Ray’s Ramblings: A Bullpen Update

• NOTE: Howard Bender updates you on the 9^th inning a couple of times a week in the Closer Grid.

THE CARDINALS BULLPEN

Since the start of the 2014 season here are the league leaders in saves.

107 – Trevor Rosenthal
106 – Mark Melancon
102 – Crain Kimbrel, Francisco Rodriguez
101 – Kenley Jansen

That’s right, the league leader in saves the last two and a half years is… Trevor Rosenthal. Recently removed from the 9^th inning with the Cardinals, I find it easy to envision a scenario in which Rosenthal is back in the 9^th inning in short order IF he can get his game in check (here’s a review of the situation in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The biggest issue has been the free pass. Rosenthal has allowed a whopping 21 walks this season a year after he issued 25 walks in 68.2 innings. The result this season is an incomprehensible 7.88 free passes per nine innings this season. You can’t get big league hitters out doing that. You certainly can’t be working the 9^th inning. Still, his success in the role in recent years means if he goes out there, dominates for a few outings, that he could easily return to his old haunt of the 9^th inning.

Seung Hwan Oh is the all-time leader in Korea in saves and he’s been nails this season, and then some. Over 38 innings he’s punched out 51 batters while walking just eight batters while permitting a single big fly in his first year in the States. He’s been a dominate force out of the bullpen this season for the Cards. Period. Really surprised as to how many leagues he’s available in by the way. If you’re in a 12 or 15-team league he should have been rostered for a long while now – like since April. Sunday it was Oh in the 9^th if the opportunity arose, and I would figure it would be Oh, not Kevin Siegrist or Jonathan Broxton, who would take over if indeed the Cardinals are done with Rosenthal.

CLOSER FACTS

It’s time to admit that Zach Britton deserves to be called the second best lefty closer in baseball to Aroldis Chapman. Actually, you could make an argument that Britton has actually been a more effective reliever than Chapman since 2014. Check out the amazing numbers.

Santiago Casilla has a 2.43 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.83 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9. Those are elite numbers, so why does everyone (including me) have way less faith in Casilla than the numbers indicate we should? For me it’s from watching him for years with the Giants. He’s just not this good. In fact, only once in the last five years has he struck out eight guys per nine so how do you explain a career best 11.83 rate that is two full batters higher than ever before? You simply cannot explain it through logic or through the 10.8 percent swinging strike mark that is only one tenth above his career average. He also has a walk rate of less than 3.00 per nine for only the second time in 13 seasons (though the other time was in 2013). He also has a 12 year high with a 1.21 HR/9 mark. The job is his, but I remain concerned.

Tony Cingrani is just 9-for-14 in converting saves this season. He also has a 3.74 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He’s striking out just 6.95 batters per nine with an even worse 5.08 BB/9 ratio. All those numbers are average to awful. But, things are slightly better than that. Over his last eight outings he’s walked only two batters and given up only one run as he’s converted all four save chances he’s been given. Raisel Iglesias might be coming, but it seems like Cingrani might not be so willing to give up his 9^th inning spot anytime soon in Cincinnati.

Wade Davis has converted 35-of-37 save chances since the start of last season. Since the beginning of the 2014 campaign he’s been better than --- better than any reliever in baseball actually. Over 166.2 innings Davis has 18 victories with 38 saves. He’s also the owner of a 0.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, not to mention 213 strikeouts. Hell, you could make an argument that he’s been the best pitcher in baseball in that time.

Jeurys Familia has added an entire point to his ERA from last season (up from 1.85 to 2.89). He’s lost a batter and a half off his strikeout rate (9.92 down to 8.44). He’s added half a batter to his walk rate (2.19 up to 2.65). No one cares since he is a perfect 26-for-26 in saves.

Craig Kimbrel has a 2.40 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a 13.50 K/9 rate. So why do I get questions from folks who consider Kimbrel to be disappointing? Really folks, really? Kimbrel is on pace for 33 saves this season, and saves come in bunches. Don’t worry about him.

Ryan Madson still concerns me a wee bit but of late he’s been much better. Over his last seven outings he’s posted a 1.23 ERA with eight strikeouts and one walk over 7.1 innings. Things are looking up in Oakland.

Jonathan Papelbon has averaged 31 saves the past three seasons. This year he’s on pace for… 32 saves. He will start a rehab stint Monday at Potomac and should return late this week if he suffers no setbacks. He’s a punk, and it’s not always pretty, but he converts saves. I will say that he’s getting by more on reputation than skills at this point which can easily be seen in his 6.93 K/9 rate. That mark is more than three batters off his career rate, and it’s a full batter lower than his previous career worst of 7.96 set last season. You want to own Shawn Kelley if you own Papelbon, but the veteran righty can still convert saves.

A.J. Ramos is a perfect 24-for-24 in save chance this season, and for the second season in a row his K-rate is better than 11 per nine (it’s 11.03 this season). I do worry a bit about the 5.23 walk rate per nine which is scary high, even for a guy with a 4.74 per nine mark for his career.

David Robertson always seems to hit a road bump – and then to blow right through it. Robertson is 20-for-22 in save chances this season with a 9.92 K/9 rate. Alas, his walk rate has exploded to 5.23 per nine, a scary number, but he does continue to convert saves. Keep an eye on the walks. If he can curtail them the concerns with the productive righty will abate.

Brad Ziegler has 16 saves in 17 save chances. That’s 46 saves in his last 49 save chances. That is elite level stuff. His K/9 rate is up a full batter this season, though the mark still stinks at 5.94 per nine. He’s also seen his walk rate spike to 3.24 leading to a 1.83 K/BB ratio, a mark that would be a 6-year low. Still hasn’t allowed a homer this season though. He’s sporting that elite 3.61 GB/FB ratio though the lack of punchouts and the walks inching upward continue leave me on the fence with Ziegler.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).