Ray's Ramblings

I have a lot to say, if you haven’t noticed yet. Sometimes my thoughts drift to the history of the universe. At other points, I’m thinking Bigfoot, bikinis, bellinis… and sometimes even baseball. In what follows I will do what I do best – ramble on and on in a stream of consciousness manner. Hopefully, you find it entertaining.

WHAT WENT RIGHT IN 2016?

*Italics/bold are quotes from last year’s Draft Guide.

The price has never been lower than it will be this season for Evan Longoria. That’s why I’m buying. He only hit 21 homers with 73 RBIs last season but he has played 160 games in 3-straight seasons while averaging 25 homers, 84 RBIs and 83 runs scored.

Longoria went out and hit 36 homers, a career best, with 98 RBI and 81 runs scored as he played another 160 games.

Ian Desmond will qualify at shortstop even if he’s playing left field for the Rangers. Given the sorry state of the position, that means he should be considered a top-10 play at the position despite all the warts we’ve discussed. There simply aren’t many standout options at the position this season.

Obviously was better than I thought, but if you took the advice and rostered him you got a huge return: .285-22-86-107-21.

Stop, breathe, and let Kevin Gausman do his thing… Huge arm, a big-time talent, who can still take the next step.

On June 21^st I wrote Patience Please about Gausman and showed how his career performance to that time was virtually identical to the efforts of Jake Arrieta, Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, John Lackey, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer through 344 or so innings. From the time the article appeared to the end of the season Gausman made 18 starts with nine wins, a 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, a 2.34 BB/9 rate and a 9.03 K/9 rate. Compare that to Jose Quintana’s season long ratios: 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.16 BB/9 and 7.83 K/9. #JustSaying

Bryce Harper is a first-round fantasy selection in 2016. Should he be the first overall selection? His talent and age suggest that if you were to take him first overall no one would bat an eye of disapproval. However, he has yet to prove that he can consistently stay on the field. It’s also rather obvious that he isn’t going to hit .330 year after year (he hadn’t hit .275 his first three seasons by the way) and it’s debatable at to whether his home run total will improve or not. And again, he isn’t stealing bases anymore. Not saying it’s wrong to take him first overall but I don’t think if you bypass him for another elite player that you would be wrong.

Harper went 24/21 with 86 RBI and 84 runs scored while batting .243. He went .330-42-99-118-6 in 2015. The most disappointing 20/20, 80/80 season of all-time?

Miguel Sano has massive power and knows how to take a walk. He also enters the season without a fantasy position and his batting average is in peril. If you could take a shot on him in the 15^th round I would be fine with that. Alas, the hype train is pushing Sano hard so the cost will be exorbitant in many leagues for a player with as many concerns as Sano possesses.

Sano dealt with injury limiting him to 116 games played, but note that his performance was well off his work as a rookie. Check out the numbers.

Spot on folks.

Giancarlo Stanton won’t be on any of my clubs. Too many injuries. He’s missed time with hamstring, quadriceps, abdominal, knee, shoulder, face and hand issues. For a 26 year old who looks like a Greek god that’s scary.

Stanton had an ADP of 10.1 in the NFBC last season. He appeared in 119 games hitting .240-27-74-56. Marcell Ozuna, his teammate in Florida, had an ADP of 213.3. Ozuna went .266-23-76-75. Check out Stanton’s Player Profile in the Draft Guide if you want to see me eviscerate the fraud that is Stanton.

The move to Camden Yards should allow Mark Trumbo to relax and blast homers. He’s a great mid-round target who has tons of power and one who qualifies at two spots (23 games at first and 89 games in the outfield in 2015).

He had the best season of his life going .256-47-108-94-2. The homers, RBI and runs were all career bests as was his .533 SLG.

Justin Upton is 28 years old. He’s already been in the bigs nine years. Since 2011 his average effort follows: .271-26-82-94-15. He’s not a superstar, but why folks are turned off by him has everything to do with expectations and little to do with reality.

It was a tale of two seasons as Upton was abysmal in the first half and sexy-pants hot in the second half. Add it all up and Upton went .246-31-87-81-9. Pretty much right on the average effort quoted above.

Adam Wainwright will be 35 in August. From 2009-14 he threw at least 198.2 innings every season. Last year he was limited to just seven games and 28 frames. He came back strong from his Achilles issue, but he’s at an age where we can’t simply be trusted to be the same old Waino.

