Here are some data points taken from Baseball Heat Maps.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia leads baseball with an average batted ball distance of 234.2 feet. The only other player over 231 feet is David Ortiz. Here’s a look at the top-10.
Rank | Name | Year | Batted Balls | Distance |
1 | Saltalamacchia Jarrod | 2016 | 52 | 234.2 |
2 | Ortiz David | 2016 | 140 | 230.6 |
3 | Carpenter Matt | 2016 | 137 | 229.9 |
4 | Young Chris | 2016 | 56 | 229.7 |
5 | Moss Brandon | 2016 | 76 | 224.2 |
6 | Davis Chris | 2016 | 113 | 224.1 |
7 | Story Trevor | 2016 | 129 | 223.6 |
8 | Howard Ryan | 2016 | 91 | 222.0 |
9 | Sano Miguel | 2016 | 113 | 221.6 |
10 | Wright David | 2016 | 86 | 221.1 |
If we up the limit from 50 batted balls to 125, here is the new leaderboard.
Rank | Name | Year | Batted Balls | Distance |
2 | Ortiz David | 2016 | 140 | 230.6 |
3 | Carpenter Matt | 2016 | 137 | 229.9 |
7 | Story Trevor | 2016 | 129 | 223.6 |
13 | Belt Brandon | 2016 | 150 | 216.0 |
14 | Freeman Freddie | 2016 | 132 | 215.8 |
15 | Castellanos Nick | 2016 | 140 | 215.5 |
17 | Cespedes Yoenis | 2016 | 134 | 213.1 |
18 | Murphy Daniel | 2016 | 174 | 213.1 |
19 | Shaw Travis | 2016 | 143 | 213.0 |
21 | Werth Jayson | 2016 | 126 | 212.7 |
Freeman is an interesting case. He’s on pace for 62 RBI, and that’s all folks seem to want to look at. How about we pay attention to the .518 SLG and the 29 homer, 38 double pace.
Murphy is having a hell of a season as he’s already hit a career best 17 homers.
Shaw and Werth aren’t elite, nope, but their average batted ball is going pretty far.
Let’s move over to ESPN. Here is the list of players who had “Just Enough” to gain a home run. Here are all the men with seven homers that qualify.
Hitter | Just Enough HRs |
Cano, Robinson | 11 |
Betts, Mookie | 11 |
Davis, Khris | 11 |
Freeman, Freddie | 9 |
Rizzo, Anthony | 8 |
Russell, Addison | 8 |
Beltre, Adrian | 8 |
Castellanos, Nick | 8 |
Davis, Chris | 8 |
Duvall, Adam | 7 |
Arenado, Nolan | 7 |
Morales, Kendrys | 7 |
Semien, Marcus | 7 |
Dozier, Brian | 7 |
Springer, George | 7 |
Lamb, Jake | 7 |
Kipnis, Jason | 7 |
Cabrera, Asdrubal | 7 |
Three men are in the double-digits, and that would seem to speak to guys who are likely to see their homer pace slow a bit in the second half, no?
Here’s the even more concerning table of homers. The following list of homers includes “lucky” blasts.
Hitter | Lucky HRs |
Betts, Mookie | 4 |
Trout, Mike | 4 |
Nunez, Eduardo | 3 |
Odor, Rougned | 3 |
Rizzo, Anthony | 3 |
Castellanos, Nick | 2 |
Martinez, Victor | 2 |
Granderson, Curtis | 2 |
Ramos, Wilson | 2 |
McCutchen, Andrew | 2 |
Eaton, Adam | 2 |
Pujols, Albert | 2 |
Cabrera, Asdrubal | 2 |
Seager, Kyle | 2 |
Grandal, Yasmani | 2 |
Saunders, Michael | 2 |
Davis, Chris | 2 |
Johnson, Kelly | 2 |
Hardy, J.J. | 2 |
Davis, Khris | 2 |
Zimmerman, Ryan | 2 |
Rua, Ryan | 2 |
Rendon, Anthony | 2 |
Bour, Justin | 2 |
Gonzalez, Adrian | 2 |
The number of four doesn’t sound like much, but think of it this way. Betts has hit 18 home runs this season. That puts him on pace for 34 homers this season. If we remove his four “lucky” homers he would have a total of 14 homers hit. That would mean he is on pace for about 26 homers this season. That’s a pretty substantial difference, is it not?
The loss is even more significant if you’re Eduardo Nunez. Losing three homers takes him from 12 to nine homers. That loss would take his pace to well under 20 instead of well over it.
Here are the batters with the longest average distance per home run hit (minimum 10 homers).
Hitter | Home Runs | Avg. True Dist. |
Mazara, Nomar | 11 | 425.1 |
Gonzalez, Carlos | 19 | 423.7 |
Stanton, Giancarlo | 20 | 421.8 |
Moreland, Mitch | 11 | 420.8 |
Cruz, Nelson | 23 | 417.1 |
Park, Byung Ho | 12 | 417.0 |
Story, Trevor | 21 | 416.9 |
Miller, Brad | 14 | 415.9 |
Rasmus, Colby | 11 | 414.6 |
Carter, Chris | 22 | 414.5 |
Rodriguez, Sean | 10 | 414.4 |
Pederson, Joc | 13 | 414.2 |
Upton Jr., Melvin | 16 | 413.4 |
Cron, C.J. | 11 | 412.5 |
Encarnacion, Edwin | 23 | 412.4 |
Schoop, Jonathan | 14 | 411.7 |
Grandal, Yasmani | 12 | 411.5 |
Posey, Buster | 11 | 411.5 |
Donaldson, Josh | 23 | 411.0 |
Valencia, Danny | 12 | 410.9 |
Trout, Mike | 18 | 410.8 |
Grichuk, Randal | 10 | 410.7 |
Mazara has been slumping, but when he hits a big fly, boy does he hit it.
