WHAT IS SWINGING STRIKE RATIO?

Simply put, it’s the rate of swinging strikes per pitch.

Swinging strikes / total pitches

WHAT IS THE LEAGUE AVERAGE?

The league average usually in the 9-10 percent range. Last season was the first time in the 20th century the mark was over 10 percent at 10.1 percent. The 9.9 percent mark in 2015 was the second highest mark ever.

Batters (2016): 25 men were under 7.0 percent, 67 men were over 10.0 percent
Batters (2014-16): 51 men were under 7.0 percent, 89 men were over 10.0 percent

Pitchers (2016): 21 men were under 9.0 percent, 34 men were over 10.0 percent
Pitchers (2014-16): 64 men were under 9.0 percent, 46 men were over 10.0 percent

The trends are pretty obvious. Swinging strikes are on the rise while the era of the slap hitter who never stuck out seems to be in the rearview mirror.

WHAT IS THE IMPORTANCE OF SWINGING STRIKES?

On the obvious front... if you don’t hit the ball the amount of positive outcomes, for a hitter, are reduced greatly. Conversely, pitchers who don’t allow batters to hit the ball significantly increases the odds of success. Strikeouts aren’t everything of course, but they are a prime indicator (see Strikeout and Walk Rates Matter). We all accept Chris Carter if we need power or Bartolo Colon if we need ratios, strikeouts or not, but the general point hopefully isn’t lost on you. The fact is that there are many ways to succeed in baseball. The second fact is that the swinging strike is often a clear indicator of success, or failure, both for pitchers and hitters.

Take a look at some of the names in the bottom 10 the last three years amongst hitters: Avisail Garcia, Mike Zunino, Marlon Byrd, Ryan Howard, Danny Espinosa. Not much good there. Of course there are the positive outliers – Khris Davis, Chris Carter, Chris Davis – but that’s understood with those type of players. Some guys swing and miss a lot but they do significant damage on the balls they do make contact with. Again, that’s why knowing who the type of player is can be the most important thing.
Let’s set the baselines as follows. These are the targets you want to hit for the category. Note

TARGETS

The numbers listed below are the baseline targets to look for with batters. As mentioned above, don’t forget to realize that all players are different. Carlos Gonzalez can swing and miss a ton and it really doesn’t matter. However, Chris Johnson swinging and missing is a significant problem. Same deal with hurlers. Francisco Liriano was 16th in baseball last season in swinging strike rate. He had a 4.69 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Meanwhile, Mike Fiers had a mark of 8.9 percent, miles from the 11.4 percent mark of Liriano, and he posted a 4.48 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Similar results, but a different way of getting to the same level of results. Heck, Rick Porcello had a very moderate mark of 8.2 percent last season and he won the AL Cy Young award.

PITCHERS: If a pitcher has a mark over 11 percent it’s likely that guy is gonna push a strikeout per inning. If the mark is under nine percent the odds are better than not that he will fail to match the league K/9 mark.

BATTERS: (1) Look for improvement. Often times that is a sign of a change in pitch recognition or approach, especially if it’s a substantial one. Similarly, an uptick in swings and misses could be an indicator of injury or skills slippage. (2) Only one batter, who had a mark of 14.5 percent last season hit .270 (Carlos Gonzalez). (3) Only two men who had a mark under 6.0 percent hit 20 homers: Mookie Betts and Daniel Murphy.

THE 2016 LEADERS

PITCHERS (minimum 100 innings pitched)

* 142 pitchers qualified

The Best

Max Scherzer

15.3

 

Cole Hamels

12.2

 

Madison Bumgarner

11.5

Clayton Kershaw

15.3

 

Chris Archer

12.2

 

John Lackey

11.5

Noah Syndergaard

14.2

 

Jon Gray

12.1

 

Francisco Liriano

11.4

Jose Fernandez

14.2

 

Carlos Carrasco

12.0

 

Chris Sale

11.3

Michael Pineda

14.1

 

Justin Verlander

12.0

 

Vince Velasquez

11.2

Christopher Devenski

13.5

 

David Price

11.9

 

Drew Pomeranz

11.1

Matt Shoemaker

13.1

 

Sean Manaea

11.8

 

Danny Salazar

11.1

Danny Duffy

12.9

 

James Paxton

11.7

 

Joe Ross

11.0

Corey Kluber

12.6

 

Kenta Maeda

11.6

 

Stephen Strasburg

11.0

Yu Darvish

12.6

 

Robbie Ray

11.6

 

Marco Estrada

10.9


The Worst

Bartolo Colon

5.5

 

Kendall Graveman

7.4

 

Miguel Gonzalez

8.0

Doug Fister

5.9

 

Jimmy Nelson

7.4

 

