Target Speed Late

If you’ve been listening to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio lately, then you’ve already been inundated with all sorts of talk about stolen bases. The decline in speed we witnessed last season has apparently stood out like a turd in a punch bowl and heading into the January 23^rdFSTA Experts Draft, the declaration of speed being at a premium this season was heard loud and clear. Five of the top burners were off the board by the end of the third round and when Billy Hamilton was taken with the first pick of the fourth (40^th overall), you knew the pundits were focused on speed.

Yes, you read that correctly. Billy Hamilton, the guy fantasy pundits have been laughing at for two years, was the 40^th player off the board. His 2016 ADP sat near the 120 marker in both the NFBC and Mock Draft Army, but with speed apparently now being at such a premium and his .369 OBP in the second half last year, he’s now a highly-coveted commodity in the fantasy baseball kingdom. Not sure why people believe in his second half for OBP but dismiss the second half power of Justin Upton, but that's an argument for another day. Let's stick to the speed.

But should you be buying into all of this? I don’t think so. I do agree that stolen bases are at a premium this year, but to such a degree that players like Hamilton and Jonathan Villar are worth a top-40 pick in fantasy drafts? No. Let others in your draft make that mistake. You can target speed late and still remain in the upper echelon in steals in your league.

Let’s start by taking a look at the top-50 base-stealers from last year (minimum 350 PA):

If you look through that list of players, you’ll find nine who finished with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Another six just missed that plateau by either three or fewer home runs or three or fewer stolen bases. Lower that number to five (homers or steals), and you can add seven more names to that list. While there are names which I may not believe in for a repeat, overall, we’re still looking at 22 players who went, at a minimum, either 20-15 or 15-20 last season. Again, there are obvious exceptions, but those are the players you should covet early – guys who have a strong blend of both power and speed.

Now take a look at the FSTA draft board.

After Hamilton was taken in the fourth round, we still had Wil Myers, Ian Desmond and Jean Segura on the board. All three went 20-20 last year. We also saw Gregory Polanco, Ian Kinsler and Jason Kipnis still available. While none of them stole as many bases as Hamilton, all of them had stronger overall production.

Now look deeper into the draft. Rajai Davis had 43 stolen bases last year and was taken in the 11^th round. So did Eduardo Nunez and his 40 steals. Hernan Perez (34) and Travis Jankowski (30) were both available in the 21^st round while Leonys Martin (24) sat until the 23^rd.  And we haven’t even discussed the potential of speedsters like Jarrod Dyson, Mallex Smith, Jose Peraza, Cameron Maybin, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ketel Marte and Ben Revere. I’m not saying these guys don’t have warts, but they can certainly help augment your steals total at a ridiculously low cost.

If stolen bases are a concern of yours early, then when you’re picking your stud in the first round, grab a Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, Charlie Blackmon or even a Bryce Harper – guys who will contribute well in the category. Then look for your better across-the-board producers like Desmond, Myers and/or Polanco in the next couple of rounds. You’ll have a much more balanced squad through the first 10 rounds of your draft.

And don’t forget, those late-round speed guys you grab will also contribute runs scored and batting average. Your opponents, who will find themselves fishing for late home runs to make up for that early burner, won’t be able to say the same about the late-round power help they now need to find.