.jpg)
.jpg)
ONE MORE TIME
Following up on my Trea Turner Projections Article, I wanted to draw one more parallel for folks, though I know it won’t have the impact it should.
In 2016 we had the case of Carlos Correa. Here is how he lines up with Trea Turner in 2017.
AGE: Correa (22 yrs, 5 months), Turner (23 yrs, 7 months)
* Current ages
PROSPECT RANKINGS (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com): Correa (4, 3, 3), Turner (9, 13, 11)
ADP (NFBC): Correa (6.8), Turner (10.5)
Big league games heading into season: Correa (99), Turner (27)
RESULTS: Correa was a first round pick last season in fantasy, just like Turner this year. Both players have middle infield eligibility. Both were elite prospects. Correa had a massive games played advantage in heading into his season. The results for Correa in ’16 were...
Horribly disappointing to most.
Correa went .274-20-96-76-13 last season. That’s an impressive season for any shortstop option. It’s otherworldly for a player who was just 21 coming into a season with less than 100 games of big league experience. Still, the expectations were so high with Correa last year that his effort was universally looked at as a failure. That’s an incorrect position of course, but it’s how those that owned Correa viewed him last season. In their minds, anything shot of a 30/20 season with 100 runs and 100 RBI was going to be viewed as a failure. As I pointed out in the article on Turner, the expectations are similarly high for the Nationals youngster.
I fear the same fate will befall Trea Turner in 2017 as did Correa in 2016.
SCHWARBER BATTING LEADOFF?
Who doesn’t think that a guy with 71 games of big league experience, who weighs 235 lbs. on a six foot frame, is an ideal leadoff man?
Sounds like the Cubs could use Kyle Schwarber as their leadoff man, this according to manager Joe Maddon. Obviously, Maddon doesn’t want him to run. He wants him to play his game perhaps modeling it after Brian Downing who was a 20-homer hitter who owned a .370 career OBP in more than 2,300 big-league games. Maddon also went on to say that the club “will be careful with Schwarber playing time so don't aggravate left knee. If he sits, Zobrist can leadoff.”
I don’t agree with this call, to bat Schwarber leadoff, but I’m also not a World Series winning manager either. This news is good for the runs scored outlook for Schwarber (duh), but it is a big negative for his RBI outlook. Regardless your position with Schwarber, you have to be a bit concerned to hear that the plan sounds like resting the slugger periodically is in the cards.
The hero we need right now.
THIS AND THAT
Is Miguel Cabrera a #2 hitter? He’s hit second twice in 2,096 career games. Well, the Tigers don’t have a lock on their #2 spot as of yet, so manager Brad Ausmus said that batting Miggy second "crossed his mind” but that he hasn’t seriously considered making the move. "I know the theories behind hitting your best hitter second. But I don't know if it applies if your best hitter's not really a runner." Another option is Nick Castellanos who wants to hit there. As I pointed out in his recent Player Profile, Castellanos has a poor contact rate but he hits the ball very hard. He doesn’t have the profile of a traditional #2 hitter, not at all. Whoever hits second in front of Miggy will end up being in a good spot, but having two plodding runners in the 2-3 holes, when the #2 guy doesn’t have the profile of a contact hitter, sounds like a bad idea to this writer.
Francisco Cervelli has been cleared to return to “modified” baseball activities. Cervelli injured his foot over the weekend, and though no one thinks it’s a big deal, you never want to see a catcher dealing with any injury this early in camp. Note that Cervelli only appeared in 101 games last season and should be viewed as less than full-time catcher when compared to other higher end backstops. He has been mighty impressive in one category though: on-base percentage. In each of the last four seasons his OBP has been between .370-.377. Remarkable consistency.
I no longer like Iceland.
Felix Hernandez threw a batting practice session Wednesday. Here’s how he looked. Reports were positive.
Hunter Pence has a minor oblique issue. The Giants have been cautious to make sure he’s fine, and it sounds like he should be ready to play Friday in the Cactus League opener. Pence has failed to appear in 110 games the last two seasons, and is turning 34 in April, but if I can grab him as my fourth outfielder in mixed leagues... sign me up.
There was a report that Carlos Santana was going to see some time in the outfield this spring. Terry Francona said that the team has no plans to use Santana at the outfield spot this spring. So much for that.T
Did you get your copy of the 2017 Fantasy Alarm MLB Draft Guide yet? No worries if you didn’t yet. There are multiple ways to pick up the “Living Guide” that will grow day-by-day. Find out how by clicking on the above link as we transition from fantasy football into fantasy baseball season.
Player News
Willi Castro (oblique) could return to the Twins’ lineup this weekend.
Castro has been sidelined with an oblique injury since April 16th and was finally placed on the IL late last week. He has been swinging the bat right-handed and plans to swing left-handed on Tuesday. If his body responds well to that, the Twins could bring him back for this weekend’s series against Boston, which could cut into the playing time for Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien.
Royce Lewis (hamstring) will play 10 innings in a doubleheader on Tuesday and could return to Minnesota on May 6th.
Lewis will play 10 innings as the team’s designated hitter during a doubleheader for Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday and then play a full game at third base on Wednesday, assuming Tuesday goes well. Even though that could mean Lewis returns this weekend, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes suggests “it’s likelier Lewis will play several more games over the weekend and return when the Twins open a homestand on May 6.”
Matt Wallner (hamstring) just started jogging on the treadmill on Monday.
Wallner has been out with a Grade 3 hamstring strain since April 15th. He has yet to swing a bat and will be re-evaluated by the Twins when they return home next week. We won’t have a firm timeline for Wallner’s return until he starts swinging, but it sounds like there’s a chance we don’t see him back until late May or early June.
Twins trainer Nick Paparesta said Luke Keaschall (forearm) will rest and won’t be re-evaluated “for at least a month.”
Keaschall suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right forearm, which halted his impressive MLB debut. The injury won’t require surgery, but the Twins will take time to allow it to heal on its own. “It’s probably going to be a couple of months before he’s back into playing games,” Paparesta said. When he does come back, there’s no guarantee he slots right back into the Minnesota lineup, so we may not see Keaschall back in the big leagues until the end of the summer.
Shane Bieber (elbow) is set to throw simulated games in the Arizona Complex League.
Bieber has said that he’s feeling healthy but is being deliberate in his rehab to ensure that he doesn’t come back too soon. The veteran’s target date had always been sometime around the All-Star break, so this would keep him on schedule. After Bieber throws simulated games, he would likely make a few rehab starts before returning to Cleveland. If all goes well, he could be back by the end of June.
Tony Gonsolin (back) will return from the injured list and start for the Dodgers on Wednesday against the Marlins.
Gonsolin missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was then sidelined by a back injury in spring after just three innings. The 30-year-old had a great season in 2022 and has been a solid starter for the Dodgers over his career. His lack of strikeouts limits his fantasy value a bit, but his velocity has been up in his rehab outings, so he could be worth a stash in deeper formats while he remains in the Dodgers’ rotation.