Colby Lewis

8.0

Yovani Gallardo

6.4

 

Jose Quintana

7.6

 

Dillon Gee

8.1

Colin Rea

6.4

 

Jordan Zimmermann

7.7

 

Adam Wainwright

8.1

Mike Pelfrey

6.6

 

Derek Holland

7.8

 

Jered Weaver

8.1

Shelby Miller

7.0

 

Matt Garza

7.8

 

Michael Wacha

8.1

Mike Leake

7.2

 

Hisashi Iwakuma

7.8

 

Aaron Sanchez

8.2

Jon Niese

7.3

 

Tyler Chatwood

7.8

 

Rick Porcello

8.2

Andrew Cashner

7.3

 

Martin Perez

7.9

 

Archie Bradley

8.2

Josh Tomlin

7.4

 

Sonny Gray

8.0

 

Jhoulys Chacin

8.3

 

BATTERS (minimum 400 plate appearances)
* 203 batters qualified

The Best

Martin Prado

3.6

 

Jose Ramirez

4.9

 

Buster Posey

6.1

Jose Iglesias

3.9

 

Nori Aoki

5.0

 

Jordy Mercer

6.1

DJ LeMahieu

4.1

 

J.J. Hardy

5.1

 

Melky Cabrera

6.1

Ben Zobrist

4.1

 

Daniel Murphy

5.2

 

Aaron Hill

6.2

Joe Panik

4.2

 

Brett Gardner

5.2

 

Anthony Rendon

6.4

Angel Pagan

4.2

 

Mookie Betts

5.2

 

Jace Peterson

6.4

Ender Inciarte

4.4

 

Denard Span

5.5

 

John Jaso

6.4

Nick Markakis

4.8

 

Andrelton Simmons

5.5

 

Elvis Andrus

6.4

Dustin Pedroia

4.8

 

Jason Heyward

6.0

 

Albert Pujols

6.6

Joe Mauer

4.9

 

Josh Reddick

6.0

 

Ian Kinsler

6.6

 

The Worst

Avisail Garcia

17.2

 

Adam Jones

15.1

 

Javier Baez

14.4

Khris Davis

16.6

 

Matt Kemp

15.0

 

Freddie Freeman

14.1

Brandon Moss

16.5

 

Randal Grichuk

15.0

 

J.D. Martinez

14.1

Yasmany Tomas

16.3

 

Colby Rasmus

14.9

 

Miguel Sano

14.0

Jonathan Schoop

162

 

Corey Dickerson

14.9

 

Leonys Martin

13.8

Melvin Upton

16.1

 

Danny Espinosa

14.9

 

Mark Trumbo

13.6

Carlos Gomez

15.9

 

Tim Anderson

14.7

 

Cameron Rupp

13.3

Steven Souza

15.6

 

Carlos Gonzalez

14.7

 

Nelson Cruz

13.2

Chris Carter

15.5

 

Chris Davis

14.6

 

Hunter Pence

13.1

Giancarlo Stanton

15.2

 

Nick Castellanos

14.6

 

Hernan Perez

13.1

 

THE 2014-16 LEADERS

PITCHERS (minimum 300 innings pitched)

* 132 pitchers qualified

The Best

Name

SwStr%

 

Name

SwStr%

Clayton Kershaw

15.2%

 

Felix Hernandez

10.9%

Max Scherzer

14.1%

 

Jake Arrieta

10.7%

Noah Syndergaard

13.3%

 

Collin McHugh

10.7%

Carlos Carrasco

13.2%

 

Erasmo Ramirez

10.6%

Francisco Liriano

13.1%

 

Ervin Santana

10.6%

Chris Sale

12.9%

 

Jorge De La Rosa

10.6%

Michael Pineda

12.8%

 

Julio Teheran

10.6%

Corey Kluber

12.5%

 

Jeremy Hellickson

10.5%

Cole Hamels

12.5%

 

Carlos Martinez

10.5%

Tyson Ross

12.5%

 

Drew Pomeranz

10.5%

Masahiro Tanaka

11.8%

 

Marco Estrada

10.5%

Jacob deGrom

11.8%

 

Drew Hutchison

10.4%

Madison Bumgarner

11.7%

 

Drew Smyly

10.4%

Chris Archer

11.5%

 

James Shields

10.4%

Zack Greinke

11.4%

 

Kevin Gausman

10.3%

David Price

11.4%

 

Justin Verlander

10.3%

Danny Salazar

11.4%

 

John Lackey

10.2%

Stephen Strasburg

11.2%

 

Jon Lester

10.2%

Matt Shoemaker

11.1%

 

Jason Hammel

10.2%

Garrett Richards

11.0%

 

