* I will only focus on players that will have an impact in 2016.
** All deals that involved closers can be found broken down in this edition of the Daily Trends column.
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Brewers Receive: OF Lewis Brinson, RHP Luis Ortiz
Rangers Receive: Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress
Brinson was a top-20 MLB prospect coming into the season. Many, in fact most, thought he was a better bet for stardom at the big league level than Nomar Mazara six months ago.
Lucroy will play daily for the Rangers. He’s worth a massive bid in AL-only leagues, and you can make an argument that he is now the top backstop in the American League. Lucroy was hit .299 with 13 homers and 50 RBI in 95 games with the Brewers. A career .284 batter, he also owns a solid .342 OBP for his career (.359 this season). Lucroy also has a .841 OPS, a number he nearly identically posted in 2014 (.837) and one he blew past in 2012 (.881). His .340 BABIP is a bit high, his career mark is .313, so that will likely dip a bit moving forward. It’s also possible, even with the move to an offensive environment in Texas, that his homer to fly ball rate will slip as well (the last two years the mark has been under eight percent, his career rate is 9.2 percent, and the mark is 12.9 percent this season). You can break it down anyway you like, but the fact is that Lucroy is one of the better hitting catchers in baseball and he enters a potentially impressive lineup with the Rangers.
Jeffress can be found in the DT piece noted above.
Mets Receive: Jay Bruce
Reds Receive: INF Dilson Herrera, LHP Max Wotell
Bruce will hope to form with Yoenis Cespedes one of the best lefty/righty power combos in the big leagues. Bruce, who has 80 RBI, became the first player to be leading his team in runs batted in to be dealt since the RBI became an official stat in 1920. Bruce is batting an unsustainable .360 with runners in scoring position and figures to boost the Mets who rank last in baseball in that category at .206. Bruce’s addition will mean that he and Cespedes play daily with Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson left to battle for work. "We've got to talk about it and come up with a plan," manager Terry Collins said. "It's not just based on offense. We've got to take a good look at what our best lineup is going to be." You can only trust two Mets’ outfielders now.
Bruce is batting .265 though he’s been under .230 the last two seasons (a key has been a reduced strikeout rate, down to the point that it’s a seven year best). He has 25 homers, the sixth time in seven seasons that he has reached that mark. He’s also driven in those previously mentioned 80 runners, the fifth time in six years he’s hit that mark. Note that his 20.8 percent HR/FB rate is a career best, and that the mark has been 17.1 percent or lower the last three seasons. The rate will likely fall a bit. It’s more likely than not that Bruce will continue to produce, albeit at a lesser pace than we have seen to this point.
Braves Receive: Matt Kemp
Padres Receive: Hector Olivera
Seems like a salary dump, nothing more, here.
Kemp will continue to play daily and he will form, with Freddie Freeman, a strong 1-2 duo in the middle of the order for the Braves. Kemp hasn’t attempted a steal this season, he isn’t who he once was, but he’s still productive. Kemp has 23 homers, three more than Bryce Harper. Kemp has 69 RBI, one more than Kris Bryant. Kemp has scored 54 times, five more than Giancarlo Stanton. His outlook remains pretty much the same. The Padres will call up Jabari Blash to fill the outfield need as Manny Margot and Hunter Renfroe will continue to bide their time in the minors for the Friars.
Oliver is serving an 82 game suspension for domestic violence. Next week, when he’s removed from the restricted list, he will be designated for assignment by the Padres. It seems likely he will never play a game for the Padres.
Yankees Receive: RHP Dillon Tate, Erick Swanson, Nick Greeb
Rangers Receive: Carlos Beltran
Beltran the only one that matters now, though the Yankees got a nice haul. Beltran has been a wonder this season, and his addition helps to less the blow of the loss of Prince Fielder and the continued woes with Shin-Soo Choo (he should return from the DL later this week). The thought is that Beltran could take some work from Choo in the outfield though he will likely most often fill the designated hitter role (Joey Gallo was demoted amongst the flurry of Rangers moves). Beltran is a 39 year old switch hitter who is batting .304 with 22 homers, 64 RBI and a .890 OPS. He’s been terrific, but some notes. (1) The last time Beltran hit .300 was 2011. (2) He failed to hit 20 homers the last two seasons. (3) He failed to reach 70 RBI the last two years. (4) He failed to score 60 runs the last two seasons. (4) His .344 OBP is still below his career rate. (5) his 0.31 BB/K ratio is half his career mark of 0.62. (6) His .546 SLG is a 10-year high. Yes, I think regression is coming.
Giants Receive: Matt Moore
Rays Receive: 3B Matt Duffy, SS Lucius Fox and RHP Michael Santos
Moore is 7-7 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He’s in a really nice groove his last six starts having allowed three or fewer earned runs each time out. He also owns a 1.99 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in those six outings. His walk rate is down to 3.10 per nine in that time, that will play, but his 5.53 K/9 rate is vexing given his arm talent. He’s “pitching” well, though he will need a return of the strikeouts to dominate. The move to a pennant race and pitching in San Francisco shouldn’t hurt Moore in the least.
