Hello, Fantasy Alarm Nation!

My name is Nick Berns and I eat, drink, and sleep baseball. That’s no cliche - that’s the truth. Together with our amazing DFS team here at Fantasy Alarm, I will be producing the MLB Playbook during a good part of the 2017 MLB season and am very much looking forward to providing you with the information that will help you be successful in daily fantasy baseball.

The MLB DFS Playbook is your ultimate guide to developing winning lineups in DFS. It is not a crystal ball or a genie in a lamp. It is a wise, old companion there to provide you with knowledge. Know yourself and how you like to play and then use the Playbook and the globs of information within to advise you to learn, play and win.

Learn. Play. Win. That's our motto here at Fantasy Alarm and there is a reason they are in that order. You don't win without learning and you sure as heck can't win if you don't play, right? So, let's do it the right way and everybody will be happy. The Playbook is essential to the “Learn" aspect and it's my job to make that part easier on you. That said, like most things in life, the more you put into it, the more you can expect to get out of it. So, the point here is that we will put the time and work in to present you with the information and you can put it to work how you choose. The player who reads the Playbook and moves over to the pitching and hitting coach tools and then into the lineup generator will have more success over the long haul than the user who utilizes just one of these elements. Though, even if you just skim the Playbook or go straight to the optimizer, the reason you are here is to get help winning and even doing the minimum gives you an advantage over the casual opponent.

Alright, enough lecturing on what you should do.  Let’s talk about the best way to employ this piece that is delivered each day. It’s going to have a lot of content so be ready get your squarepants on (SpongeBob reference) and soak it all up. I mentioned knowing yourself as a DFS player and what your own tendencies and interests are. That’s important. If you know you are a cash game player aimed at winning 55-60%+ of your entries to slowly build your bankroll, there is a certain way to use the Playbook. Similarly, if you are a tournament player looking to strike it rich with the one big-time payday, there is a way for you as well. If you play both or like to wait to see the slates to decide, well, you can use the Playbook to your advantage.

Proactive.  Whether you play the same way every day or every time you decide to play, knowing yourself as a player is important. I hate to compare playing daily fantasy sports and setting lineups in your underwear to actually playing competitive sports, but I’ll do it anyway. If you are a punch-and-judy hitter with and ISO rating in the negatives, you aren’t going to swing out of your shoes at everything you see. You will work the count and find a way on base, right? Well, as a DFS player if you work to hone your skills as a certain “type” of player, you will learn from your experiences and likely have a better feel for your lineup construction and using the Playbook as your advisor, you will have a better chance to win.

If you resemble the Reds’ speedy leadoff man Billy Hamilton and focus on cash game play, finishing in the top half of the field and collecting your winnings, you can pick your 1-2 higher-priced players and fill in with players who are similarly priced to build a lower-risk type of lineup that plays well in cash games.

If you are more like the A’s Khris Davis and like to go for it all with GPP tournament play, you can pick a couple of more higher priced players and then identify the best values and those expected to be owned by less of your opponents. Projecting the ownership percentages is an inexact science but there is a simple premise you can follow to aid in doing so. It’s a lot about name recognition. A super star and/or a former super star will be owned more than somebody with less popularity in the game today. When building a GPP lineup, you will do yourself a favor by identifying the lesser owned players, thus increasing your chances to gain an advantage over the masses in the contest. Here is an example:

You have read over the Playbook and you have narrowed down your GPP second base candidates to Neil Walker and Devon Travis. You value them equally, they have similar projections for the day and have a comparable salary, so what separates them? Well, Walker is a bigger name, who has been around the league for eight years, has made a name for himself and plays in New York.  Travis is a younger player with just over 600 career at-bats and plays in Canada. Suffice to say, Walker is going to be owned more than Travis. Playing a GPP, you’d be better served to play Travis. The Playbook features options at each position and for all styles of play. Then, it’s up to you to build YOUR lineup for YOUR type of play.

We will go into more detail on lineup construction for both types of lineups in our weekly MLB DFS strategy piece on Thursdays throughout the season, so keep an eye out for those.

Reactive.  We like to think that the Playbook is flexible and can provide information for all types of players. This includes the five-tool Mike Trout’s of the world who play GPP and cash games of all shapes and sizes.  When you are this type of player, you are clearly making an investment and hope to see a return. The smart move is to be more reactive and decide, based on the climate for that day’s slate of games, where you want to place your chips.  Believe it or not, there are days that are more prone to playing cash over GPP and vice-versa. There are quite a few factors that go into determining if there is a better way to play on a given day. There is risk. There is position depth. There is number of games in the slates and there is gut feeling. You see, once you consume the Playbook in its entirety, digest and then “evacuate” your daily lineup(s) - you’ll have a gut feeling on certain players and where you want to place your money for the day.
 
Stacks. We will provide you with some daily “stacking” options if you enjoy playing that way. These can be found in the final section (bottom) of the Playbook.

Weather. We will do our best to play your local meteorologist - okay, bad example - and predict the weather in all cities hosting games outdoors. The LAST thing in the world you can afford is a rainout after lineup lock and you forfeit those points and really any reasonable chance to win. This is one principle that applies mainly to cash games and limiting risk.  Even if there is a threat of rain, it could cause a delay and wreak havoc, mainly for starting pitchers.

Injuries & L/R Splits. I will generally stay away from any player that’s listed as day-to-day. Even if that player ends up in the lineup, they are likely not 100% and one tweak in batting practice or in that first at bat, he’ll be shut down and you’ll lose points. Sure, there will be times that a player who is listed as day-to-day blasts three home runs and I’ll hear it from you, but, I guarantee the former will happen more often than the latter. It’s just not worth the risk  On the other side of the coin, it’s important to utilize the splits against right- and left-handed starters. Part-time players who are in the lineup against and generally mash southpaws will be profiled and recommended. See: Kennys Vargas, Yasmany Tomas, Jordy Mercer.  Same goes for righties - but, then again, if a player is mashing right-handed pitching, he isn’t sneaking up on many.

Leading Indicators.  You will quickly notice that my general strategy regarding hitters is volume. I advise loading up on hitters 1-3 in the order. It’s amazing how getting 4-5 extra at-bats during the slate will benefit you.  Putting the ball in play is another fetish (bad word choice?) of mine. This increases the chance for points via runs scored, stolen bases, even if they reach via something other than a hit. Then, putting the ball in play with some authority - hard contact rate - is another leading indicator for me. On the pitching side of things, I will lean towards strikeout-rates, both the pitcher himself and the opponent. . As we know, racking up the whiffs is a key to winning. I’ll edge a pitcher that keeps the ball on the ground more often over one that lives a bit more dangerously. Knowing the chances of the starting pitcher getting a “win” is a bonus and can be achieved without paying dearly for it - this is where Vegas comes in.

The research doesn’t stop there. We will make reference to all kinds of factors that play in on a daily basis. We mentioned weather, but we’ll talk about recent performance, umpire effects, catchers and how they affect a starting pitcher or opposing baserunners - you name it, we’ll have a eye on it.

Finally, stick with the Playbook and the tools around here designed to help you win. Ask questions. We are here to help and while we can not see the future, we will give you the necessary backup to build a lineup(s) that you can feel confident with each day.  Learn (here). Play (where you’d like) and Win. Let’s have a great 2017 season!

Should you ever want to reach out to me, by the way, you can catch me on Twitter -- @NickBernsFA