The Week That Was: 2017 In Review

Lessons to remember for 2018 and the All-Schultz awards highlight the final fantasy baseball Week That Was for 2017

Lesson – Pay Attention to “Soft” Information:   We have all become accustomed to the advanced metrics – BABIP, swinging strike percentage, HR/FB, etc.  I believe in the advanced metrics as an important tool.  However, if 2017 taught us anything it is that soft information is critical too.  For example, in the spring there was a lot of talk about how Aaron Judge carried himself like Derek Jeter and how he never got too high or too low.  That piece of information, if credited, would have helped me put Judge on my radar screen despite the almost 50% K rate from the month of action in 2016 (and no, I would not have predicted 52 dingers no matter what but I would have bid on his ability to stay in the lineup and produce more than his paltry 2017 March cost).  Yonder Alonso provides another example.  In the spring there was a lot of talk about how he changed his approach, had a much better launch angle, etc.  Had I paid attention to that, I would not have so easily discounted the not uncommon cactus league dinger count.  I think you get the point.  In the winter of 2018, use both soft and metric-based information.

Lesson – Avoid Mets Starting Pitchers Until Further Notice:   When four out of five of your starting pitchers have serious health issues during the year, there is a problem.  When you fail to properly care for your ace righthander and let him (yes, you Thor) refuse an MRI, you are just negligent with your staff.  When Mets pitching comes up for bid next March, I am stopping at 50% of what I would otherwise bid if they were not Mets.  Let someone else pay for DL-destined arms. 

Lesson – Stanton’s Huge Year Doesn’t Mean Pay for Injury Prone Players:   Before 2017, Giancarlo Stanton played in 125 games or more just twice in his seven big league seasons.  Yet year after year, fantasy owners bid as if he would play 160 in the upcoming year.  Yes, Stanton basically did play 160 (159 if you want to be precise) but that does not make counting on the injury prone slugger to avoid injury smart budgeting.  Stay true to Rules of Engagement (i.e., injury prone players get injured) and you will avoid fantasy heartache in 2018.

Lesson – Patience is a Virtue:  Jorge Polanco provides a great example.   First half: under .230 with just 3 dingers.  Second half: over .290 with ten dingers.  If you like the young Polanco in March and you knew there could be growing pains, why cut bait?  Trust your judgment and your homework, especially with those whose breakouts you predict.

Lesson – Do Not Overreact:  Manny Machado is the poster child for this lesson.    His .290 with power in the second half is exactly what anyone who watches this superstar play should have suspected.  If you sold low, well, shame on you.  Do not do that in 2018.

And now, the moment you likely have not been waiting for -- Schultz says: “After a full season of documenting the weeks that were and trying to prognosticate upon the weeks that would come to be, the 2017 baseball season has finally run its course. Some of you may be crowing about the roto-glory achieved over the past 26 weeks while many more of you are likely fine tuning your excuses for why the season went south. Here at The Week That Was, Schultz traditionally celebrates the end of the baseball season by announcing the venerable All-Schultz Teams because it’s a tried-and-true journalistic axiom – people love lists.

THE 2017 WILLIAM GOLDMAN ALL-SCHULTZ TEAM: William Goldman once described the movie business as “nobody knows anything.” Notwithstanding the outstanding pedigrees possessed by the multitude of fantasy baseball pundits, they collectively whiff on an astounding number of players proving that no one really knows anything. This team is comprised of those that prove that roto-pundits like movie studio executives know nothing.

C:   Mike Zunino (SEA): The days when roto-owners considered Zunino a viable roto-asset had long passed before the start of the ‘17 campaign as diminishing power poorly complements a career sub-Mendoza batting average. His 25 home runs, 64 RBIs and .251 average nearly doubled his output from the last two years and provided unexpected returns to those who took the flyer.

