There's something for everyone in this piece. Hot ladies. A boy every mom wants their daughter to marry. Ants. Flippers. A look back at 2014. A look forward to 2015 with players I want and those I'm running away from. It's all random. Meander, Ray Flowers... meander.
PLAYERS I DESIRE AS MUCH AS A DATE WITH KATE BECKINSALE
Let's just say that I'm extremely fond of Kate. An awful lot. Like I might cut off half my pinkie finger (on my left hand, of course) to get a date with her if she were to get divorced (I've had too many angry husbands chase me out the window and through backyards for me to want to deal with that again).
Some guys I really, really, really like... but still not as much as Kate. I only have eyes for you, Kate.
Alex Cobb the last 49 starts: 21-12, 2.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.22 K/9, 3.08 K/BB with a 56 percent ground ball rate.
Lance Lynn has won 15 games with at least 180 strikeouts the last three years. The only other arm in baseball to accomplish that is Mr. Heterochromia, Max Scherzer. Lynn isn't as good as Max and it's a bit concerning that his K/9 rate dropped to 8.00 last season (it was 9.01 in 2012-13), but Lynn is stable and consistent and that's harder to find than you would think on the hill. Oh, and you won't have to overpay for his services, which is key.
Wil Myers was a Minor League Player of the Year. He hit .293 with 13 homers and 53 RBIs as a rookie (88 games). He hit .222-6-35 in his second season of 2014 (87 games). People have moved on. You shouldn't. Take a look at his overall numbers in 175 games and realize that's about what you should expect from him in 2015: .258-19-88-87-11. He could do better, even in San Diego.
Hunter Pence. He's a Giant and I love the hair. And he rides a scooter. And his girlfriend is hot. And he's a Giant.
Kyle Seager the last three years: .262-22-84-71-10. Don't know if that's worth $100 million, but he's a rock in the fantasy game.
By the way, heterochromia is the medical term for someone who has two different colored irises - the colored part of your eye.
Justin Upton appears destined to fall short of the expectations that were placed on his shoulders when he was drafted first overall in 2005. He doesn't run much any more, 16 steals the last two seasons after 4-straight efforts of at least 18, but the guy is productive. Since 2009, an average Upton season includes .279 average, 25 homers, 80 RBIs and 90 runs. Who doesn't want that on their squad?
Ben Zobrist's price is dropping as his overall performance dips. Still, were you aware that he had gone 10/10 for 6-straight years? Unimpressed? Do you know how many guys have gone 10/10 the past six years? Try three: Hanley Ramirez, Andrew McCutchen and Zobrist. Ben also qualifies at second (79 games), shortstop (31 games) and outfield (64 games). Yes, I know that is more than 162 games. That's the number of games he appeared at each spot. If you want just the starts: 74 2B, 23 SS, 40 OF. Cheap, solid, productive.
PLAYERS I HAVE LESS INTEREST IN THAN LIVER AND ONIONS
I hate liver and onions. I think most do, unless they are over 70 years old, but I really detest the duo. In fact, if I had to eat an entire plate for dinner to ensure that I would get a date with Kate Beckinsale, I wouldn't do it—that's the level of distaste I have for the duo. Oh, who am I kidding, if Kate agreed to go out with me I would totally eat liver and onions, puke, and then head out on the date. Do I sound like a stalker?
Jose Abreu won't be on any of my clubs. That 46 percent ground ball rate, 27 percent HR/F ratio and 36 non-intentional walks speak to my concerns. See his Player Profile for more on the slugger.
Jose Altuve added 65 percent in the steals column. Added 20 percent in batting average. Those just aren't sustainable paces. BABIP went up more than .040 points too and he doesn't walk—just 36. Too expensive for my tastes. See his Player Profile for more on the speedster.
Adrian Beltre is aging (36 in April) and his performance dipped last season (19 HR, 77 RBIs). Still solid, but many will overpay.
Clay Buchholz is terrible. Can you please just admit it? I've only been telling you that for four years.
