Hot starters entering September and keeper league gems from Schultz highlight this week’s Week That Was.
Mike Clevinger: Mike Clevinger pitched a gem Friday leading Schultz’s Indians to a shutout win. Clevinger tossed six innings of no run, three hit ball on the way to the win. Over his last 12 games, he has a 3.24 ERA and 68 strikeouts in just over 58 innings. We will all take that all day right? Can this continue through September? I say yes. Clevinger has a solid 12.5+% swinging strike rate, a first pitch strike rate of close to 62% and is pitching on a good team that scores runs enabling him to grab those roto-valuable wins. I am in.
Jimmy Nelson: I know I have waffled on Jimmy Nelson this year after years of hope and disappointment. However, Nelson continues to show that the past faith was warranted and the recent doubt not. Friday, Nellie tossed seven shutout innings, giving up just 6 baserunners and mowing down 11. On the year, Nelson has a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Digging deeper, the numbers look even better; increased fastball velocity, 50% groundball rate (especially helpful in Milwaukee), and a swinging strike rate over 11%. I am in and should never have doubted.
Andrew Cashner: Don’t look now, but Andrew Cashner has pitched pretty well of late. Wednesday, Cash tossed eight innings of one run ball striking out 6 and walking none. Over his last 10 games, Cash has a pretty 3.08 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. That said, there are reasons for worry. The .267 BABIP shows that there has been some very good luck. Also, the swinging strike rate under 6% says that big innings are on the horizon. Oh, and given that his xFIP is almost two full runs higher than his ERA, the reasons for worry are strong. I am selling high if I can. You should too.
Rafael Montero: Rafael Montero was money on Wednesday tossing eight strong innings of shutout ball while striking out 8. Well, I am not sure what to make of this. The stuff is certainly there. Watch him pitch in person and you will see the good (highlighted by the 94 mph average fastball) and the bad (loss of concentration and odd pitch selection). In the end, I think Montero makes a good pickup for teams needing to make up ground. He gets swings and misses (swinging strike rate over 10%) and his year-long FIP is almost a full run below his ERA. Risk it if you are behind but in the hunt.
R.A. Dickey: Credit where credit is due, Dickey was strong Wednesday going eight innings while giving up one run and striking out nine. Indeed, he has been solid over the last 12 starts with an ERA under 3 and almost a K per inning. That said, my gut tells me this is a pitcher that could easily implode in September and take your roto team with him. Indeed, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all say the ERA is going up. Caution is the word of the day here.
And now, the moment you likely have not been waiting for -- Schultz says: “With the rosters expanding this weekend, there are a smattering of interesting options for keeper league roto-owners that like to speculate on prospects. The Dodgers have brought up Alex Verdugo, the Indians have brought up catching phenom Francisco Mejia, Franklin Barreto has returned to the A’s and Jack Flaherty and Brandon Woodruff have been promoted to the NL Central rotations of the Cardinals and Brewers. The waiver wire may have become surfeit with talent but there may not be much of a benefit to those roto-owners looking for one last surge towards a 2017 title. The Dodgers and Indians are preparing for the post-season, which takes precedence over developing youngsters on the September roster and Flaherty and Woodruff's value is directly dependent on their potential contribution towards catching the Rockies and D'Backs in the NL Wild Card race. If the A’s decide to keep Barreto on the bench, that's just poor strategic planning.
One future stud-in-waiting may no longer be in-waiting. It's easy to forget that Byron Buxton is only 23-years-old as he's been disappointing roto-owners that can't benefit from mindbogglingly ridiculous centerfield glovework since 2015. One of the most heralded prospects in baseball - as well as a Schultz Says favorite - Buxton has occasionally tantalized but rarely delivered in anything resembling a satisfying manner. After finishing 2016 with a .287, 9 HR 22 RBI September, Buxton seemed poised to breakout in 2017, only to, once again disappoint -- until now. In the last month, B-Bux has hit .387 with 8 HR, 23 RBIs, scored 24 runs and stolen 6 bases and has helped keep the Twins locked in as the second team in the AL Wild Card race. Even after suffering a scare with a potentially damaged hamate bone, Buxton returned to the Twins lineup on Saturday to go 3 for 5 with a triple and 2 RBIs. Oh yes, he also scored 3 runs.
This is the once and future prospect everyone's been waiting for. If your league was shortsighted enough to let him sit on the waiver wire, pounce, hold tight and don't let him go until you absolutely, positively have to.”
Response: “Surfeit”. Nice SAT word. As to baseball, I have to say Schultz says a lot of valuable keeper nuggets this week. Nice!