Some people call it butterflies. Some call it nervous energy. My wife tells me it’s all the Red Bull and 5-Hour Energy I consume throughout my day, but I’ll continue to live in denial and go with the first two. I do have butterflies in my stomach. I am chock full of nervous energy. But most of all, I am just plain excited. And why wouldn’t I be? It’s Opening Day for MLB and the first day of a brand new fantasy baseball season! Sundays just don’t get any better than this for me!
I had all these ideas swimming through my head as to how I was going to welcome all of you into the 2017 MLB season, but in truth, there’s no need for pomp or circumstance. The season is what it is and if you’re a fan, you’re probably bubbling over with excitement as well. But as you go through setting your season-long and DFS lineups I just wanted use this first edition of The Daily Bender to share some of my thoughts on today’s games, what Fantasy Alarm is bringing to you this season and how excited we are to help guide you towards your season-long championships and DFS success.
The DFS team assembled for this season has been working at maximum capacity over these last few weeks in an effort to not just lead you to the Promised Land, but also teach you how to get there on your own. The DFS Playbook, Rankings, Optimal Lineups, Stacks and strategy articles should serve as a strong foundation and the MLB tools we’ve created should provide you with ample research capabilities as you build your own lineups and style of play. I could sit here and go on and on, but instead, I’ll just direct you to Nick Berns’ Intro to the MLB Playbook which should serve as a fantastic springboard to your successful game play.
I actually wrote up an intro that outlines everything we are offering this season, so if you haven’t read it yet, you’re going to want to give it a look. Along with the added research tools, I’ve taken great care in selecting the right authors for the right columns to help you throughout your season. I’m a very hands-on guy when it comes to the content Fantasy Alarm puts out and am always striving for it to serve you in better ways. If there are particular topics you think need more attention, hit me up at howard@fantasyalarm.com.
Really, can I mention our tools just one more time here? Just look at this page! Some require a subscription to one of our Playbook packages, so keep that in mind, but seriously….regardless of whether you’re a seasonal or a daily player, these resources are absolutely spectacular.
OK, so now that I’ve gushed about the team and everything we’ve rolled out here at the start of the season, let’s get to the three games on the Opening Day slate.
Yankees vs Rays
Chris Archer’s swing-and-miss stuff really shined in the second half of last year thanks to the improved command and use of his slider. He actually used it over 73-percent of the time in two-strike counts over the final month of the season, so while that helped him rank in the top-5 of swinging-strike rate during that span, remember that hitters are going to be looking for it and adjusting when they can.
Love the BvP numbers for Jacoby Ellsbury today, but even more keen on seeing how lefty-swinging Greg Bird is going to fare after such a torrid spring.
The Rays have a lefty-heavy lineup today for Masahiro Tanaka, but if you look at last year’s numbers, lefties had the third-highest chase percentage (37.6%) on the season, so I’m expecting a potential reprise and some decent strikeout totals. In fact, I’m using Tanaka in a number of lineups today in the hopes that he also repeats that 8.1-percent line drive against rate he had over the final month of the season which was the fourth lowest in the majors during that span.
Giants at Diamondbacks
Zack Greinke’s struggles this spring have me looking at all sorts of lefty bats in the Giants lineup today. Aw, hell I’m looking at the righty bats too as they hit him at a .365 clip with a 1.001 OPS during the second half of last season. Stack, stackity, stack, stack!
Today would actually be the perfect opportunity for Hunter Pence to reward those of us who drafted him late this year. He’s got a .337 wOBA and two dingers against Greinke in 29 at-bats.
While Paul Goldschmidt has the BvP numbers against Madison Bumgarner you love, keep in mind that he is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA over his last six starts at Chase Field. It’s definitely a hitter’s ballpark, but MadBum has allowed just two homers (both from Goldy) over the last three seasons.
Cubs at Cardinals
Who’s going to be chalkier today – Anthony Rizzo with his .501 wOBA and three home runs against Carlos Martinez or Jhonny Peralta who seems to own Jon Lester to the tune of a .346 wOBA and three home runs? I’m guessing Rizzo, but you’re damned right I’m playing Peralta as well.
In fact, I’m sort of digging a Cardinals mini-stack once you get down to the Peralta, Yadier Molina, Stephen Piscotty part of the lineup.
Lots of folks are talking up the Cubs stack today and while they will likely get their knocks off Carlos Martinez today, remember that C-Mart actually induced 33 ground ball double plays in 174 chances last year which ranked third among qualified starters. The WHIP could be tough at times, but that doesn’t mean we’re looking at a ton of runs.
Final Thoughts
So there you go, people. Just a taste here. I’m pulling for my Yankees over the Rays, I like the Giants to smack around the D-Backs and guess what…? I’m looking for a Cardinals to saddle the defending World Series champions with an 0-1 record to open the year. But most of all, I’m just looking for some outstanding games here. Can’t wait! So buckle up, folks. This is going to be one hell of a six-month ride!
And don't forget, you can now catch me Monday through Friday from 4-6pm ET on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio as well as Saturdays from 3-5pm ET and Sunday nights from 8-11pm ET. Damn, this is gonna be fun!!!