Trevor Bauer has a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season with a 9.32 K/9 mark. Let’s add last year to this year and see what we find. Over his last 204 innings Bauer has 14 victories, a 4.46 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and 199 punchouts. He can be slightly better than that, especially in the ERA category if the Indians will just let him pitch.
Xander Bogaerts is batting .328 on the year with six steals. That’s 189 games of a .320+ batting average for the Sox shortstop. Don’t think many folks realize just how good he has already become.
Jeff Mans talks about Bartolo Colon, Jaba the Hutt and Goiters in his May 12th Top-5 Video. It’s epic and well worth your time.
Michael Conforto isn’t as good as you think. Lance McCullers is returning. Is Byron Buxton a flop? Is Jose Berrios a disappointment? The Mailbag.
Zack Cozart is batting .330 with four homers, but he’s also walked just twice in 26 games leading to a mere .330 OBP. Shockingly, that would be a career best mark for Cozart who owns a career .287 OBP. Just dreadful. Over his last 10 games he’s batting .216 with a .231 OBP. That’s the Cozart we know and love.
I hit on Rubby De La Rosa in this Player Profile.
Over his last 12 games Aledmys Diaz has hit .250 with a .279 OBP and .290 wOBA. Yes, the goodness has ended.
Scooter Gennett is back from the disabled list after missing time with a strained oblique. He can’t hit lefties, but he is someone you can turn to against righties as his career slash line points out (.306/.339/.463).
Phil Hughes has allowed a whopping seven homers in just 36.1 innings this season. That means he’s allowed 36 homers his last 34 outings. Just shocking. He’s only walked, get this, 24 batters in that time, but those homers are flat out crushing him to the point where you can’t feel comfortable using him in mixed leagues.
Matt Kilroy struck out a major league record 513 batters in his rookie season back in 1886. He never struck out 220 batters again.
I’m concerned about Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard. Find out why in the Daily Trends piece.
Drew Pomeranz has an 11.48 K/9 rate and people are really are taking notice. At the same time, the concerns follow. (1) His 82.1 percent LOB rate isn’t going to continue. There are usually a mere couple of folks that produce at that level, the elites of the elite, year after year. (2) It’s impossible to post a 1.80 ERA with a walk rate of 4.28 per nine. In fact, I would argue it’s impossible to post a mark under 3.50 with that rate. Note that only one pitcher in baseball walked more than 3.86 batters per nine last season and threw 162 or more innings – Trevor Bauer at 4.04. (3) In his five previous seasons DP has never thrown 100-innings at the big league level and the last two years he’s thrown a total of 203.1 innings (minors frames included). His arm isn’t going to hold up long enough to make 30 starts.
Is Rick Porcello for real? How good is Wei-Yin Chen? Is there any panic if you own J.D. Martinez? The Daily Dive video takes a look at those three men.
Colby Rasmus is out of the lineup Thursday. Rasmus had a .979 OPS in April and I warned you. He’s had a .417 mark in May.
Fernando Rodney hasn’t allowed an earned run this season (one run total). He’s also a perfect 10-for-10 in the saves category. Who would have thought? Still has that horrible walk rate, 3.86 per nine, and the 8.36 K/9 rate would make it two straight years under 8.4 after a run of 3-straight years above 9.1.
The Royals are placing Chris Young (forearm strain) and Kris Medlen (rotator cuff inflammation), on the DL Thursday. Sounds like the Royals could be looking at Danny Duffy (who will start Sunday) and Brian Flynn starting. Neither guy is more than an AL-only play.
Trevor Story is impressing me, there I said it. You got me. I will say that I’m still really concerned with his massive K-rate of 32.7 percent, a pace that would lead to 235 strikeouts which would be an all-time record. Also concerning is that he’s batting a mere .243 with a .287 OBP against right-handed pitching. Still be cautious with Story.
Mike Tomlin hasn’t walked a batter in his last two starts. Neither has Clayton Kershaw. Meanwhile, Masahiro Tanaka has a 0.42 BB/9 rate over his last three starts, only slightly ahead of the 0.50 mark posted by Matt Cain in three starts. Cain is 0-3 in that time with a mere 6.00 K/9 and 2.50 HR/9 mark leading to a 7.00 ERA. Some positive steps for Cain, but he should be nowhere near your mixed league lineup. Duh, right?
Yordano Ventura is walking a 6.81 BB/9 rate. It’s amazing his ERA is only 4.62. He’s got a tremendous arm, and it could all snap into place at any moment, but you shouldn’t be starting him right now in any format because of that explosion potential.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
Player News
Willi Castro (oblique) could return to the Twins’ lineup this weekend.
Castro has been sidelined with an oblique injury since April 16th and was finally placed on the IL late last week. He has been swinging the bat right-handed and plans to swing left-handed on Tuesday. If his body responds well to that, the Twins could bring him back for this weekend’s series against Boston, which could cut into the playing time for Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien.
Royce Lewis (hamstring) will play 10 innings in a doubleheader on Tuesday and could return to Minnesota on May 6th.
Lewis will play 10 innings as the team’s designated hitter during a doubleheader for Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday and then play a full game at third base on Wednesday, assuming Tuesday goes well. Even though that could mean Lewis returns this weekend, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes suggests “it’s likelier Lewis will play several more games over the weekend and return when the Twins open a homestand on May 6.”
Matt Wallner (hamstring) just started jogging on the treadmill on Monday.
Wallner has been out with a Grade 3 hamstring strain since April 15th. He has yet to swing a bat and will be re-evaluated by the Twins when they return home next week. We won’t have a firm timeline for Wallner’s return until he starts swinging, but it sounds like there’s a chance we don’t see him back until late May or early June.
Twins trainer Nick Paparesta said Luke Keaschall (forearm) will rest and won’t be re-evaluated “for at least a month.”
Keaschall suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right forearm, which halted his impressive MLB debut. The injury won’t require surgery, but the Twins will take time to allow it to heal on its own. “It’s probably going to be a couple of months before he’s back into playing games,” Paparesta said. When he does come back, there’s no guarantee he slots right back into the Minnesota lineup, so we may not see Keaschall back in the big leagues until the end of the summer.
Shane Bieber (elbow) is set to throw simulated games in the Arizona Complex League.
Bieber has said that he’s feeling healthy but is being deliberate in his rehab to ensure that he doesn’t come back too soon. The veteran’s target date had always been sometime around the All-Star break, so this would keep him on schedule. After Bieber throws simulated games, he would likely make a few rehab starts before returning to Cleveland. If all goes well, he could be back by the end of June.
Tony Gonsolin (back) will return from the injured list and start for the Dodgers on Wednesday against the Marlins.
Gonsolin missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was then sidelined by a back injury in spring after just three innings. The 30-year-old had a great season in 2022 and has been a solid starter for the Dodgers over his career. His lack of strikeouts limits his fantasy value a bit, but his velocity has been up in his rehab outings, so he could be worth a stash in deeper formats while he remains in the Dodgers’ rotation.