The inevitable rebound of Robinson Cano highlights this Week’s Week That Was

Robinson Cano:  Robinson Cano had a nice day Saturday going 3-5 with an RBI and two runs scored.  I can understand why many are disappointed in the .272 batting average and one HR.  I cannot understand losing faith.  Over the last 9 years, Cano has hit .300 or better 8 times.  Over those last 9 years, Cano has also had an OBP of .349 or better 8 times.  Oh, and he has hit double digit dingers from the weak 2b position 10 straight years.  When one adds in the fact that Cano is still just 32 years old and now has Nelson Cruz in his lineup, the reasons to worry seem to fade into the rear view mirror.  In this case the item – Cano’s future production for 2015 – does not appear larger in the mirror than it really is.  It is large.  In the last 7 games, Cano has hit .308 and gotten on base at a .387 clip.  That is what you can expect if you stay patient.  For those who play in a league where the Cano owner is shaking a bit, shake down that fool.  Robbie Cano does know.

Shane Greene:  Shane Greene got back on track, tossing 8 innings of 1 run ball Sunday night while giving up just 4 hits.  As was pointed out right here on the update pages at Fantasy Alarm Greene had ten consecutive ground ball outs during the game.  I know there have been some stinkers in there of late, but most of the advanced stats still provide the reasons for optimism they provided prior to the year.  Indeed, Greene’s GB rate up to 50.8%, his first pitch strike percentage is up to almost 63% (and we all know how important it is to get ahead of hitters) and his FIP of 3.53 is well below his ERA – in large part because of the vastly reduced 58% strand percentage – a number that will normalize over time.  If you are looking for something about which to worry, you could look at Greene’s reduced velocity which is down from 93.1 to 91.7.  However, rather than worry, I would call up the Greene owner in your league, leave out all but the velo and see if you can work a deal that could improve your staff enough to take you to the promised land.   

Jesse Chavez:  Jesse Chavez was good, not great Sunday going 6 innings, giving up 7 baserunners and 4 ER while mowing down 7.  Even with the middling outing Sunday, Chavez has a 3.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the year.  With the unfortunate news that Jarrod Parker needs another surgery and that A.J. Griffin had a setback, it looks like Chavez will toe the rubber every 5 days for the foreseeable future.  I like Chavez to continue to produce into the summer if not further.  He is getting more swings and misses this year as his 10.8 swk% shows.  Moreover, he is throwing much harder – his average fastball velo now sits at 93+.  Oh and when you add in that he pitches in the best pitchers’ park this side of Petco, you have even another reason for optimism.  Buy!

Trevor May: Trevor May was not good this weekend giving up 6 runs and 9 hits against the Tribe.  His ERA sits at a number north of 5 but do not give up just yet.  First, May gets the Rays next and that lineup really does not scare anyone.  Second, his 10% swk and 60% pfk (first pitch strike percentage) are both quite strong and portend better things to come.  Third, he has been unlucky as his reduced 64% strand percentage and bloated .379 BABIP can attest.  Fourth, May’s velo still sits at 92 – a number that is the same as a year ago.  I am buying in AL only leagues.

Colby Rasmus:  Colby Rasmus went yard and added two RBI and two runs Saturday.  He will not hit for average but do not be surprised to see him hit more than 25 dingers by the time the season ends.  Indeed, Colby is on pace to do just that.  Bottom line here – if you are in a BA league, Rasmus will hurt you some.  However, if you play in an OBP league, the increased walk rate is likely to make the OBP palatable and Rasmus more valuable. 

 

 

Jackie Bradley, Jr.:  The Bosox sent Allen Craig to AAA and called up Jackie Bradley, Jr. in an attempt to add some spark.  Bradley presents a serious buying opportunity for those smart enough to pounce.  That he is not in the lineup Monday only helps keep unsuspecting owners at bay.  Before being called up, Bradley was raking in AAA to the tune of a .343 batting average and .393 OBP.  Bradley was rushed to the majors when his glove but not his bat was ready.  Now at age 25, both appear to be ready and Bradley should see the lion’s share of RF in Boston.  [Note – for those who worry about Victorino, do not.  For those worried about Castillo – he has to get healthy and prove he can hit in the bigs consistently.  Of course, even if Castillo comes up, Hanley must stay healthy for it to matter to Bradley owners.  In other words, not a lot to worry about right now].

Nate Karns:  With the unfortunate injuries to both Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, Nate Karns is likely in the Rays rotation to stay.   Thus far this year, Karns has produced and filled the hole nicely with his 3.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 38K in 40 innings.  With his GB% and pfk% up and a big park in which to pitch, Karns should provide value in AL-only leagues and provide a good home streaming option in mixed leagues.

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “All throughout March, rotisserie baseball owners throughout the world studied web sites, perusing articles by roto-pundits and "fantasy journalists" that touted players to target and those to avoid. If all roto-owners heeded the experts, every draft and auction would be pretty boring with the collective wisdom prevailing as to draft position and auction value. Plus, roto-experts are absolutely terrible at predicting the future. The following are all true facts put up by players that were treated like the Ebola virus by the roto-punditry. If you used your own intellect and foresight to see this coming, you are likely trouncing those whose simply obeyed the siren song.

Dee Gordon is hitting .437 and the nearest in the majors and the nearest is .373. 

Mark Teixeira has 10 home runs and 25 RBIs. They are pretty much his only hits of the season

Andrew Miller has 13 saves.  He leagues the league.

Jeurys Familia 11 saves. He leads the National League

Stephen Vogt has 25 RBIs.  Devon Travis has 24.

D.J. Lemahieu is hitting .360

Your ERA leaders include: A.J. Burnett 1.66, Tim Lincecum 2.00 and Nick Martinez 1.47

Among the league leaders in WHIP: Mike Leake .87 and Dan Haren .92

It might be a safe assumption that none of the above is sustainable for an entire season. In fact, the successes of many (if not all) of these players may not even last throughout the month. If you want to truly cash in on the success of the surprisingly overperforming, don't become overly enamored. Rather, figure out a way to work your league and turn the April producers into those who will pile up the stats of the summer.”

Response:  Schultz is getting wise in his old age!

Final note:  Apologies for the late posting but hopefully there are some nuggets in here that will have made the wait worthwhile!