SWIP: Pitching Dominance & Control

We’re all into acronyms in fantasy baseball. Terms like WAR, BABAIP and GB/FB etc. are all the rage. I think we should add another one, SWIP, to the mix. I’ve been extolling the virtues of SWIP for years, since I “invented it” (true story), and given it’s simplicity and importance, getting right to the heart of the matter, I’m just not clear why it hasn’t caught on. Regardless, the fact that it hasn’t is a good thing for you since you’ve found the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide and are now reading about SWIP – which if I’m being honest is the same idea as the K/BB ratio that we all know and love. It won’t change your world or anything, but it should help you to evaluate pitchers.

WHAT IS SWIP?

We can all agree that strikeouts are good and walks are bad, right? I hope everyone is nodding their head yes. If you aren’t nodding, the question is why? Seems pretty obvious to me, so I’m just going to push ahead like we are all in agreement.

Therefore, why don’t we do something very simple, likely, give a (+1) for the good outcome, and a (-1) fort the bad outcome. That makes sense, right? Good.

On to the application.

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation.

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP.

EXAMPLE

Marcus Stroman had 166 Ks and 55 BBs in 204 innings in 2016.
(166-54) / 204
112 / 204
0.549

Stroman’s SWIP for the 2016 season was therefore 0.55.

HOW DO YOU READ SWIP?

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better.

SWIP isn’t perfect, so it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP, chiefly that SWIP favors pitchers with strikeout arms while often shortchanging those pitchers who might actually be “better” real world pitchers. Like any other measure SWIP is part of, but not the entire, story.

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will. The key speaks more toward starting pitchers (relievers should all be at least at 0.50).

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89: An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69: Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50: A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34: His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all Major-League hurlers performed in 2016.

38,982 Strikeouts
15,088 Walks
43,306.1 IP

So in order to find out the Major-League average for SWIP during the 2016 season let's plug the numbers into the equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(38,982 – 15,088) / 43,307.1
23,894 / 43,306.1
0.551
SWIP = 0.55

The 0.54 mark last season is a major league best in the 21st century, tying the 2014 league mark, as the rate keeps inching upward in an almost linear path.

2000: 0.30 SWIP    2001: 0.38 SWIP    2002: 0.35 SWIP    2015: 0.54 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP    2004: 0.36 SWIP    2005: 0.36 SWIP    2016: 0.55 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP    2007: 0.37 SWIP    2008: 0.38 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP    2010: 0.43 SWIP    2011: 0.45 SWIP
2012: 0.50 SWIP    2013: 0.51 SWIP    2014: 0.54 SWIP  

As you can see, hurlers the last two years have posted their best SWIP marks of the 21^st century. Pitchers simply impress more and more with the strikeout while continuing to limit the free pass effectively.

With that, let’s get to blocks of hurlers based upon their innings pitched.

160+ INNINGS PITCHED

R.I.P. Jose Fernandez.

Scherzer dominates like no other in the modern game besides Clayton Kershaw. Scherzer has struck out at least 230 batters in 5-straight seasons and 250 the last three. No one in baseball can match that dominance.

Syndergaard... duh.

Pineda was fifth in baseball last season with a 10.61 K/9 mark and he walked a total of 2.72 batters per nine, higher than his mark the previous two seasons – combined (0.83 and 1.18).

Verlander struck out 254 batters in 2016. In 2014 and ’15 he struck out a total of 272 batters. Really.

Ray struck out 218 batters in 174.1 innings. Did you notice? That led to a massive 11.25 K/9 rate which was second best in baseball. Alas he also walked 3.67 batters per nine, the league average was 3.14 last season, which is why Ray didn’t post an even higher SWIP number.

Archer struggled in the ratio categories, but his 3.48 K/BB ratio was above his career mark of 3.11. It wasn’t as bad as some thought last year.

Duffy, in five seasons, never posted a K/BB ratio above 2.13. Last year he more than doubled it at 4.48. SWIP is therefore a fan. I am not.

Gray, oddly, had a 4.91 ERA on the road last year, higher than the 4.30 mark he posted at home. Odd point #2, he also posted a stellar 5.22 K/BB ratio at home and a league average 2.22 mark on the road. Intrigued for 2017 am I.

