Strikeout and Walk Rates Matter

The strikeout and the walk are paramount when trying to understand the relative value of an offensive performer.

We talk a lot about the fantasy numbers used in most leagues. However, as we are hopefully pointing out in great detail in this draft guide, there is much more to a player than his 5x5 fantasy numbers. In this article we will focus on the importance of understanding the strikeout and the walk, two vital components that contribute to offensive success/failure.

* This article will focus on hitters with the companion piece for pitchers being titled Swinging Strike Ratios.

LEAGUE RATES

Here are the baselines, the 2016 league averages.

K/9 – 8.10

BB/9 – 3.14

K/BB – 2.58

BB/K ratio – 0.39

K% - strikeouts / plate appearances

BB% - walks / plate appearances

Here is a table from Fangraphs to help you understand what we’re going to be discussing.

Why should you care about the walk and the strikeout? Pretty obvious off the top end, as you might guess. The name of the game is getting on base and scoring runs. Walks help while strikeouts don’t. Fail to put the ball in play and you don’t get on base, you can’t score a run, and you don’t help your team by pushing other runners around the bases. Additionally, hitters who understand the strike zone have a better chance of being stable at the dish (i.e. being more consistent). The data clearly shows that being able to handle the strike zone, to make consistent contact while taking the walk, is a huge indicator of success at the dish.

Let’s dig into the data.

K-RATE

Pretty obvious that if you’re whiffing, you are plummeting in batting average. How bad is it for those who strike out with alarming frequency?

From 2014-16 (minimum 1,000 plate appearances)

K% - strikeouts / plate appearances

There were 31 men with a K-rate of at least 25 percent. Of those 31 men:

None hit .300

One hit .290 – J.D. Martinez (.299)

One hit .280 – Kris Bryant (.284)

None hit .270

Three hit .260 – Giancarlo Stanton (.266), Jonathan Villar (.264), David Freese (.262)

Four others hit .254 – Ian Desmond (.258), George Springer (.258), Marlon Byrd (.257), Justin Upton (.256)

That’s nine men out of 31 who hit .254, the big league average the past three seasons, with a K-rate of 25 percent.

If you strike out a ton, producing a big league average in the batting average category can be difficult.

BB-RATE

Let’s take a look at the men who are apt to take the free pass.

From 2014-16 (minimum 1,000 plate appearances)

BB% - walks / plate appearances

There were 30 men who had a BB-rate of 5.0 or less. Of those 30 men:

One hit .300 – Dee Gordon (.302)

Two hit .290 – Josh Harrison (.296), Starling Marte (.296)

Three hit .280 – Ben Revere (.286), Brandon Phillips (.285), J.T. Realmuto (.281)

Six hit .270 –  Eduardo Nunez (.278), Jean Segura (.277), Starlin Castro (.275), Adam Jones (.272), Kevin Pillar (.272), Gerardo Parra (.270).

Ten hit .260 – Marwin Gonzalez (.268), Alcides Escobar (.267), C.J. Cron (.267), Aramis Ramirez (.266), Rougned Odor (.265), Juan Lagares (.265), Torii Hunter (.264), A.J. Pierzynski (.263), Didi Gregorius (.262), Wilmer Flores (.261).

Note that those who have this approach, and also have success, are extremely speed oriented. One has to think that these “fast” fellas are able to ‘outproduce’ their walk rate in the batting average category because they are able to beat out a few more hits over the course of the year than one would expect, thereby allowing them to keep their average up at a respectable level. You won’t be finding many hitters bat even .270 if they aren’t fleet of foot. Pay attention to where your “slugger” is at in-season. If he’s not walking, the odds of his batting average ticking upward are minimal.

Let’s look at it positively by listing the men who walk an awful lot.

There were 51 men who posted a BB-rate of at least 10.0 percent. Thirteen of them hit at least .284. Eighteen hit at least .272. Moreover, nine of the 51 posted an OPS of .900 last season while 24 of them had an OPS of at least .800.

SUMMATION

There is a correlation between a lack of strikeouts and solid batting average marks. Same can also be said of the link between taking a walk and giving yourself a better shot at producing in the batting average category. Keep a close eye on both measures in-season as they might portend coming success or failure.

BB/K RATIO

Batters in 2016 (minimum 502 plate appearances): 146 total

There were 26 men who had a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or less.

Two hit .300 – Starling Marte (.311) and J.T. Realmuto (.303)

One hit .290 – Brandon Phillips (.291)

Two hit .280 – Josh Harrison (.283) and Ian Desmond (.285)

One hit .270 – Mitch Moreland (.278)

Of the 26 men that had a BB/K ratio under 0.30 only five hit .280.
In 2015 men that posted a mark of 0.30 or less hit .280 five times.
In 2014 men that posted a mark of 0.30 or less hit .280 10 times.
In 2013 men that posted a mark of 0.30 or less hit .280 10 times.

Let’s take the number down to .270. Here are those numbers.

2013: 24 posted a K/BB of 0.30 or lower, 11 hit .270.
2014: 29 posted a K/BB of 0.30 or lower, 13 hit .270.
2015: 31 posted a K/BB of 0.30 or lower, 8 hit .270.
2016: 26 posted a K/BB of 0.30 or lower, 10 hit .270.

Realize that this data is slightly misleading. Names like Starling Marte, Brandon Phillips and Josh Harrison show up repeatedly. The fact is that the numbers are even worse if you remove the handful of men who routinely post a mark that low.

The last three years there have been 84 seasons of a batter who qualified for the batting title with a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or lower. Of those 84 seasons only 20 have produced a batting average of .280. That means you have less than a 1-in-4 chance of batting .280 the last three seasons with a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or under.

Let’s expand that.

The last four seasons there have been 110 seasons of a batter who qualified for the batting title with a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or lower. Of those 110 seasons only 30 have produced a .280 batting average. That means you have a slightly better than 25 percent chance of batting .280, the last four years, if your BB/K ratio was 0.30 or less.

SUMMATION

What should be clear is that it’s difficult to hit even .270 if you have a below league average BB/ratio. It should also be obvious that you have a better chance of doing so if you are fast as your wheels can help you beat out enough grounders to keep your average in the positive.

Take a look at the last three seasons, 2014 to 2016. In that time, there have been 51 batters who have posted a BB/K ratio of 0.30 or lower. How many hit .280 the last three years? The answer is three (Dee Gordon .302, Starling Marte .296, Corey Dickerson .281). How many hit .270? That answers is five (Jean Segura .277, Starlin Castro .275, Matt Kemp .273, Adam Jones .272, Scooter Gennett .272, Gerardo Parra .270). That’s eight out of 51 men who posted a 0.30 or worse BB/K ratio the last three years who also hit a mere .270.

The ability to control the strike zone is one of the main factors that contribute to his batting average output. As the brief survey above also shows, it’s extremely difficult to continually be a below average producer in the BB/K column and hit even .270 consistently.

Guys who strike out and don’t walk aren’t my favorite options.
Guys who don’t take a walk frustrate me.

Can you have success if you strike out too much or if you don’t walk? Absolutely. Can you if you do both? You can, but it’s very difficult.

Target guys who put the ball in play while at the same time aren’t afraid to work deep into counts to work free passes from the pitcher. Those are the guys you should be targeting on draft day.