least 2-3 more outings after that before he is ready to return. My guess is in this column next week, we will be discussing how Kimbrel’s return is imminent. I’m not sure he’s a top-10 closer the rest of the way, but he will probably get plenty of opportunities and it’s nearly impossible to picture him losing the job.