Waino told us all, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, that we were all idiots for not thinking he would star in 2016. Listen to the interview linked to above with Kyle Elfrink. Sorry Adam, you were 100 percent wrong. You stunk. Over 33 starts you had a 4.62 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Those numbers are worse than league average. You had a 2.67 BB/9 which was an 8-year high. You had a 7.29 K/9 that was worse than your 7.57 career mark. Your 1.42 GB/FB ratio was worse than your 1.59 career mark. Sorry Adam, you stunk.

Fellas be careful. Olga Liashchuk of the Ukraine might have the strongest thighs on record.

WHAT WENT WRONG IN 2016?

*Italics/bold are quotes from last year’s Draft Guide.

I’m not completely sold on Nolan Arenado being the guy we saw in 2015. He has some holes in his game, performed at a level no one ever expected and played so far above his previously established levels that prudent folks have to call into question the efficacy of a repeat performance.

Arenado went .287-42-130-97 in 2015. He was slightly better in 2016 with a nearly identical line (.294-41-133-116). Couldn’t have been more wrong on this one. #EpicFail

Xander Bogaerts hit .320, posted 196 hits and is just 23-years-old. He also plays for the Red Sox. Get in line early if you want to buy a ticket to this show. He’s not going to post a .372 BABIP again. He hit 53 percent of his batted balls into the ground, meaning the 12 homers he hit two seasons ago might be the apex of his possible production in ‘16. If he doesn’t go 10/10, and is hitting let’s say .290, he just won’t stand out. Don’t pay for growth. Might even be smart to worry a bit about a full repeat.

I learned my lesson, as I describe below.

Andrew Cashner has a great arm and, of course, a fair home park to pitch in.

“Fear is the path to the dark side…fear leads to anger…anger leads to hate…hate leads to suffering.” – YODA  I hope I don’t go Vader on folks cause I am now fearful of Cashner, and I do hate him. Will never be on my team again. Sorry folks.

Nelson Cruz will be 36, doesn’t run anymore and is not a .300 hitter. No way. Regression in all five fantasy categories is likely to occur in 2016. Nope, not buying even after 2-straight impressive seasons.

Somehow a 34-35-36 year old Nelson figured out how to stay healthy. After nine years of being a solid performer he’s taken off at ages 34-35-36. Just remarkable. He’s a total outlier, and I’ve been wrong about him three consecutive seasons. I’ll probably be wrong about him in 2017 as well.

Corey Dickerson will be ignored by some after he failed to live up to expectations last season as injuries limited him to 65 games played... The only appreciable loss for Dickerson in 2015 when compared to 2014 is the fact that his walk rate fell from 7.7 to 4.3 percent... Note that in 2014 he went .312-24-76-74-8. He may not run much because of the foot woes from last season, but the soon to be 27 year old should hit, and hit a lot.

Dickerson had 24 homers and 76 RBI in 2014. He had 24 homers and 70 RBI in 2016 so I was totally right. Wink, wink. I was pretty much ass backwards wrong. Dickerson hit just .245, a career worst. He had a .293 OBP, a career worst. He had a .761 OPS, a career worst. Whoops. He was simply awful on Tampa Bay, way worse than I thought he would be leaving Coors Field.

Many will expect Odubel Herrera to improve on last season. That’s highly unlikely. It’s also dubious that he will be able to full repeat his overall game in 2016 meaning he had better up his steal total substantially, which is unlikely, or he’s likely to disappoint a whole lot of owners. 

I was wrong. True story. Still, I wasn’t that far off. Was I? He had a .297/.344/.418 line in 2015. The marks were .286/.361/.420 in 2016. He had a .333 wOBA in 2015. The mark was .338 in 2016. He drove in 41 runs in 2015. He drove in 49 last year. He did double his homer total from eight to 15 and added 23 runs to reach 87 in 2016. I was wrong, but not by that much.

Francisco Lindor will be successful in 2016. Alas, he will be drafted by most as if he’s a fantasy star. He’s not. It’s highly probable that his batting average will fall, ditto his homer pace (there will be zero growth in either category). Book it. If he sticks in the No. 2 hole in the order, he hit there 85 times last season, then he should get on base enough to be a strong middle infield option in runs scored and steals. Really, though, it’s all about cost with Lindor. If you have to pay full value you should pass. Lindor is not a top-five play at shortstop.

