The Week That Was:  A Critical Look at the 2015 FSTA Expert Draft (Part III)

On January 15, a veritable who’s who of the fantasy baseball world gathered in Las Vegas for the official start of the fantasy baseball season -- the FSTA expert draft.  The Colton and the Wolfman team (Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern and me) drew pick 2 for our attempt to defend our FSTA crown.  This is the third in a three part series examining how we did.  The first two can be found here:  http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/colton/19835/the-week-that-was-a-critical-look-at-the-2015-fsta-expert-draft-part-i/ and http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/colton/19851/the-week-that-was-a-critical-look-at-the-2015-fsta-expert-league-draft-part-ii/

Dexter Fowler:  For round 21, we liked Fowler as an OF who has some power and speed and has a much higher ceiling than the level at which he has performed and at 28, time to reach that ceiling.  Even if he does not get any better, we have a player with a 3 year average of hitting .279 with 11 HR and 14 SB – solid production for the 262nd player off the board.  Of course, his prospects for having his best year got better after the FSTA draft when he was dealt to the Cubbies to become the leadoff man hitting in front of Rizzo, Soler and company.  The Rules of Engagement say draft upside late and we did that with Fowler. 

Michael Taylor:  We might have jumped a couple of rounds early here to land the Nationals outfielder but again, the key is to get upside late.  With Jayson Werth having injury and legal problems, Bryce Harper having never played a full season avoiding injuries and Ryan Zimmerman trying to overcome injuries and learn 1B, there should be plenty of opportunities for this toolsy outfielder to get playing time.  Yes, his high K rates in the minors worry us.  However, how many players post 20+ HR and 35+ SB while showing the advanced patience of a double digit walk rate?  Not many.  This is another shot at upside late which could pay a huge profit.  The outfielders who went after Taylor – Pearce, Hunter, Granderson , etc. -- are just not exciting in the shallow mixed league format.

Wily Peralta: As we have continued to preach, the Rules of Engagement say to invest in hard throwing youngsters with upward mobility.  Peralta fits the bill perfectly.  Even if he takes no step forward, we have a pitcher in round 23 who posted a 3.53 ERA and won 17 games a year ago.  When you consider that Wily had an average fastball velocity close to 96 MPH and kept the ball on the ground as well (2.25 GB/FB rate), it is clear why we see upside.  At only 25, there is a lot more growth possible.

Jesse Hahn:   Hahn took the NL by storm after being called up last summer in San Diego.  In 73 innings, Hahn blew down 70 while posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  When you add in the fact that Hahn kept the ball on the ground and had his overall numbers depressed by the odd shuffling between the majors and minors late in the season, you can see why we think the upside is substantial.  Oh, and if anyone thinks it PETCO was the reason for his success, think again.  His numbers varied very little when he left the caverns in San Diego.  The only risk with Hahn is that he has not had thrown anywhere close to 200 inning seasons in a season.  The risk that poses in fantasy is far lower in a shallow league where we will likely have 9-10 live starting pitcher arms on the roster at any one time.

Jimmy Nelson:   Yes, we did live by the Rules of Engagement -- big time.  Nelson is another of those high ceiling, low price flamethrowers.  Many will be scared off by his 4.93 ERA and 1.46 WHIP of a year ago.  Look deeper.  Nelson’s fastball averaged 93.6 MPH and he was very unlucky.  When his .354 BABIP and 66% strand rate normalize, his ERA should equal or be lower than his 2014 FIP of 3.85 and the K’s should rise (he averaged more than a K per inning in the minors in 2013 and 2014).

Bobby Parnell:  Mets manager Terry Collins is on record saying Bobby Parnell will close once he is ready to roll in 2015.  At pick 337, I am more than happy to roster a guy who could save 25+ games.  Can anyone argue with that?

B.J. Upton:   Yeah, yeah, I know.  Upton has been horrific, atrocious, and just plain awful the last two years.  Indeed, many would say I am being kind.  However, in round 27, why not take a shot on the upside of a guy who is only 30, once stole 30+ bases for five straight years (2008-12), who has produced double digit HR and SB for all but two of the last eight years (and in the other two, he hit 9 HR), and whose contact rate improved while his walk rate remained solid?  Will he be the superstar many predicted?  Probably not.  Can he be a very valuable player if that contact rate improves a bit more and he runs more on a team that will struggle to score without the recently departed Justin Upton and Evan Gattis?  Why not?    

Chase Anderson:   On first glance, a pitcher who posted a 4.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 2014 and who will toil for a bad team in a bandbox of a park does not excite anyone.  Again, the key late in drafts is upside.  On closer examination, there is a lot to like about Chase.  He struck out more than 8 per 9 in bigs in 2014 and has done that consistently throughout the minors as well.  These K numbers are supported by a swinging strike rate over 10% and a first pitch strike rate of 63% (66 in second half).  I doubt he will be a star but he could be a very valuable NL-only starter and a very valuable streaming option for mixed leaguers especially during his visits to SF and SD. 

Yonder Alonso:  Upside late right?  Then why take Alonso?  Hasn’t he been around forever?  Well, it certainly seems that way but he is only 27 years old despite having already logged 1200+ major league at bats.   The bad news is that he has never hit double digit dingers in the show and is coming off injury.  However, the Padres commitment to starting Yonder at 1B in a year where they are clearly going for it with the acquisition of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and more says a lot.  At 27, if he is healthy and continues to improve his contact rate (as he has done every year in the majors) and gets less unlucky (BABIP was 54 points below career average last year), Alonso could be very productive.  In round 29, this is a good upside shot.

Ok, the FSTA draft review is done.  Now on to preparing for LABR, Tout Wars and that little football game in Glendale today! 

Final Thoughts:  The Draft Guide is here!  Want to know how to get your copy?  Click on this link: http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/flowers/19861/the-2015-fantasy-alarm-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/.   If you want a real shot at winning your league, DO IT NOW!