Yu Darvish makes me very nervous. Doesn't it seem like he's always hurt? In 2014, he dealt with the following issues: ongoing neck issues that bothered him for months, a head issue after being hit in batting practice and elbow inflammation that ended his season. If I'm investing in an elite arm, I need it to be on a guy who doesn't have ongoing health concerns.
Scott Kazmir must have made a deal with a crossroads demon. After throwing 159.2 innings from 2011 to 2013, he managed to throw 190.1 in 2014, his highest total since 2007. He lopped nearly a batter and a half off his career walk rate —down to 2.36 per nine—while at the same time posting a 7.75 K/9 ratio, which is a batter below his career level. Hopefully the second half fade will warn you away: 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 6.90 K/9.
Victor Martinez hit .335 with 32 homers and 103 RBIs, his best-ever season at 35 years old. He played 35 games at first, so he's not just a DH in '15, but be wary. He hit more homers than his previous two seasons (26), and the previous three years his HR/F ratio was under 11 percent. Last year it was 16 percent. It's also nearly impossible to hit .335 and have your BABIP be lower than your batting average. It was .316, right on his career mark. He's a .306 career hitter, by the way.
NOT WORTH WHAT THEY ONCE WERE
Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana both lose catcher eligibility for 2015. Mauer qualifies at first. Santana qualifies at first (94 games) and third (26 games).
There's a woman named Julia Gunthel who burst three balloons in 12 seconds to set a world record. So what? Well, she did it by bending, backwards, and crushing the balloons with her back against her thighs. Confused? Visual proof.
WHO KNEW?
We all know that Buster Posey is America's Sweetheart. I mean, seriously, what mother wouldn't want their kid dating Buster Posey? Sorry, he's married, ladies. Why did I bring him up? Posey's the rare player, and the extremely rare catcher, who hits better in the second half. For his career...
1st half: .302/.368/.473
2nd half: .316/.382/.504
Christopher Irmscher ran the 100-yard dash in 14.82 seconds. Slow, right? He did it while wearing swim fins, you know, the kind you use when you go scuba diving. It's a world record.
WHAT WERE WE RIGHT ABOUT LAST YEAR?
Let's take a look back to 2014 and pull out some "calls" that were made in in the 2014 Baseball Draft Guide. Were there some misses? Absolutely, but "hits" were prevalent as well.
*** Italics are from last year's Guide.
I wrote a couple thousand words in last year's Guide about Chris Davis and how he would fail to match the hype. Who is Chris Davis? He’s the new Adam Dunn... What that means is that you should be very leery of building your fantasy squad around Davis who is a flawed fantasy player. The counting categories will be strong, but a league average batting mark and virtually non-existent stolen base speed, render his fantasy outlook much less appealing than many people will lead you to believe. Davis was an utter failure before being suspended late in the year for amphetamine use. He hit .196 with 26 homers, 72 RBIs and 65 runs scored. He went .286-53-138-108 in 2013.
Pitchers to Target included: Ervin Santana, Doug Fister, Andrew Cashner. All were useful starters and exceeded their draft day cost.
Ants make up 15 percent of the biomass of terrestrial animals on Earth. Ants.
Find players that are 26 or younger, players who have failed to truly make their mark in the big leagues. Look at their plate appearance total from the previous two seasons. See if we might be able to find some guys that have accrued 500 or more plate appearances in the two years. We tabbed the following: Dustin Ackley, A.J. Pollock, Leonys Martin, Derek Norris, Devin Mesoraco, and J.D. Martinez.
When we look deeper, we see that [Anthony Rizzo] is taking a lot more pitches and his OBP was higher in relation to batting average in 2013. Additionally, he had a similar contact rate, but his BABIP was .053 points lower. He will hit .275 with 30 bombs and more than 85 runs batted in. Invest in Rizzo. He hit .286 with 32 homers and 78 RBIs. He only played 140 games or he would have hit the RBI total as well.
AVERAGE BASES ALLOWED (ABA) pointed you to the following arms before they "broke out" in 2014: Jose Quintana, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Tanner Roark, Tony Watson and Sonny Gray.