The entire baseball scouting community missed on Lindor in his rookie season. He wasn’t ready to star with the bat, though his glove was magical. The glove was stupendous but he also hit .313 with 12 homers and 12 steals. Many moved on and predicted similar success in 2016. I didn’t. I was wrong as Lindor went .301-15-78-99-19. He was one steal, two RBI and one run from a .300-15-80-100-20 effort. A hell of a young player is Lindor.

Kendrys Morales has one season in his career with 24 homers. He has one season of more than 80 RBIs in five years. He’s a career .275 batter with a .331 OBP. Don’t overpay for the 106 RBIs especially since he’s only going to be utility eligible (nine games at first base).

I looked right for a couple of months. Then July happened and Morales went .402-5-18. In the end he appeared in 154 games with 30 homers and 93 RBI. That’s impressive. He still lost .027 points in batting average falling to .263, and his on-base percentage fell from .362 in 2015 to .327 in 2016. Wrong, but again, a degree of it.

Drew Smyly, let’s just say I’m a fan… My only real concern is his health. 

Smyly had a 8.57 K/9 and 2.52 BB/9 last season. Like it. For his career he owns a 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP while pitching in the American League. Like that. Alas, he was a mess last season. He stayed healthy making 30-starts while reaching a career best 175.1 innings, but his performance was dreadful in many respects. The biggest culprit was the fly ball and the resulting homers. He continued to allow too many flies, his 49.3 percent fly ball rate was a career worst, and the result was an ungodly 1.64 HR/9 mark, a career worst and the fourth worst in baseball. I was wrong about his performance and his health. I’m usually better than this. I’ll be better in 2017 though I will still keep my eye on Smyly. #NeverLearnMyLesson

 I say it all the time, or at least I try to, give me strikeouts, grounders and no walks.

I like superheroes. I like drinking. Put them together and you get a list of boozing superheroes.

NUMBERS, NUMBERS, NUMBERS

.408: The second half batting average of Joey Votto, the best in baseball. Votto became the first batter to hit .400 in the second half since Ichiro Suzuki in 2004 (minimum 200 plate appearances). Votto also hit .400 over his final 290 at-bats. Over his last 84 games Votto hit .394 with 18 homers, 61 RBI, 61 runs scored and a 1.145 OPS.

0.72: The WHIP of Clayton Kershaw in 2016. It’s not the lowest ever since he only threw 149 innings, 13 short of qualifying for the ERA title. Still, the mark is the lowest in the history of baseball for a man who tossed 100-innings in a season.

1: The number of players in big league history to have 140 homers and 140 steals through their age 24 season. That man is Mike Trout.

2: The number of men who hit 35 homers with 85 runs batted in and 100 RBI in each of the last two seasons. Those men are Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado. Speaking of Machado, it’s hard to argue he’s not a first-round option in 2017 given that he played 114 games at third and 45 at shortstop. What positional flexibility. Machado has also posted an OPS of .861 and .876 the last two seasons showing stability. Machado turned 24 in July last season and is still extremely young. In fact, the following list of players are older than Machado: Willson Contreras, Aaron Judge, Joc Pederson, Blake Swihart, Nick Castellanos, Hunter Renfroe and Kris Bryant. The real head scratcher are the steals though. After swiping 10 bases his first three years, Machado went wild and stole 20 bags in 2015 leading to a 35/20 season. Sky high hopes heading into 2016 of course, and he rewarded those who spent a first-round selection on him with a zero-theft campaign. Zero. I would try to explain it, but it would hurt my brain.

2: Times in five big league seasons that Yoenis Cespedes has appeared in 136 games. In five big league seasons, he’s averaged 141 games played.

2: Times in six season that Giancarlo Stanton has appeared in 125 games. He hasn’t appeared in 125 games either of the last two seasons. In the last six big league seasons, he’s averaged 121 games played.

3: The number of consecutive seasons in which Nelson Cruz has gone deep 40 times with 93 or more RBI. Before that run he had never had back-to-back 90 RBI seasons or back-to-back seasons of 25 homers.

3: The number of positions that Javier Baez appeared in at least 25 games in 2016 (second base, third base and shortstop). The last player to appear at 25 games at all three of those spots while hitting 10 homers and stealing 10 bases was Frankie Frisch in 1925 before Baez went 14/12 for the Cubs.

