AVOID HARVEY
On February 1st I wrote Avoid Matt Harvey in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. “Do yourself a favor and just ignore Harvey. If he produces in 2017 that’s great news and I will reassess in 2018. For now, just not interested.”
People didn’t listen apparently as I continue to receive questions about him on daily basis.
People are starting to listen now.
Harvey doesn’t have his velocity. "You can't look past it," Harvey said. "It's going to be there or it's not, and I have to go out and pitch. I think after today, I feel really confident going into my next outing and moving forward.” For the third straight outing this spring, the former 97-98 mph heat was sitting at 91-93 mph. "Every year, you're not trying to compare yourself to something else or someone else, or even me in 2013," Harvey said. "It's my job to go out and stay focused on the task at hand."
Don’t know about you, but doesn’t that sound like a beaten man to you? Does to me.
As I warned in the Avoid Harvey piece noted above, the surgery he had has a very short track record of success in the big leagues. Those of you out there blindly drafting Harvey expect a nearly full rebound... I was never in that group. A check of the ADP shows that while most of you aren’t fully buying a rebound from Harvey, you are all very bullish.
NFBC: 145.3, 34th at starting pitcher
Mock Draft Army: 172.6, 64th at pitcher
Note that although he’s going 30 pitchers later in the MDA data, he’s only being taken 27 picks later in the draft as MDA folks are going bananas with the pitching selections.
Not convinced that you should be concerned? Some more data.
Eno Sarris wrote a fascinating article about Matt Harvey.
Sarris points out some rather startling facts if you’re expecting vintage Harvey this season.
Since 2015, when Harvey hits 98 mph on his fastball the swinging strike rate is 21.2 percent. When he is at 92 mph his swinging strike rate is 3.8 percent. In fact, any time that his fastball has been 96 or slower his swinging strike rate has been below nine percent, nowhere near the league average of 10.1 percent last season. Read that again. If Harvey’s fastball is 96 mph or slower he doesn’t generate a league average swinging strike rate.
Furthermore...
Harvey’s changeup last season ranked 131st, below the league average.
Harvey’s slider last season was below average in drop.
Harvey’s curve last season had four inches less drop than average,
There’s no hope of a full rebound.
Unless the velocity comes back, the best you should be hoping for is a league average arm.
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TARGET STROMAN
I’m pretty bullish on Marcus Stroman. Here’s some audio talking about it.
Here’s some of the reasons why I’m in.
Stroman has smooth, repeatable mechanics.
He can throw four pitches for strikes.
I know he’s little at 5’9” and 185 lbs, and while that may be an issue at some point down the round, I’m not worried about it right now.
Coming back from knee surgery, he surprised and threw 204 innings last season. While the 4.37 ERA wasn’t anything to get excited about, there were still a ton of positives. On the year, he posted a 3.07 K/BB ratio, a solid mark. He also posted a 60.1 percent ground ball rate that led to a 2.95 GB/FB ratio. The ground ball rate led baseball. The GB/FB ratio led baseball. He was particularly sharp in the second half with some impressive numbers including an 8.49 K/9 rate, 2.15 BB/9 rate and he was nearly identical to his season long GB/FB rate with a mark of 2.91.
So much to like with the diminutive hurler...
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 7 PM EDT, Wednesday 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
Player News
Dylan Moore is not in the Mariners’ starting lineup for Friday night’s tilt against the Rangers.
The expectation had been that Moore would see regular starts at third base with Jorge Polanco being limited to designated hitter duties, but on Friday night it’s Miles Mastrobuoni at the hot corner and Leo Rivas starting at second base for the M’s. Expect things to remain fluid for as long as Polanco is unable to play in the field.
Justyn-Henry Malloy is not in the Tigers’ starting lineup for Friday night’s series opener against the Twins.
We knew that something would have to give with Gleyber Torres returning from the injured list on Friday and in the first iteration of the lineup it’s Malloy sitting against a right-handed pitcher with Spencer Torkelson still entrenched at first base, Colt Keith functioning as the team’s designated hitter and Kerry Carpenter starting in left field. Expect Malloy to see regular action against left-handed pitching but it looks like he could be on the short side of a platoon now.
Tigers activated INF Gleyber Torres from the 10-day injured list.
Torres missed a couple of weeks after suffering a left oblique strain while hitting a home run against the Dodgers during the opening series of the season. He’ll jump right back into the Tigers’ lineup at second base and will bat leadoff against David Festa and the Twins on Friday evening in Minneapolis.
J.T. Realmuto is absent from the Phillies’ lineup for Friday night’s showdown against the Cardinals.
It’s nothing more than a routine day off for the hard-hitting backstop, especially after catching late into the night during an extra-inning game on Thursday night that included a lengthy rain delay. Rafael Marchan will start behind the dish for the Phillies and will bat ninth against Cardinals’ right-hander Andre Pallante.
Pirates recalled RHP Kyle Nicolas from Triple-A Indianapolis.
As anticipated, Nicolas gets the call to join the Pirates’ bullpen after Thomas Harrington was optioned out on Thursday. Nicolas made 51 appearances out of the Bucs’ bullpen in 2024, compiling a 3.95 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and a 55/31 K/BB ratio across 54 2/3 innings. He’ll function in a middle relief role for manager Derek Shelton.
Connor Norby (oblique) will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Saturday.
The 24-year-old infielder has been shelved since the final week of March due to a strained oblique. He’s only expected to need a handful of games on his rehab assignment before he’s ready to rejoin the Marlins’. The expectation is that he’ll rejoin the big league club before the end of next week, which will push Graham Pauley back into a part-time role.