SWIP pointed you to the following arms before they "broke out" in 2014: Corey Kluber, David Robertson and Jake McGee. Some relievers we noted in the Middle Relievers You Should Know column:
Jean Machi is almost certainly a name you’ve never come across... his numbers suggest he should be someone you add to your watch list. Machi won seven games with a 2.58 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, two saves and 17 holds over 66.1 innings.
Sean Doolittle is a converted hitter who, literally, has been a pitcher for two years. Through 114 outings in the bigs he has better than a K per inning with nary a walk leading to a 5.00 K/BB ratio. He’s no better than third in line for saves in Oakland but this is a significant arm. Doolittle saved 22 games, posted a 2.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP as he struck out 12.78 batters per nine with an insane 11.13 K/BB ratio.
In 10 Burning Questions, we addressed the most topical players at each position. A smattering of those reports follow.
Will Salvador Perez “break out” in 2014? NO. I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding as to what Perez is... it’s pretty clear that even a 20 homer effort is unlikely. Perez hit 17 homers but saw his average slump to .260 while he lost seven RBIs from 2013 (he finished with 70 RBIs).
Albert Pujols had a miserable 2013. Can he return to prominence in 2014? I’d be targeting his 2012 season as to where your expectations should be placed (he hit .285 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored back in ’12). Pujols hit .272 with 28 homers, 105 RBIs and 89 runs scored. Did someone say “nailed it”?
Jedd Gyorko will be a top-10 second sacker in 2014, right? MAYBE. I fear the young player hype will drive Gyorko's price tag pretty high on draft day so tread with caution before you blindly tab him as your starter at second. Injured and limited to 111 games, Gyorko regressed in every way imaginable on his way to a dreadful letdown effort (.210-10-51-37 in 400 ABs).
Will Adrian Beltre finally slow down in 2014? YES. Beltre hit an impressive .324, but the rest of his line didn't impress. His total of 10 homers was his worst full-season mark since 2005. For the first time in five seasons, he failed to record 92 RBIs. He had 77. He scored 79 runs, the first time in five years he didn't score 80.
Will Andrelton Simmons take his offensive game to the next level? NO. If the Braves were smart they would consider dropping him in the order... don’t get into a bidding war. He lost 10 homers (he hit seven). His average fell four points to .244. He drove in 13 fewer runs (46). He scored 32 fewer times (44).
Will Billy Hamilton steal 75 bases to meet expectations? NO. Hamilton hasn’t proven he can hit (he batted .256 at Triple-A last season with a .308 OBP). Hamilton stole 53 bases, hit .250 and had a .292 OBP.
Will Jim Johnson continue to excel with the Athletics? NO. Jim Johnson leads baseball with 101 saves the past two seasons... Johnson may not have as long a leash as some would lead you to believe. He failed with the Athletics and Tigers. After those back-to-back 50 save efforts, he saved two games and had a 7.09 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over 53.1 innings.
Good luck finding another publication that was as high on Corey Kluber and Tyson Ross. We had them ranked 33rd and 54th on Opening Day.
WHERE DID WE MISS LAST YEAR?
Nowhere, of course. Well...
Tim Lincecum would be decent. Yeah, I wrote that. "What I’m saying is this: Lincecum is worth drafting this season based upon his cost... At that cost a potential 15-win, 200 K hurler is well worth taking the plunge on." Oops.
We also missed on Prince Fielder and Joey Votto. Who didn't?
On the bump guys like Shelby Miller, C.J. Wilson, Danny Salazar let us down. Hey, it happens. Even the Oracle isn't perfect.
TAKE A FLYER ON
In alphabetical order...
Hitters: Allen Craig, Stephen Drew, Brad Miller, Jordy Mercer, Mike Zunino.
Pitchers: Anthony DeScalfani, Robbie Erlin, T.J. House, Justin Masterson, Wade Miley.
Finally...
The Mets have moved their fences in a bit. If the new measurements were in place last season, Curtis Granderson would have hit nine more homers. Here they are: July 11th Henderson Alvarez, May 22nd Zack Greinke, August 16th Dan Straily, April 4th Mike Leake, July 4th Yu Darvish, August 8th Jake Peavy, May 22nd Chris Perez, September 9th Christian Bergman, September 14th Tyler Clippard. Granderson hit 20 homers last season.