3: Years in a row in which Dellin Betances has posted at least 125-strikeouts. He’s thrown 90 or fewer innings in each season. Betances is the only pitcher in big league history to pull off the trick twice and he’s done it three times in a row. Betances total of 126 punchouts in 2016 was one more than Mike Leake, eight more than Josh Tomlin and 11 more than Doug Fister.

4: The number of hurlers who have had 40-saves in a season without a blown effort – Eric Gagne in 2003, Brad Lidge in 2008, Jose Valverde in 2011 and Zach Britton in 2016 (he was 47-for-47). Britton had a 0.54 ERA on the season, the lowest amongst the 489 pitchers who have recorded 30 saves in a season. That ERA was also the best in league history for a fella who threw 50-innings.

5: The number of right-handed batters who have posted a .500 SLG in 13-straight seasons. Here is the list: Jimmie Foxx, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera.

13.0: The hard hit ball rate of Rich Hill and Clayton Kershaw last year, the best in baseball. Three others in the top-10 that just don’t seem to fit there: Ubaldo Jimenez (13.3), Steven Wright (13.3) and Eduardo Rodriguez (13.1).

If you care about someone, give them a hug.

14: The number of men who swiped 30-bases last season. One man had less than 300 at-bats in Jarrod Dyson (30 steals, 299 ABs). Three others didn’t reach 340 at-bats: Travis Jankowski (30, 335), Dee Gordon (30, 325), Trea Turner (33, 307). Speaking of steals… did you notice that George Springer stole nine bases last season while being caught 10 times. That’s atrocious and it continues his trend of being a poor base stealer. Springer has stolen 30 bases in three seasons while being caught 16 time leading to a 65 percent success rate. If you are under 67 percent you are actually hurting your team’s ability to score runs. What happened to the guy who stole 32 bases in 128 games in 2012 and 45 times in 135 games in 2013 while in the minors? Where has that guy been?

15.64: The strikeout-to-walk ratio for Clayton Kershaw in 2016, the best in history for a pitcher who threw 145 innings in a season. That bested the previous record of 11.63 set in 2014 by Phil Hughes. Kershaw struck out 172 batters with 11 walks over 21 starts in 2016. It was also his third straight season with a K/BB ratio of at least 7.15. Kershaw is he first pitcher ever, minimum 145 innings a season, to post 3-consecutive seasons at that level. Folks, he walked 11 batters in 21 starts last season. Just remarkable. The modern-day record for BB/9 is Carlos Silva at 0.43 in 2005, just slightly ahead of the 0.66 mark Kershaw posted (Silva’s mark was the best since 1880 as he walked nine batters in 188.1 innings).

19.8: The league leading hard hit ball rate of the since retired David Ortiz, a tenth ahead of Jake Lamb and Victor Martinez in ‘16. Amazingly, Billy Butler was 6^th in baseball last season, Tommy Joseph 12^th and Sean Rodriguez 14^th.

32: The stolen base total of Paul Goldschmidt in 2016 to make him the first player to steal 30 bases while playing first base since Jeff Bagwell in 1999. The last two seasons Goldschmidt has swiped 32 and 21 bases. Since 1950 the only two first baseman with more 21 theft seasons are Bagwell (three) and Rod Carew (four). Bagwell, Goldschmidt and Ryan Klesko are the only first basemen ever with two seasons of 20/20 (Bagwell accomplished the feat three times).

216: The hit total of Jose Altuve in 2016. No player in big league history has ever had more hits in a season of 20 homers and 30 steals (Alex Rodriguez had 213 hits in 1998).

Having a hard time understanding which balls I’m a bigger fan of. Fresh Balls or Buzz Balls?

DID YOU KNOW?

We think we’re standing still, but we are not. You’re spinning at around 1,000 miles per hour on earth if you’re located near the equator.

Do folks realize that Charlie Blackmon was one homer and three steals from a .320-30-80-110-20 season?

Do folks realize that Ryan Braun was four steals from a .300-30-90-80-20 season? Braun also had a .903 OPS which was better than the .897 mark of Mookie Betts. Wasn’t Braun supposed to be washed up?

A reality check. Not only is Madison Bumgarner the second active pitcher with 100 victories by his age 26 season – CC Sabathia is the other – MadBum is actually younger than Matt Harvey, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly, Chris Sale, Michael Pineda, Dallas Keuchel, Aroldis Chapman, Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Archer, James Paxton, Drew Pomeranz, Dan Straily and Rick Porcello.

