Pitchers and catchers have not yet reported but the hot stove is burning, fantasy drafts have begun and some interesting players are about to see their ADP rise or fall:

Victor Martinez:  Victor Martinez suffered a torn meniscus in his knee and will go under the knife.  At this point, VMart will miss all of spring training and quite possibly some of the 2015.  Yes, he was great last year hitting .335 with 32 homeruns, 103 RBI and 87 runs.  However, he is 36 and will not be able to prepare for the season properly.  The current NFBC ADP of 37 is sure to change.  There is no way that I would take VMart in the top 100 and many will agree so look for that ADP to reach triple digits once enough drafts are in the books that reflect his injury.  Remember, the Rules of Engagement say to avoid paying full price for injured players.  In a 15 team draft, that means you should not even be thinking about VMart until at least round 7 and I would wait even longer.

C.J. Cron:  In news that should surprise absolutely no one, Josh Hamilton is injured and will likely miss the start of the year after shoulder surgery.  Before the Hamilton injury, Cron had an NFBC ADP of 354.  Why so low?  The answer is that he was scheduled to be on the short side of the platoon with Matt Joyce.  However, Cron’s ADP will rise and rise substantially.  The 25 year old hit a respectable .256 with 11 HR and 37 RBI in just 242 AB in Anaheim last season.  Given that his batting average was pretty much the same against lefties and righties and that he hit for more power against righties, we expect Cron to do just fine playing pretty much every day in Hamilton’s spot while Colin Cowgill slides into the short side of the outfield platoon.  Do not be surprised to see Cron’s ADP rise 50+ spots in the next couple of weeks. 

Jordy Mercer: Currently, Jordy Mercer has an ADP of 320 while Jung-Ho Kang is at 307.  As more and more people realize that Mercer is going to start and Kang fill a utility role, Kang’s ADP will drop and Mercer’s will rise.  Mercer has approximately 900 AB in the majors.  Last year, he hit a respectable (for a SS) .255 with 12 HR, 55 RBI and 4 SB in around 500 AB.  Just by experience, Mercer is likely to take the next step as he approaches quad digits in AB.  Add in the fact that he reduced his K and increased his BB and contact rate each year in the majors and was a little unlucky in BABIP last year (appr 20 points below his career numbers), you will see what the Bucs see and see why they will play him. When fantasy owners realize that as well, they will begin drafting him ahead of Kang.

Tyler Clippard:  Sean Dolittle is on the shelf and could miss the start of the regular season.  Tyler Clippard, who was not even Dolittle’s teammate when many of the drafts comprising the ADP were held, has a depressed ADP number of 358.  That number will go up and go up a lot as the presumptive Oakland closer attracts attention in drafts this month.   

?Jimmy Nelson:   Yovanni Gallardo is now in Texas and Jimmy Nelson is firmly entrenched in the starting rotation in Milwaukee.  Nelson’s ADP of 420 (28th round in a 15 team league) is absurdly low and will correct now that Gallardo is gone.  As I wrote last week:  “Nelson is another of those high ceiling, low price flamethrowers.  Many will be scared off by his 4.93 ERA and 1.46 WHIP of a year ago.  Look deeper.  Nelson’s fastball averaged 93.6 MPH and he was very unlucky.  When his .354 BABIP and 66% strand rate normalize, his ERA should equal or be lower than his 2014 FIP of 3.85 and the K’s should rise (he averaged more than a K per inning in the minors in 2013 and 2014).”

Brett Cecil:  According to news reports, the scuttlebutt at Blue Jays fanfest was that Aaron Sanchez will start and Brett Cecil will close.  This alone should push Cecil’s ADP far higher than the current 383.  When folks take this news and do their homework, they will see that Cecil struck out 76 in 53.3 innings (over 12.8 per 9), that his 1.37 WHIP was the result of an absurdly unlucky .372 BABIP (up 88 points from 2013) and that his FIP says his ERA of 2.70 should have been even lower.  Once they see all those positive signs, Cecil’s ADP will skyrocket.  Watch. 

B.J. Upton:   The former fantasy darling’s ADP currently sits at 357 (24th round of a 15 team league).  There is no way a guy who can steal bases and is young enough to recapture some past glory should be going in what is really the reserve round.  That said, what is likely to drive his ADP higher is the love he is getting from folks like the Wolfman, Ron Shandler and me.  None of us has said that Upton will be anything like his brother but we have pointed out the potential and the fact that with the Braves slated to be well, not so good, B.J. should get the green light to run early and often – music to the ears of fantasy owners who are listening.

Final Thought 1:  The Draft Guide is here!  Want to know how to get your copy?  Click on this link: http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/flowers/19861/the-2015-fantasy-alarm-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/.   If you want a real shot at winning your league, DO IT NOW!

Final Thought 2:  The next true test of player value comes Tuesday night at 9pm ET as the LABR Mixed League draft kicks off.  Of course, you can hear all the action and commentary live on Colton and the Wolfman with Fantasy Alarm’s own Rick Wolf, the First Lady of Fantasy Stacie Stern and me from 9pm-midnite ET on SiriusXMFantasy Sports Radio, Sirius 210/XM 87.