Pomeranz limped home late as the innings wore him down. Still, he threw a lot of strikes and missed a good deal of bats. Note that his 3.43 BB/9 rate wasn’t very good and it’s right in line with the marks he posted in 2014 and 2015.

Gausman nearly reached a strikeout per inning, and over his last 292 innings his BB/9 has been an impressive 2.34.

Shoemaker only walked 30 batters in 27 starts making his 8.04 K/9 rate play much larger. That 4.77 K/BB rate last season wasn’t much higher than his career mark of 4.26. The skills are here for success if he can keep the ball in the yard.

Porcello walked a career low 1.29 batters per nine, a third straight year under two.

100-159 INNINGS PITCHED

Darvish had a success return on the field in his first year back from Tommy John. Alas, he had a couple of physical setbacks in season. The skills are undeniable, but can the arm old up?

Strasburg... read the last sentence in the Darvish note.

Hill... read the last sentence of the Darvish note.

Nola impressed as a rookie before imploding late due to health woes that shut him down early. Even with the struggles late a 0.83 mark impresses. His teammate Velasquez, well, see the last sentence of the Darvish Note. Last season was the first time that Velasquez threw 130-innings. That’s a low bar.

Carrasco’s skills were basically intact last year, but again, he broke down.

Nicasio didn’t have the season many were hoping for, but there were still successful moments.

Paxton is always hurt, at least it seems that way, but he showed in 2016 that if he’s healthy he can get batters out.

Andriese isn’t a name many will be thinking of on draft day, and his role his always seemingly in flux, but the man finished with a better SWIP than Taillon, and we all know how successful the Pirates’ rookie was last year.

Before you completely ignore Chen in ’17 note that he really didn’t pitch anywhere as poorly as you likely think he did. In fact, his SWIP was better than Greinke/Fulmer/Bundy to name a few.

Cole can’t be trusted to throw 180-innings at this point, let alone 200, and that has his value tumbling heading into 2017. This might be a make or break season for Cole. Does he return to a role of prominence or become the next Andrew Cashner?

Patrick Corbin disappointed me last year (0.42). I’ll still throw a 29^th round pick at him this year.

Felix Hernandez saw his game erode significantly last year and SWIP noticed (0.37). After posting a K/9 of at least 8.50 for 5-straight years the number plummeted to 7.16. Even more concerning it the explosion in his walk rate, up to 3.82 per nine. His career mark is 2.59.

50-99 INNINGS PITCHED

This is the realm of dominating bullpen arms which is why Andrew Miller tops the list. Remember 12 months ago when I told you that you had to draft Miller? I had him on just about every squad last year and reaped the rewards.

Diaz will be the poster boy for everyone this spring. Dominance is his name.

Kelley is a name that might be new to you. Learn it. He could produce a big effort in 2017. Big.

Giles/Feliz in the top-10 for the Astros, not a bad duo at all. Gregerson at 0.85 games and Harris at 0.84 gave the team from Texas four arms in the top-30

Don’t look past Kimbrel like many seemingly are starting to do. He still dominates with health being the concern at this point.

Jones returned from surgery to dominate for the Sox.

Neris didn’t get much work in the 9^th last year with the Phillies but he could easily emerge this season after Jeanmar Gomez (0.36) forgot how to get outs down the stretch. Seriously, it was like he was pitching underhand at times.

Mark Melancon was just off the list at 0.74. Some other 2016 closers: Jim Johnson 0.74, Brandon Maurer 0.70, David Robertson 0.69, Jeurys Familia 0.68, A.J. Ramos 0.59, Tony Watson 0.56, Francisco Rodriguez 0.53, Brandon Kintzler 0.50, Sam Dyson 0.45 and Ryan Madson 0.45.

LESS THAN 50 INNINGS PITCHED

Dario Alvarez... the most impressive season no one noticed.

Maybe the Cardinals weren’t crazy for signing Cecil?

Bedrosian appears ready to take over the 9^th inning.

Weaver has an extremely bright future even though the surface numbers didn’t speak to a high level of success last year.

Corey Knebel had 38 punchouts in 32.2 innings, but the 16 walks are a bit worrisome.

Alex Reyes had a mark of 0.63. If he can do that over 180-innings in 2017 his owners will be plenty happy.

Garret Richards (0.55) and Tyler Skaggs (0.54) were league average last season. If healthy, both should be better in SWIP.