In the month of September, a span of 29 games, Byron Buxton hit .287/.357/.653 with a .413 wOBA. He also went deep nine times, drove in 22 runners and scored 24 times. Certainly, been a flawed player has Buxton but in 469 plate appearances he’s hit 12 homers, stolen 12 bases and scored 60 runs. Over his first 469 big league plate appearances Mookie Betts had 10 homers, 17 steals and 58 runs scored. #JustSayin

Every year I say simply, if you want to wait on a shortstop just take Asdrubal Cabrera in the 27^th round. Last year Cabrera went .280-23-62-65-5. The following shortstop eligible players didn’t match those five numbers: Brandon Crawford, Carlos Correa, Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Miller, Eugenio Suarez, Marcus Semien and Addison Russell. Speaking of Semien, he hit a career high 27 homers after slashing 21 the previous two seasons. He also stole 10 bases. That’s two years in a row with 15 homers, 10 steals and 65 runs scored. Semien is the only shortstop in baseball who has done that.

Chris Carter became the third player since 1920 to lead the NL in homers in his first season in the league (he tied with Nolan Arenado with 41). Previously Jim Thome in 2003 and Ralph Kiner in 1946 pulled off the trick.

Brian Dozier led baseball with a 56.4 percent pull rate. That number was actually lower than the 60.2 percent rate he posted in 2015. The number two man in baseball was Carlos Santana at 52.9 percent. That mark was actually lower than his career mark of 53.2 percent. Third was Jose Bautista at 52.8 percent, a seventh straight season over 50 percent.

Michael Fulmer had a 1.119 WHIP, the 11^th lowest by a rookie hurler who has made 25 starts since 1920. Over his last seven starts the number skyrocketed to 1.44.

Ian Kennedy has 184 strikeouts, one more than Stephen Strasburg. Kennedy has 174 strikeouts each of the last three seasons. He is one of 10 hurlers in that group. Kennedy has 160 strikeouts in 7-straight seasons. He is one of only seven hurlers in that group. Strasburg has 180 strikeouts in 4-of-5 seasons. He’s also failed to pitch 150-innings in consecutive seasons while failing to last 160 innings in 3-of-5 efforts. Strasburg’s just not worth the risk given the cost. Period.

Tyler Naquin finished third in AL ROY voting. Were you aware that he posted a .514 SLG as a rookie centerfielder, the third best mark by a rookie centerfielder who has appeared in 100 games since the 1947 season? The only two rookies who posted higher numbers were Fred Lynn and Mike Trout. Tyler’s not going to reach that mark again in ‘17. Pretty unlikely, nah impossible, that he will repeat his .411 BABIP and 22.2 HR/FB ratio.

What does Jose Quintana have in common with Madison Bumgarner and Max Scherzer? Those are the only three hurlers in baseball who have thrown at least 200-innings with an ERA under 3.55 in each of the last four seasons.

Hanley Ramirez went 30-100 in 2016. The following men didn’t: Will Myers, Ryan Braun, George Springer, Joey Votto, Brian Dozier, Todd Frazier, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson…

Jeff Samardzija has thrown at least 200-innings with 163 strikeouts the last four seasons. Only five others can match that: Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Max Scherzer.

A year after hitting a career best 41 homers Mike Trout dipped all the way down to 29 homers. No one has even noticed though since Trout stole 30 bases in ’16 after swiping 27 bases in 2014 (16) and 2015 (11).

Justin Verlander needs to be started in all interleague games. Verlander is 27-5 in interleague games giving him a .844 winning percentage, the highest mark in history (minimum 15 starts).

I WANT IN 2017

Bill James, called by man the Father of Sabermetrics, wrote a book about serial killers. Did you know that? It’s a very entertaining read.

I learned my lesson… Xander Bogaerts hit .253 with a .729 OPS in the second half. He still hit .294 with a .802 OPS in his age 23 season. He also went 20/10 with 89 RBI and 115 runs scores. That’s pretty good, ain’t it?

Robinson Cano went .298-39-103-107 last year for the Mariners in 161 games. Per 162 games, for his career, his average fantasy effort has been .307-34-95-93. By the way, Cano has appeared in at least 156 games every season since 2007. Cano and Adrian Gonzalez are the only players in baseball to have appeared in 156 games in 10-straight seasons. Speaking of AGone, he wasn’t his normal self but he reach 90 RBI for the 10^th straight season. He is the only player in the game who has done that.