Moreland is probably a shock to everyone. Crushing it he does when hit.
Park is in the minors. So much for hitting long fly balls.
Rasmus never hits the ball, but like Carter, both men hit the ball really far when they square it up.
Valencia hits his ball a tenth of a foot further than Trout. That’s something.
There are 18 men in baseball who have hit 20 homers this season. Here is that list.
Hitter | Home Runs | Avg. True Dist. |
Trumbo, Mark | 28 | 409.4 |
Bryant, Kris | 25 | 405.9 |
Frazier, Todd | 25 | 390.8 |
Cruz, Nelson | 23 | 417.1 |
Encarnacion, Edwin | 23 | 412.4 |
Donaldson, Josh | 23 | 411.0 |
Duvall, Adam | 23 | 399.1 |
Arenado, Nolan | 23 | 397.3 |
Carter, Chris | 22 | 414.5 |
Ortiz, David | 22 | 403.6 |
Davis, Chris | 22 | 402.7 |
Story, Trevor | 21 | 416.9 |
Rizzo, Anthony | 21 | 401.2 |
Cespedes, Yoenis | 21 | 400.1 |
Cano, Robinson | 21 | 395.9 |
Stanton, Giancarlo | 20 | 421.8 |
Lamb, Jake | 20 | 404.7 |
Santana, Carlos | 20 | 402.9 |
According to that list, four men have failed to average 400 feet per homer: Frazier, Duvall, Arenado and Cano. Let’s look at the four.
Frazier has hit 25 homers. Only three of them have been to the right of center field. Seventeen of the homers have been hit from left center to the left field foul pole. The distance doesn’t seem likely to hinder his production.
Duvall has hit 23 homers. Six of his homers have been to the opposite field with only 12 being to the left center to the left field foul pole. His pace could slow if he doesn’t hit the ball more to the pull field or hit the ball further.
Arenado has 23 homers with only one to the right of center field. Nineteen of his homers have been pulled.
Cano has 21 homers with only three going to the opposite field. Oddly, when he pulls the ball he doesn’t hit it very far. Check out the chart.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
Player News
Willi Castro (oblique) could return to the Twins’ lineup this weekend.
Castro has been sidelined with an oblique injury since April 16th and was finally placed on the IL late last week. He has been swinging the bat right-handed and plans to swing left-handed on Tuesday. If his body responds well to that, the Twins could bring him back for this weekend’s series against Boston, which could cut into the playing time for Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien.
Royce Lewis (hamstring) will play 10 innings in a doubleheader on Tuesday and could return to Minnesota on May 6th.
Lewis will play 10 innings as the team’s designated hitter during a doubleheader for Triple-A St. Paul on Tuesday and then play a full game at third base on Wednesday, assuming Tuesday goes well. Even though that could mean Lewis returns this weekend, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes suggests “it’s likelier Lewis will play several more games over the weekend and return when the Twins open a homestand on May 6.”
Matt Wallner (hamstring) just started jogging on the treadmill on Monday.
Wallner has been out with a Grade 3 hamstring strain since April 15th. He has yet to swing a bat and will be re-evaluated by the Twins when they return home next week. We won’t have a firm timeline for Wallner’s return until he starts swinging, but it sounds like there’s a chance we don’t see him back until late May or early June.
Twins trainer Nick Paparesta said Luke Keaschall (forearm) will rest and won’t be re-evaluated “for at least a month.”
Keaschall suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right forearm, which halted his impressive MLB debut. The injury won’t require surgery, but the Twins will take time to allow it to heal on its own. “It’s probably going to be a couple of months before he’s back into playing games,” Paparesta said. When he does come back, there’s no guarantee he slots right back into the Minnesota lineup, so we may not see Keaschall back in the big leagues until the end of the summer.
Shane Bieber (elbow) is set to throw simulated games in the Arizona Complex League.
Bieber has said that he’s feeling healthy but is being deliberate in his rehab to ensure that he doesn’t come back too soon. The veteran’s target date had always been sometime around the All-Star break, so this would keep him on schedule. After Bieber throws simulated games, he would likely make a few rehab starts before returning to Cleveland. If all goes well, he could be back by the end of June.
Tony Gonsolin (back) will return from the injured list and start for the Dodgers on Wednesday against the Marlins.
Gonsolin missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was then sidelined by a back injury in spring after just three innings. The 30-year-old had a great season in 2022 and has been a solid starter for the Dodgers over his career. His lack of strikeouts limits his fantasy value a bit, but his velocity has been up in his rehab outings, so he could be worth a stash in deeper formats while he remains in the Dodgers’ rotation.