On June 30th of 2012, Mets' starting pitcher Johan Santana had a 2.76 ERA. That means halfway through the year his ERA was under three. By the time his season ended in mid August his ERA was 4.85. What happened over the course of his last five starts was legendary (he was shutdown for good after his August 17th outing). Santana allowed at least six earned runs in each of his last five starts as he went 0-5 with a 15.63 ERA. Moreover, after throwing a career-high 134 pitches in his no-hitter on June 1st Santana dropped seven of 10 decisions with a 8.27 ERA and 1.76 WHIP while averaging less than five innings a start. Where does that leave Santana's value heading into the 2013 season?
Johan Santana hurt his shoulder, and as we have seen repeatedly, shoulder injuries are much dicier than elbow issues. Santana’s shoulder issue precluded him from throwing a single pitch during the 2011 big league season so it shouldn't have surprised many that he was only able to reach 117 innings last season. Did you listen when I warned against drafted Santana last February in One of Those Days where, to quote myself, I wrote the following: “Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was.†Let me be a bit more clear. Here are Johan's innings pitched marks the past four years: 166.2, 199, zero and 117. Three of the past four years he hasn't reached 170 innings, and the last time he tossed 200 innings was 2008. At 33, with a wonky shoulder, what are the odds he tosses 200 innings in 2013? I know the Mets are saying that they believe he will be able to carry a full workload this year, but that's just crazy talk if you ask me.
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So what happened last year? The Mets allowed Santana to get the first no hitter in franchise history, but they paid a dear price. Santana, as I noted above, was never the same pitcher thereafter. You can say 'coincidence' and maybe you are right, but the data certainly is pretty overwhelming that throwing those 134 pitches just wiped him out. Taking a look at the rest of his 2012 season, the Mets really blew it. Johan made 21 starts last season. Only seven times, one third of his outings, did he throw even 100 pitches. The Mets were very careful not to allow him to throw too many pitches, and when they limited his pitch count he was very effective. However, that one slip up throwing those 134 pitches certainly appears to have been his downfall. Does that mean the Mets will use him as a 5-6 inning guy this season? Obviously that could cut into his win potential if they chose to deploy him that way.
Some other facts to consider with Santana.
His ERA in 2012 was an 11 year high.
His WHIP was a 10 year high.
His 3.00 BB/9 mark was a nine year high.
His 2.85 K/BB ratio was his second worst mark of the past nine years.
His 1.31 HR/9 mark was the second worst mark of his career.
For the third straight year he failed to post a GB/FB ratio of 0.80. He allows an awful lot of fly balls.
Finally, everyone loves to down Tim Lincecum for his lost velocity, but I wonder how many noticed that Johan has lost almost 4.5 mph from his heyday off his heater (it was a career low 88.4 mph last year)?
Could we find Bigfoot by using an aerial drone?
On the plus side...
His 8.54 K.9 rate was a four season best, though still below his 8.83 career mark.
His 3.00 BB/9 mark was still below the league average, and his 2.85 K/BB ratio were still a half batter better than the league average. They might be bad numbers for Santana, but they are fine for a normal hurler.
His line drive rate was 24.0 percent. Even if his stuff is no longer elite that's a huge number for a guy who owns a career mark under 20 percent.
His HR/F ratio of 11.7 percent was the second worst mark of his career, well above his 9.2 career rate. Some normalization there would help.
The Mets are putting on a brave face saying that they think Johan will be good to go for Opening Day and that he will make 30 starts this season (they had better hope they are right since he is due $25 million this year with another $25 next season unless they buy out his 2014 campaign for $5.5 million). I'm not sold. As an aging hurler with lots of miles on his arm I'm concerned. Add in the shoulder woes he's dealt with and the historic collapse he tossed out there at the end of last season and you too should be very concerned. There's nothing wrong with taking a chance on Johan, he still knows how to “pitch,†but with all the issues surrounding him right now he had better be a reserve round type in mixed leagues and not someone you are counting on heavily in 2013.
- Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.
By Ray Flowers
Player News
Kris Bryant is scheduled undergo an ablation procedure on his back later this week.
Bryant will travel to Los Angeles on Thursday to have the procedure performed to aid healing in his back. The 33-year-old former NL MVP was diagnosed last month with lumbar degenerative disease and will have to manage the ongoing issue for the remainder of his playing career. There is no timetable for his return at the moment.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters he anticipates Brice Turang returning to the lineup for Friday’s game against the Rays.
Turang sat out Wednesday’s series finale against the Astros as he continues to battle a lingering illness. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports the 25-year-old has lost weight recently due to the unspecified illness and the club is trying to manage his workload as he makes his way back into shape.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy said he expects Sal Frelick (knee) to return for Friday’s series opener against the Rays.
Frelick has missed three consecutive games due to a left knee inflammation, but it sounds like there’s a strong belief he’ll be a full-go for Friday’s showdown against the Rays. The 25-year-old underwent an MRI earlier this week that didn’t reveal any structural issues, which is good news.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters he anticipates William Contreras (finger) returning for Friday’s series opener against the Rays.
Contreras was diagnosed with a fractured left middle finger, which he has been playing through for “some time.” The lingering issue hasn’t impacted his on-field performance yet, but it could become problematic if he’s unable to grip a bat or properly close his glove while catching. Fantasy managers shouldn’t anticipate the 27-year-old slugging backstop missing any time, but it’s an injury situation he’ll need to manage moving forward.
Dodgers recalled RHP Matt Sauer from Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Sauer rejoins the Dodgers’ bullpen mix to replace an injured Evan Phillips (forearm) prior to Wednesday’s showdown against the Marlins. The 26-year-old righty has allowed just two runs over 6 2/3 innings (two appearances) this season at the big-league level.
Dodgers placed RHP Evan Phillips on the 10-day injured list with right forearm discomfort.
Phillips returns to the injured list just a couple weeks after making it back from last year’s tendon tear in his right rotator cuff. It’s a significant hit to Los Angeles’ high-leverage mix if he winds up requiring a lengthy absence. The 30-year-old righty has notched one save while tossing 5 2/3 scoreless innings across seven relief appearances this season. There should be an update on his status in the coming days.