Starlin Castro is viewed as if he’s just a guy, and I get it. Still, he had a .270 average, 21 homers, 70 RBI and 63 runs scored last season. The following list of second sackers didn’t match that effort last season: Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, Devon Travis, D.J. LeMahieu etc. Castro doesn’t turn 27 until late March. There are no expectations and little cost associated with Castro in 2017.

Freddie Freeman led baseball with a 29.1 percent line drive rate. The league average is usually about 20 percent. Normally when I would see a mark of 29.1 percent I would flip out and warn the world that a serious regression to the mean was going to destroy the players value in the coming season. Not so much with Freeman. Players do establish their own baselines in this category – some guys are at 18 percent each season, some guys at 23 percent – and Freeman has established himself as the elite line drive bat in the game. The 29.1 percent mark of Freeman last year isn’t even a career best as he was at an unearthly 31.0 percent rate in 2014. Some regression is coming for Freeman who owns a 27.2 percent career mark, but the lefty slugger has posted a mark of 26.0 percent in each of the past five seasons. He’s just one hell of a hitter who hits the ball hard on an extremely consistent basis.

I’M AVOIDING IN 2017

Over the last two years 127 people died while taking selfies. Be careful if you’re in India as 76 of those deaths occurred in that country.

Jackie Bradley Jr. had a heck of a season given the expectations as he went .267-26-87-94-9. However, let’s look a bit deeper. Bradley had a .673 OPS against lefties. He hit .234 on the road. He hit .237 during the day. He had a .557 OPS on fake grass. He hit .136 in domes. How about this? In the first half his OPS was .926. In the second half the mark was .728. He is as up and down as any player in baseball. Zero month to month consistency from him, year after year.

Danny Espinosa went 21/17 in 2011. In 2012 he went 17/20. That’s nearly back-to-back 20/20 efforts you will note. He disappeared from 2013-15. He reemerged in 2016. He only stole nine bases but he also hit a career best 24 homers with a career-high of 72 runs batted in. He also hit .209, a third time in four years he’s been under .220 so he is clearly a very moderate fantasy performer who simply tries to hit the big fly.

Jason Hammel won 15 games with a 1.21 WHIP. He’s a solid arm to round out a staff but nothing more. Why? Because he cannot make a full season of starts. Can’t. It never happens. Each of the last eight seasons he’s failed to reach 180-innings every single time. He can’t last. Even when he does pitch in the second half he stinks. Look at the drastic difference in his career numbers: 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP prior to the All-Star game and 5.06 ERA and 1.45 WHIP post All-Star break.

Live it up. We’ve only got 1,000 years to live.

Jeremy Hellickson posted a 1.15 WHIP last season, the same mark as Noah Syndergaard and a tenth better than Jose Quintana. That make sense? Nope. How about Danny Duffy with a 1.14 WHIP which was better than Hellickson and Syndergaard? Or how about all of them being bettered by Marco Estrada? Strange things happen every year. 

Adam Jones is never on my team. I just hate his approach, the guy has never walked 40 times in a season, and he’s gone from being a double-digit steal guy to a fella who has swiped 12 bases the last three years. He started off last season horrible and many though the end was approaching. In the end, after 152 outings, he was the same guy he always is with 29 homers, 83 RBI and 86 runs scored. (1) He has hit 25 homers in 6-straight years. (2) He has driven in 82 runners in 6-straight seasons. (3) He has scored 74 times in 5-straight seasons and in 7-of-8. The lone negative at this point is that after hitting between .280 and .287 for 5-straight seasons he’s failed to hit .270 the last two years. Stable, slightly boring, always productive, but that approach still scares me as his skills start to slip.

I didn’t get it in-season, and I still don’t know. Michael Saunders went .253-24-57-70-1. Why do you care? Why did anyone ever bother asking me about him? He was always going to be just a guy, don’t care how hot he was for a month. Corey Dickerson, who everyone hates, went .245-24-70-57-0. Why does everyone hate Dickerson but support Saunders? Draft day cost I would assume?

Ryan Schimpf had 20 homers and 17 doubles in 2016. He had only 18 singles. Schimpf had an insane 0.30 GB/FB ratio as he had a 64 percent fly ball rate. If he replicates that in 2017 he will not match the pathetic .217 batting average he posted last season. He also struck out 105 times in 276 at-bats, just awful.