Do Spring Training stats matter? That’s a long running question that, honestly, doesn’t have a clear cut answer. Players are working on things. Maybe they are trying to hit the ball the other way. Perhaps they are working on pulling it. Maybe a hurler is working on the inside part of the plate or on honing a new pitch. Beyond that there’s this – who are the established major leaguers battling against? Is the MLB vet facing Double-A batters? Is that MLB hitter ripping home runs of a Triple-A arm? Questions such as those are part of the ongoing struggle to evaluate spring numbers.
A report at MLB.com believes that Spring Training numbers matter. At least a little.
A report over at Fangraphs suggested that substantial spring growth might portend success.
Maybe spring stats matter when it comes to the strikeout?
Dan Rosenheck wrote an article for SABR titled “Spring Training Stats Matter – Yes They Do.”
The bottom line appears to be that we can glean things from Spring. Probably. We think.
Regardless of how much the Spring numbers really matter, we have to admit that they are intriguing to look at. If a guy is batting .180 we get nervous. If a guy is batting .350 we get excited. In this piece I will break down a few of the notable numbers for hitters while making no long-term claim that what we’ve seen the past month will completely reflect the reality of what the 2016 will bring when completed.
POSITIVE
Nolan Arenado is batting .553 with a 1.526 OPS. Amazing, but I still have some concerns. See his Player Profile.
The Diamondbacks sure seem set at third base, and that’s not even taking into account Yasmani Tomas. This spring Jake Lamb, who will start at third base, has hit .391 with a 1.209 OPS along with 13 RBI. He’s also struck out 15 times in 46 at-bats though he has also walked nine times leading to a .491 OBP. Brandon Drury, who will bide his time in the minors, has hit .379 with four homers and a 1.170 OPS.
Yunel Escobar seems likely to hit leadoff for the Angels. His OBP through 16 games this spring is .519.
Mikael Franco has murdered pitches this season spring with eight bombs and 20 RBI being the results. Only three walks in 19 games, I don’t like that at all, and oddly Franco has just one other extra base hit this spring (a double).
Mike Napoli looks like he’s five years younger. Through 16 games he’s hit .419 with a .721 SLG that includes four homers and 14 RBI for the Indians.
Daniel Nava is going to face righties while playing left field for the Angels this season. He’s been locked in, and then some, with a .462/.588/.769 slash line.
Hector Olivera looks ready to rock as a starter for the Braves. He has hit .385 with eight RBI in 18 games but he’s walked one time. That’s scary bad.
Joey Rickard has had a great spring for the Orioles hitting .396 with a 1.041 OPS. He’s also swiped five bases. Problem is, where does he play? Pedro Alvarez is the DH and the outfield has Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo for a daily basis. That leaves Rickard to battle with Nolan Reimold and Hyun-soo Kim, if he makes the team, for playing time.
Michael Taylor (Player Profile) has crushed it this spring with a 1.341 OPS, 15 RBI, four homers and three steals over 17 games. Watch out Jayson Werth.
Tyler White hit .325 with a .442 OBP and .496 SLG last season as he hit 14 homers and drove in 99 runs in 116 games. He’s been crushing it this spring trying to force his way into the lineup with the Astros as he’s hit .366 with a .460 OBP and 10 RBI. Jonathan Singleton (.151 average over 53 at-bats) was demoted to Triple-A and it’s not clear if he, or A.J. Reed, has the upper hand at first base for the totality of this season. Heck, maybe White runs with the job if he keeps a blasting, that is if he can also hold off Marwin Gonzalez.
NEGATIVE
Mookie Betts has hit .321 with a .943 OPS so why is he on the negative list? I don’t like to see 17 games go by and note that he has zero walks.
Freddy Galvis is batting .200 without a single walk through 18 games.
Carlos Gonzalez is batting .217 with two homers through 16 games. Not too worried. Coors Field will fix what ails him.
Jason Heyward was given more than $180 million by the Cubs. It’s been a rough start as he’s hit .182 with a .229 OBP through 15 games.
Aaron Hill is supposed to start for the Brewers at third base this season after Will Middlebrooks was demoted. Hill has a .415 OPS this spring and has looked totally lost.
Kendrys Morales has 10 strikeouts and one walk. He’s also sporting a .599 OPS. Not a big fan of his am I, as you likely know by now.
Brandon Moss has one homer in 44 at-bats. He had better get going if he wants to see a daily role in the Cardinals lineup.
Joc Pederson has been a mess, yet again, a growing concern after his awful work in the second half last season. Through 46 at-bats this spring he’s struck out an alarming 20 times. I still think he has to play most days in the Dodgers outfield given the injury to Andre Ethier, but his leash isn’t going to be very long if he keeps striking out so much.
Martin Prado has a .443 OPS. Not too worried about him in direct opposition to Hill.
George Springer has no homers and just one steal through 14 contests. He’s also hit just .243. At least he’s walked nine times and only struck out 10 times, good numbers for the young, rising star.
Jonathan Villar can’t hit, but he can run. He will try to hold off Orlando Arcia for the starting shortstop spot with Brewers. Villar better get going as he’s hit .196 with 15 strikeouts in 46 at-bats. Can’t trust him.
Christian Yelich has battled some back woes but I’m going to look past his horrible start with a .186/.239/.233 slash line.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).