I think it’s pretty clear we can stop with this debate over whether or not the change to the 10-day DL has caused more injury headaches for fantasy owners or not. It doesn’t matter. It’s actually a pretty useless discussion given the fact that the majority of injuries we’ve witnessed this year would have been DL stints regardless of the length of stay. Sure, there may be one or two out there where the team has been erring on the side of caution, but for the most part, let’s face it…injuries have been crazy abundant this season and finding replacements has become more of an exercise in futility than anything else.
Outside of leagues with 10 teams or fewer, your waiver wire is a desolate wasteland and trying to find long-term help to patch the holes in your roster is nearly impossible. With so many injuries, virtually every team in your league has been affected and everyone in your league has been forced to seek alternative help. As a result, your process needs to change. The days of just rotating players on and off your roster needs to be vastly more selective than it has in the past, otherwise, you’re going to be forced into dropping players you should simply be stashing away.
Even just a cursory glance at your waiver wire options over the weekend should have told you this. Closers are always a different story as the turnover on a number of teams should remain a constant. This past week, we’ve seen Addison Reed, Justin Wilson, Corey Knebel, Matt Albers and Derek Law become highly coveted additions and save for maybe, Reed, none of them could be closing in a week’s time. If your draft day decisions have led you to chasing saves, it’s just something you have to do, not just at this point, but for the entire season. But your options for position players and even for most starting pitchers, they are not only moves you don’t want to make, but moves you probably shouldn’t make, if you’re planning on holding back some FAAB budget for the second half of the season.
What is adding Tommy Pham really going to do for your roster? Sure, he’s hit safely in seven of his last nine games, but where is he going when Stephen Piscotty comes back from the DL later this week? Right back to the bench, people. Right back to the bench. Maybe he sees a spot-start here and there, but is he really going to be a productive body for you or is he destined to sit on your bench until you’re ready to add the next flavor of the month?
What about Joe Biagini? With injuries to Aaron Sanchez (who just came off the DL yesterday), J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano, the Jays have been forced into using Biagini in the rotation. He looked fine in these two recent starts and didn’t allow a run in nine innings, but what are you grabbing him for at this point? Maybe he makes another start or two before the others start to come back? How many innings will that bring you? Maybe he worked as a starter in the minors, but last season he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen and this season he worked as a reliever throughout the spring. If the team can get five innings out of him in a spot-start, then great, but he’s not suddenly going to build up his arm-strength and suddenly go seven innings per outing. The team is continuously monitoring his pitch-count and innings so they don’t ruin his arm here. He’s more valuable to them working two innings at a time from the bullpen.
Moves like this are just going to siphon your FAAB budget or force you into wasting your waiver priority for what…? A quick fix here for a week or two? All you’re doing is chasing yesterday’s numbers again. Think about it. In his first three games as a starter, Pham went 6-for-12 (.500) with three home runs, five RBI, three runs scored and a stolen base. What has he done for you since? Over his last six games, he’s hit .304 (7-for-23) with no home runs, three RBI, five runs scored and a pair of stolen bases. That’s not bad at all, but it’s nowhere near as good as it was over his first three games. Now you’ve got maybe a handful of games before Piscotty returns and Pham stops seeing regular at-bats, so what’s he given you? Exactly.
Playing your waiver wire this year is going to be a lot like hitters showing newfound plate discipline. When you see a hitter being more selective at the plate, his success rate increases. He’s focused on his pitch recognition, he’s not swinging as much and subsequently, he’s not up there just hacking away. You have to do the same thing with your waiver wire selections. You need to look beyond just what the numbers over the last seven or 14 days are telling you because they are giving you a very limited story. You need to look at the team as a whole. You need to look at things like the team’s roster construction, how long players will be out with injuries and what the manager likes to do with playing time and platoons. You need to look at the players available and see if they not only fit your fantasy roster, but they fit their respective real-life team’s roster as well.
I can go back to Pham over and over again, but there are a ton of players out there just like him. How about Trey Mancini? His playing time comes in spurts based on the weekly match-ups and the whim of manager Buck Showalter. He may be the preferred right-handed bat for right now, but Hyun-Soo Kim is still going to see some work as a lefty hitter and Mancini will only stave off Joey Rickard for as long as he’s hitting and guess what…? His 2-for-13 with no extra-base hits, no homers, no RBI and no runs scored over his last four games isn’t going to entice Showalter to sticking with him on a regular basis.
It's the same with Ian Happ. Everyone loves rookie call-ups and manager Joe Maddon says the kid could stick around “…as long as he’s hitting like this (3-for-7 with a double, a home run and two RBI),” but come on….you’re going to rely on that and blow your waiver priority or FAAB dollars? Maddon is the king of platoons, he already has a super-utility in Javier Baez and Jason Heyward is due back from the DL later this week. Where is Happ going to play?
Instead of looking at the two or three-game sample size and buying into hype, look at teams with players who are expected to be out longer. Maybe Adam Rosales isn’t a sexy name, but with Marcus Semien still in a cast, how is Rosales still available? The guy is batting .304 (7-for-23) with three doubles, one home run, three RBI and a pair of runs scored over his last seven games and while there’s nothing dynamic about it, it’s still steady production from a guy playing every day.
Go check out a guy like Ryan Rua who could see even more at-bats with Carlos Gomez on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Delino DeShields will move over to center field which should open things up a little more for Rua. Maybe Shin-Soo Choo sees some more time in the outfield, but if he does, that just means Mike Napoli will DH and Rua can move over to first base.
You also still have at least two weeks of Ben Gamel in Seattle. Mitch Haniger is supposed to come back at the end of May, but working his way back from an oblique issue will take time. Gamel may even stay an extra week or two if Haniger gets off to a slow start in his return.
People are going to go crazy over Gregor Blanco this week with A.J. Pollock dealing with a groin injury. But before you go blowing your wad on him, understand that the Diamondbacks could just as easily go with Chris Owings in the outfield and give the platoon of Nick Ahmed and Daniel Descalso extra playing time. Sure, Blanco could see a few starts, but is he really going to be worth it? Even if Pollock is out for a few weeks, you’re still not going to see a 33-year old who spent the majority of his career as a platooner suddenly turn into some dynamic waiver addition.
And don’t get me started on the starting pitching that people are picking up off their wire. I mean, come on. Zack Godley? Scott Feldman? Kyle Freeland? These are names you’re looking to add to your rotation? You’re better off sticking with the guys on your roster than you are chasing the one or two starts these guys might make to help you. Swapping out Derek Holland or Sonny Gray for one of these guys will have you spinning your wheels and getting you nowhere.
Just look deeper is all I’m saying here. Don’t just look at stats from a short time span and say the guy is playing regularly and is doing well. Don’t look at two starts against clubs like San Francisco and San Diego and think, you’ve found some hidden treasure. If you have to replace an injury, then fine. Grab someone of actual value off your wire. If there isn’t anyone, then maybe you just sit tight for the week. Are you really going to lose that much ground in a week’s time? I know it’s difficult for many of you to sit on your hands and roll with what you have, but sometimes the best move for your team is the one you don’t make.