Some big game pitching performances highlight this week’s Week That Was.
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Masahiro Tanaka: Tanaka was great Friday night pitching 8 innings of 1 run ball while giving up just 2 hits, no walks and striking out 14. On the year, Tanaka still has an unsightly 5.09 ERA. However, so many of the other metrics says he has been far better than that. His WHIP is a respectable 1.27, he has struck out more than a batter per inning, and has a K/BB ratio of almost 5:1. The advanced metrics are similarly very positive: 15% swinging strike rate; 63% first pitch strike percentage and a 50% ground ball rate. So, what gives? Tanaka has been unlucky. His HR/FB rate is an inflated 23% -- almost double of what is was last year, his strand rate is below 67% and his BABIP 30 points above his career average. With all of those indicators of bad luck, it is not surprising that Tanaka’s SIERA and xFIP are over 1.5 runs below his ERA. Bottom line – go get Tanaka while his owner in your league may still be thinking the 14K night was a one off. It wasn’t. Buy!
Parker Bridwell: Parker Bridwell was strong again Friday going 7 innings of 1 run ball, giving up just 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4. In his last 7 starts, Bridwell has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 6 of those. There are a lot of indicators that say Bridwell is for real. He has added 1 mph to his fastball, has a solid 10% swinging strike rate and has an equally solid 63% first pitch strike rate. Given that he is hot, has solid advanced metrics and pitches in a good pitchers’ park, I am buying. You should too.
Brent Suter: Brent Suter threw 7 innings of scoreless ball against the world champion Cubs Friday, striking out 5. That outing marked his 5th straight start in which he allowed 2 runs or fewer. On the year, Suter has a very strong 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. As good as he has been, there are concerning signs. First, his average fastball velocity is just 86 MPH. Thus, he needs to be perfect with his location in order to succeed. Second, the 80% strand rate says he has been a bit lucky. Third, his xFIP and SIERA sit around 4.00 – much higher than the 2.40 ERA he sports. Finally, he has never put up an ERA/WHIP combo as good as his 2017 major league season in any minor league stop. Enjoy the success but be wary and ready to cut bait!
Travis Wood: Travis Wood looked good in his San Diego debut tossing 6 innings of two run ball while striking out 7. Look, I am not going to tell you Travis Wood will remind you of Kerry Wood but lefty pitchers going from AL to NL tend to succeed (at least initially) and T.Wood has the advantage of pitching his home games at Petco. That is always a plus. Do not get too excited but go ahead and roll the dice in the start against Pittsburgh and take it from there. Of course, if you need to make up a lot of ground, you need to take greater risks.
Chris O’Grady: Chris O’Grady tossed 7 innings of shutout ball Thursday in the Marlins win over the Reds. The good news is that O’Grady has a solid 3.68 ERA and is striking out almost a batter per inning. The bad news is that his WHIP is a bloated 1.40, he throws only 87mph, his groundball rate is under 30% and O’Grady boasts a swinging strike rate of just 6% (which makes one question if the K rate could possibly hold). Oh, and his xFIP is 5.29 despite the 3.68 ERA. Sell high while you can.
And now, the moment you likely have not been waiting for -- Schultz says: “Much like its fantasy counterpoint, Major League Baseball titles can be won at the trading deadline. Not just for the present year but for the future. Longtime fans of the game will remember the summer deals where the Indians traded CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook and Casey Blake to contenders. Smart roto-heads will remember that the unheralded return for those players included Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and Carlos Santana. (Shrewd followers will also remember that Matt LaPorta and Jason Knapp were supposed to be the names mentioned above). Just last year, the Andrew Miller deal netted the Yankees Clint Frazier and that's paying immediate dividends for the Bombers.
Schultz's point here is that it behooves roto-fanatics to have long memories. Save for the Mets, general managers know what they are doing. Jose Quintana may help the Cubs and your roto-team vie for a title. Don't forget the names Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease as they may do the same for you and the ChiSox a couple years down the road. As Schultz Says this, Sonny Gray is going to be traded somewhere, pay close attention to the players going to Oakland, write them down somewhere, it will benefit you in years to come.
Winning roto-leagues isn't always about knowing the week that was, it's also about knowing the weeks that will come to be.”
Response: I still get a kick out of Schultz talking about himself in the third person. Oh, and he makes some good points about key names to know for your keeper leagues.
Player News
Rangers signed RHP Cory Abbott to a minor league contract.
Abbott had a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings for los Tecos de los Dos Laredos in the Mexican Independent League, striking out 15 batters and walking eight in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. He’s the third player signed out of the Mexican Independent League this week, with the Rangers also signing Robert Dugger and the Dodgers signing Nick Senzel. Abbott figures to join the starting rotation for Triple-A Round Rock.
Yordan Alvarez (hand) was diagnosed with a muscle strain on the top of his right hand.
The injury was previously reported as “inflammation,” but now we know that the inflammation is the result of a strain. Astros manager Joe Espada said the diagnosis was “good news,” and the team still hopes Alvarez will have a minimum stint on the IL, but he’ll obviously need to wait for the strained muscle or tendon to heal, which might take more than a week depending on the severity of the strain.
Royals signed RHP Stephen Nogosek to a minor league contract.
The 30-year-old last appeared in an MLB game for the Mets back in 2023. He was in the Nationals organization last season, but was released in May after posting a 9.77 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. He has a 5.02 career ERA in 57 1/3 MLB innings and figures to serve as organizational depth for the Royals’ bullpen.
Nick Senzel is playing third base and batting fifth for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
The 29-year-old was signed out of the Mexican Independent League after hitting .591/.654/1.136 in 26 plate appearances with three home runs and 10 RBI. He’ll likely serve as a utility player in Triple-A and be a fallback option for the Dodgers at multiple spots in the field.
Christian Koss is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Giants on Wednesday against the Cubs.
After Koss was on the bench on Tuesday, he’ll be right back in the lineup on Wednesday. The 27-year-old has gone 7-for-37 so far this season with 11 strikeouts and is not an option in fantasy leagues.
Brice Turang is not in the starting lineup for the Brewers on Wednesday against the Astros.
The Brewers are facing left-hander Framber Valdez, so they are opting to go with a more right-handed-heavy lineup with Vinny Capra at third base and Caleb Durbin shifting to second base. However, Turang had started against a left-hander on Sunday, and the Brewers had Turang on the bench on Monday, so he has now sat out two of the last three games. It’s likely nothing to worry about, but is just interesting to note.