1B: Justin Smoak (TOR): Perhaps there should be a reflexive draft strategy that calls for the acquisition of whomever the Jays have dug up to play first base. Initially thought to be part of a platoon with Steve Pearce, the Smoke Monster exploded for 38 HRs, 90 RBIs while hitting .270, all career milestones by an extraordinary margin.

2B: Jonathan Schoop (BAL): Quick – name anyone that played in the World Baseball Classic for The Netherlands. The fact that you might have answered Jonathan Schoop simply because you recall hearing he’s from Curacao (or that Schultz asks this question in this specific spot) is due to his breakout season, His .294, 32 HR 105 RBI wasn’t entirely unforeseeable but not too many saw this coming.

SS: Paul DeJong (STL): The Cardinals entire season seemed full of All-Star production from players that started their season in the minors. Taking advantage of the opening presented by the injuries/ineffectiveness of Aledmys Diaz, Jedd Gyorko and Kolten Wong, the less-than-unheralded infielder racked up 25 HRs while hitting .286, making himself a prime target to be overvalued in 2018.

3B: Joey Gallo (TEX): Always blessed with prodigious power, the Rangers slugger could never make an impact in his brief major league stints, striking out 11 times for every homer. Gallo flirted with the Mendoza line and struck out nearly 200 times. However, his 40+ home runs were a roto-game changing bonus for those who plucked him off the waiver wire.

MI: Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): With an infield of Gurriel/Altuve/Correa and Bregman, Gonzalez projected, at best, to be a marginally productive utility infielder. With everyone in Houston but Brian McCann hitting the bejeezus out of the ball, MarGo posted a phenomenal .303 with 23 HRs, 90 RBIs and 8 steals.

CI: Logan Morrison (TB): Undrafted due to people getting tired of giving up on him, Morrison uncorked a startling 38 homers, resuscitating his career across the coast from where it started. When people look back at 2017, Morrison’s power outburst will be included as one of its most surprising curios.

OF: Cody Bellinger (LA): The presumptive NL Rookie of the Year, Bellinger was only supposed to be visiting the big leagues for a weekend jaunt to fill in for an injured Joc Pederson. Wally Pipping Pederson (and possibly Adrian Gonzalez), Bellinger proved to be waiver-wire gold, slugging 39 HRs, driving in 96, stealing 10 while hitting a modest .266. He will definitely not be overlooked in 2018.

OF: Aaron Judge (NYY): A remarkable September helped erase all memories of the Baby Bomber’s post-Home Run Derby swoon. Projected to be the 4^th member of the Yankees outfield, Judge delivered an historic 52 HRs – eclipsing the Mark McGwire rookie record – while also racking up 114 RBIs and 128 runs scored. His .284 average and 9 steals were just icing on what might be a perennial Triple Crown cake.

OF: Tommy Pham (STL): An afterthought in the Cardinals’ stocked minor-league system, Pham came out of nowhere to hit. 306, slug 23 home runs, steal 25 bases and score 95 runs. Off the roto-radar at the start of the season, he will likely play an integral role in some roto-franchise’s championship run

SP: Ervin Santana (MIN): If there was a Bartolo Colon award for the veteran pitcher that improbably regained roto-relevance, Schultz would present it to Ervin Santana. Rightfully overlooked due to his pedestrian and injury-plagued past, Santana pitched the Twins and some roto-franchises into the post-season with a remarkable 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, even more astounding given this year’s offensive explosion. His 167 Ks were simply a reminder that he can still pitch at this level.

RP: Corey Knebel (MIL): Greg Holland’s NL-leading 41 saves was more unforeseeable but at least the Rockies had named him closer on opening day. Stepping in for the horrendous Neftali Feliz, Knebel was a revelation. Saving 39 games with a 1.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP would be impressive enough, his 126 strikeouts in 76 innings has him bordering on elite.

THE 2017 DR. MANETTE/CHARLES DARNAY ALL-SCHULTZ TEAM: It can be the best of halves and the worst of halves. After the first half, there were no great expectations for the players on this team. In a twist, hard times were avoided as this team was the absolute Dickens.