Rubby De La Rosa

10.1%

 

The Worst

Name

SwStr%

 

Name

SwStr%

Doug Fister

5.8%

 

Martin Perez

7.7%

Bartolo Colon

5.8%

 

Aaron Harang

7.7%

Mark Buehrle

5.8%

 

Aaron Sanchez

7.7%

Mike Pelfrey

5.9%

 

Colby Lewis

7.8%

David Phelps

6.3%

 

Andrew Cashner

7.8%

Dan Haren

6.7%

 

Ubaldo Jimenez

7.8%

Scott Feldman

6.7%

 

Dillon Gee

7.9%

Jon Niese

6.7%

 

Shelby Miller

7.9%

Yovani Gallardo

6.7%

 

C.J. Wilson

7.9%

Jarred Cosart

6.7%

 

Tommy Milone

8.0%

Mike Leake

6.8%

 

Hector Santiago

8.0%

Nick Martinez

6.8%

 

Rick Porcello

8.1%

Kyle Kendrick

6.9%

 

Charlie Morton

8.1%

Jeremy Guthrie

6.9%

 

Alfredo Simon

8.1%

Ryan Vogelsong

6.9%

 

Wily Peralta

8.1%

Phil Hughes

7.3%

 

Miguel Gonzalez

8.3%

Josh Collmenter

7.4%

 

Matt Garza

8.3%

Travis Wood

7.5%

 

Tanner Roark

8.3%

Kendall Graveman

7.6%

 

Josh Tomlin

8.4%

Chris Tillman

7.6%

 

Adam Wainwright

8.4%

 

BATTERS (minimum 1,000 plate appearances)

* 235 batters qualified

The Best

Name

SwStr%

 

Name

SwStr%

Michael Brantley

3.4%

 

Andrelton Simmons

5.6%

Ben Revere

3.6%

 

Melky Cabrera

5.6%

Nick Markakis

4.1%

 

Jose Altuve

5.6%

Martin Prado

4.1%

 

Matt Carpenter

5.7%

Nori Aoki

4.3%

 

Anthony Rendon

5.7%

Denard Span

4.4%

 

Brett Gardner

5.7%

Ben Zobrist

4.5%

 

Elvis Andrus

5.7%

Angel Pagan

4.6%

 

Joe Mauer

5.7%

Joe Panik

4.7%

 

DJ LeMahieu

5.7%

Dustin Pedroia

4.9%

 

Buster Posey

5.9%

Ender Inciarte

4.9%

 

Chase Utley

6.0%

Brock Holt

5.0%

 

Yangervis Solarte

6.0%

Jose Ramirez

5.0%

 

Dee Gordon

6.1%

Daniel Murphy

5.0%

 

Jonathan Lucroy

6.2%

Mookie Betts

5.2%

 

Coco Crisp

6.3%

Kurt Suzuki

5.3%

 

J.J. Hardy

6.3%

Ian Kinsler

5.5%

 

Erick Aybar

6.4%

James Loney

5.5%

 

Adam Eaton

6.5%

Victor Martinez

5.5%

 

Jed Lowrie

6.6%

Ichiro Suzuki

5.6%

 

Stephen Vogt

6.6%

 

The Worst

Name

SwStr%

 

Name

SwStr%

Avisail Garcia

17.4%

 

Brandon Moss

14.1%

Mike Zunino

17.1%

 

Nick Castellanos

14.1%

Marlon Byrd

16.9%

 

Mark Trumbo

14.0%

Ryan Howard

16.4%

 

Matt Kemp

13.9%

Chris Carter

16.1%

 

Mark Reynolds

13.5%

Jonathan Schoop

15.7%

 

Pedro Alvarez

13.5%

Melvin Upton Jr.

15.5%

 

Addison Russell

13.4%

Khris Davis

15.3%

 

Corey Dickerson

13.3%

Danny Espinosa

15.3%

 

Jason Castro

13.2%

Chris Davis

15.2%

 

Nelson Cruz

13.2%

Carlos Gonzalez

15.0%

 

Ian Desmond

13.1%

Kris Bryant

14.7%

 

Starling Marte

13.1%

J.D. Martinez

14.7%

 

Justin Upton

12.9%

Chris Johnson

14.7%

 

Brandon Crawford

12.9%

Colby Rasmus

14.3%

 

Yasiel Puig

12.8%

Carlos Gomez

14.3%

 

Freddie Freeman

12.6%

George Springer

14.2%

 

Marcell Ozuna

12.4%

Tyler Flowers

14.2%

 

Jose Abreu

12.4%

Adam Jones

14.2%

 

Joc Pederson

12.3%

Giancarlo Stanton

14.1%

 

Todd Frazier

12.3%