Duffy will likely play on a daily basis with the Rays once his Achilles is better, though it won’t be at third base (he is very close to being healthy enough for a recall). "Obviously, we have a third baseman in Evan Longoria, he's as good as anybody in the game, so [Duffy] will not be playing third," manager Kevin Cash said. "But we do look at him playing some short. He's versatile that he can play second. And obviously, spell Longo at third." Duffy, who went .295-12-77-77-12 last season, can be an effective fantasy performer, especially with multi-position eligibility, something it sounds like he will be picking up before too long. Still, he was pretty dreadful this season with the Giants (.253/.313/.358) and it’s no lock he will return to prominence with his new club.
Matt Andriese will take over in the rotation for the Rays. As a starter this season he took the bump eight times with a 5-1 record, 2.92 ERA and 1.20 WHIP along with 6.4 strikeouts per nine. He’s a strong add in AL-only leagues if he was dropped.
Blue Jays Receive: Drew Hutchison
Pirates Receive: Francisco Liriano, OF Harold Ramirez, C/DH Reese McGuire
Hutchison will head to Triple-A. He could gain a third year of team control if he spends enough time in the minors this season. That means he’s no lock to be in the rotation in Pittsburgh at any point soon. Ivan Nova, acquired in another deal with the Yankees, will take Liriano’s spot in the rotation. We can wish it would be Hutchison, but for now, it’s not gonna be.
Liriano to the AL to pitch at that home park? That is not good. On the road this season Liriano has a 6.59 ERA and a .383 wOBA thanks to a .273/.390/.502 slash line. That’s an all-star level of production against him. He also continues to be the worst in baseball with a 5.46 per nine walk rate. The strikeouts will continue to be there, but his already spotty outlook is even worse after this deal.
Dodgers Receive: Rich Hill, Josh Reddick
Athletics Receive: RHPs Jharel Cotton, Grant Holmes and Frankie Montas
Hill stinks. Don’t care what anyone says when they argue ‘but he’s so good when he’s healthy.’ Perfect fit with the Dodgers too given that they seem to covet broken down hurlers. Hill last threw last threw 80-innings in 2007. He’s 36. He spent time on the DL this season, twice, and has thrown a total of 12.0 innings since May 29th. I honestly don’t get the excitement.
Reddick is a solid add for the Dodgers, but he too has warts. It sounds like he could be limited to only facing righties with the team from L.A., which will hurt his counting numbers. At the same time, his slash line production (.341/.408/.547) will likely impress maintaining his outlook as a 4/5 outfielder in mixed leagues, that is unless he regresses to his career levels (.268/.328/.461). Things could get crowded once Trayce Thompson (back), Andre Ethier (leg) are ready to return. Note – Yasiel Puig will likely be sent to the minors. He’s a moron, but that’s one talented fella. If he goes down and hits .400 it won’t take long for him to be recalled which could make playing time even more dicey.
Twins Receive: Hector Santiago
Angels Receive: Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer
A swap of a couple of rather uninspiring hurlers.
Santiago is 10-4 but that comes with a 4.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The 7.98 K/9 rate plays, but the 4.25 BB/9 ratio is flat out terrible and a huge concern, though Santiago is on a very nice run since July began (6-0, 1.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Even with that seemingly great work in July he still has a 5.35 BB/9 rate in that time. He just doesn’t have the skills to sustain the outward success. An extreme fly ball pitcher, the move helps a bit as he goes from the 13th best homer park to the 20th according to Park Factors.
Nolasco is 4-8 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He’s the owner of a solid 3.21 K/BB ratio, but the 6.71 K/9 ain’t doing ya any favors. We’ve seen his game for years. Some spurts of excitement, but ultimately disappointment.
Giants Receive: Will Smith
Brewers Receive: RHP Phil Bickford and C Andrew Susac
Some seem to think that Smith could close with the Giants. He will not. The team has Santiago Casilla (24 saves, 10.89 K/9) and likely Sergio Romo ahead of Smith in a best case scenario for Smith. A lefty, Smith strikes guys out though his K/9 rate of 9.00 this season would be a four year worst (11.61 previous low). He’s an NL-only arm.
Susac will get a shot at some playing time before the season is over with Lucroy now in Texas. Susac would become a league specific option if given PT as he had a .240/.309/.409 slash in 2014-15.
Orioles Receive: Wade Miley
Mariners Receive: LHP Ariel Miranda
Miley is 7-8 with a 4.98 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.59 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9. Innings eater was coined to describe Miley who is a nobody in all fantasy leagues.
Sounds like Miranda, a 27 year old with a 3.93 ERA this season at Triple-A, could start Thursday against the Red Sox. You will not want to have him active for that.
Orioles Receive: Steve Pearce
Rays Receive: C Jonah Heim
Pearce can play first, second and the outfield. He returns to the scene of his best MLB season hitting. 309 with 10 homers and a .908 OPS over 60 games. "Steve Pearce is a proven, versatile player who gives our club more punch and stronger defense whenever he is in the lineup and a stronger bench when he is not," executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette said. The move is likely a negative for his fantasy outlook though as he might be limited to work against lefties where he has been marvelous this season (.377/.476/.736) as the Orioles have much more depth than do the Rays, that is unless Joey Rickard continues to miss time.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).