C: Gary Sanchez (NYY): Christian Vazquez’ .316 second half was a statistical anomaly as was Wellington Castillo’s .313 with 12 HRs. For the second straight season, Sanchez was the most dominant backstop in the second half – his 20 HRs, 50 RBIs placing him a significant standard deviation above his catching brethren. Remember this should he get off to a slow start in 2018.

1B: Matt Olson (OAK): While the baseball world gawked and gaped at the power outburst going on in Miami, an unknown slugger in Oakland put up a remarkable 20 home runs in only 43 second half games while hitting a modestly impressive .286 since the break. His .184, 4 HR first half failed to foreshadow his second half eruption.

2B: Whit Merrifield (KC): While Dee Gordon lit up the base paths in both halves of the season, the unsung Royals’ upstart not only stole 20 second-half bases but slugged 12 homers while hitting .295, nearly doubling his output from the first half of the season.

SS: Francisco Lindor (CLE): Off to a somewhat pedestrian first half, Lindor paced the Indians 22 game winning streak and ridonkulous 33-4 run to close out the season with a .307 batting average, 19 HR, 46 RBI, and 11 steals. That the MVP talk in Cleveland centers on Jose Ramirez gives you an idea as to how solid the Tribe’s middle infield has become.

3B: Josh Donaldson (TOR): After missing much of the first half due to injury, the former MVP unleased a thunderous .276, 24 HR 53 RBI second-half that equaled 37 Jose Bautistas.

MI: Tim Beckham (BAL): Whenever someone bloviates that all a player needs is a change of scenery, Tim Beckham’s Baltimore debut will serve as their exhibit “A”. The former number 1 pick of the 2008 draft hit .259 with 12 home runs in 87 games with the Rays before turning his season around with a .306 10 HR, 26 RBI in just 50 games with the O’s.

CI: Rhys Hoskins (PHI): Little positional chicanery to properly acknowledge the debutante showing from the Phillies future superstud. Making Tommy Joseph obsolete before he could even establish himself, Hoskins unloaded 18 second half HRs and drove in 48 while inserting himself into the Philadelphia lineup for years to come.

OF: Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): Everyone always wondered what Stanton could accomplish if he could stay healthy for an entire season. His monstrous second half run included 33 HR, 73 RBI, and 63 runs scored while hitting an impressive .285 and catapulted him into the MVP discussion despite the fact that he failed to factor into any post-season race.

OF: J.D. Martinez (ARZ): With all the focus on Stanton, Martinez’ 31 HR, 72 RBI and .309 average helped cement the Diamondback’s Wild Card berth may have been the more significant achievement in the second half. Along with Justin Upton and Justin Verlander, Martinez escaped the black hole that has become the Tigers to thrive elsewhere.

OF: Byron Buxton (MIN): A perennial Schultz favorite, Buxton shook off a first half that added to his list of roto-disappointments by finally becoming BYRON BUXTON. His .299 batting average, 11 HR, 35 RBI, and 13 steals made up the best half-season of the 23-year-old’s burgeoning career. This is a sign of things to come so be forewarned in 2018.

SP: Justin Verlander (DET/HOU): Corey Kluber may have been the most dominant pitcher in the second half but no one in baseball had the turnaround of Verlander. After putting up a woeful 4.73 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in the first half, the once and possibly future post-season hero racked up a 1.95 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 121 Ks after the All-Star break.

RP: Sean Doolittle (OAK/WSH): A tale of two seasons. In the first half of the season, Doolittle was lost in the miasmic pit of the Oakland bullpen only to be raised into roto-relevance by being shipped to the closer-deficient Nationals. His 21-3 save differential between the two halves of the season was by far the most significant of all relievers.

THE 2017 LARRY DAVID ALL-SCHULTZ TEAM: This team unquestionably curbed all enthusiasm.

C:  Evan Gattis (HOU): With catcher eligibility back on the table, expectations were high that Gattis would put up power numbers dominant enough to make up for the concomitant lack of contact. With his .263 far exceeding his career average, his 12 HR, 55 RBIs were sufficiently pedestrian that he wasn’t worth the premium that was surely paid.

1B: Miguel Cabrera (DET): All good things must come to an end, including the careers of roto-studs. With herniated discs ending Cabrera’s season early, his .249, 16 HR, and 60 RBI may be indicative of what’s to come in the future. The end came too quickly for his 2017 roto-owners.

2B: Ben Zobrist (CHC): Along with the Home Run Derby curse, proving the existence of the Post-Season Hero curse remains elusive. Nonetheless, despite a wealth of position eligibility, the 2016 World Series MVP disappointed at all of them. In the midst of the potent Cubs lineup, Zobrist hit a paltry .232 with 12 HR and 50 RBIs. When the rest of the Cubs woke up after the break, Zobrist stayed dormant.

SS: Aledmys Diaz (STL): In the wake of a Jhonny Peralta injury, Diaz unexpectedly emerged as the Cardinals shortstop of the future. The sexy pick of supposedly knowledgeable roto-geeks, Diaz demonstrated why his 2016 was unforeseen – it was a fluke. His .259, 7 HR, 20 RBI season frustrated all who mistook Diaz as one of the crop of new super-shortstops.

3B: Pablo Sandoval (BOS/SF): The Panda’s 2017 campaign will likely be remembered for being the obstacle preventing Rafael Devers from contending for the AL Rookie of the Year. Although the writing was on the wall that Sandoval’s time had passed, his .220, 9 HR, 32 RBI’s hurt even those who took a cheap flyer, figuring the Sox’ rising tide would life all boats.

OF: Ian Desmond (COL): After reinvigorating his career in Texas, a switch to the Mile High City seemed to be a boon for the perennial 20/20 candidate. Even with the Rockies revitalization, Desmond never took off, floundering to a .274, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 15 steal season.

OF: Jackie Bradley Jr. (BOS): Due to occasional bursts of brilliance, there’s a collective misimpression that JBJ is a useful roto-asset. In his age-27 year, with about 1,250 at-bats to his credit, once again, everyone jumped on the Bradley train only to receive a .245, 17 HR, 63 RBI stat line. Devers and Andrew Benintendi have leapfrogged Bradley as the up-and-coming Sox sluggers.

OF: Mark Trumbo (BAL): The 2016 MLB home run leader didn’t come close to a repeat, falling one short of Tim Beckham. With the Orioles clubbing home runs by the bucketload, Trumbo could only manage 23 and his 65 RBIs and .234 average weren’t disguising the disappointment.

SP: Matt Harvey (NYM): The poster boy for why a team should never crowd source their bullpen decisions, Harvey has never recovered from CitiField’s demand that he pitch the 9^th inning of Game 5 of the 2015 World Series. Everyone who wagered on a strong contract year from the Mets hurler had to be horrified by Harvey’s 6.70 ERA, 1.69 WHIP injury-plagued season. Silver lining for Mets fans, Harvey may now stay because he’s got nowhere else to go.

RP: Zach Britton (BAL): It’s always dangerous to expect the dominant closer from the previous season to repeat their performance. (Something to remember when Alex Colome is discussed in 2018). Injuries hampered the Orioles’ lights-out closer in 2017 but even when healthy, Britton was human. His 15 saves with a 1.53 WHIP severely hamstrung many roto-pens.

As always, my gratitude to the Overlord for giving me a place to say things each week and to all of you that take the time to read The Week That Was.

GO TRIBE!!!

See you in ’18!

Response:  Well, I do not support the Indians but otherwise, it is I who should thank Schultz for great work every week.  And yes, he really does exist!