Pitching Targets to Know

Everyone knows they should be drafting Max Scherzer or Aroldis Chapman, but what are the benchmarks you should be using to select the hurlers on your staff?

We talk a lot about drafting skills with regard to pitchers in the fantasy game, but that talk rarely moves to the level of dissecting the numbers we’re actually looking at and for. In what follows, I will lay out the baseline targets in a number of pitching categories. The overall results may or may not have been there in 2016 for these arms, but the skills they displayed are suggestive of success if they are to be replicated in 2017.

THE STRIKEOUT

Starters: At least a K/9 of 7.75
Relievers: At least a K/9 of 8.50

2016 Starters Average: 7.76 per nine
2016 Relievers Average: 8.86 per nine
2016 Major League average: 8.10 per nine

The strikeout is a sign of a pitcher’s ability to dominate hitters. It's also one of the five main categories in 5x5 fantasy leagues. The fewer balls that are put in play, the less likely a batter is to get on base, I’m a genius. Hence the power of the strikeout. Note that in most instances I'm still rather unlikely to roster a starter with a K/9 mark under 7.25 or a reliever with a mark under 8.00.

THE WALK

Starters: A BB/9 mark below 3.00
Relievers: A BB/9 mark below 3.25

2016 Starters Average: 2.96 per nine
2016 Relievers Average: 3.45 per nine
2016 Major League average: 3.14 per nine

I have no time for hurlers who can't seem to locate their pitches and neither should you. Free passes lead to runs and you want no part of that. When a pitcher cannot locate his pitches all manner of problems result. #Duh

K/BB SUCCESS

Starters: A K/BB mark above 2.60
Relievers: A K/BB mark above 2.75

2016 Starters Average: 2.62
2016 Relievers Average: 2.53
2016 Major League average: 2.58

Some big power arms post huge strikeout marks but they just cannot throw strikes (I’m looking straight at you Blake Snell). You have to be very careful with power arms that cannot throw strikes which is why utilizing K/BB ratio is important.

GROUND BALL / FLY BALL RATIOS

Starters: A GB/FB mark better than 1.25
Relievers: A GB/FB mark better than 1.50
2016 Major League average: 1.30

If a reliever gives up two hits, a single up the middle and a chopper over the third baseman's head, you likely won't get too nervous. However, if he gives up two hits and they are a homer and a double off the wall, that's going to lead to a lot of runners crossing home plate. A starter can overcome a run here and there with scoreless innings before and after the runs scoring, whereas relievers obviously don't have that luxury, so the more ground balls they can generate the better.

PITCHERS TO TARGET

So now you know the baselines. Ideally you would set the above listed numbers as the minimum levels you would want to require on your fantasy squad. Ideally, you will be aiming even higher than those levels in a perfect world. That said, it’s not always feasible to roster a staff with three 200-inning arms that strike out eight batters per nine while walking 2.25 per nine or less now is it? Given that obvious fact I’ve devised a simple list of numbers that you can use to filter out the riff-raff on the bump as you build your staff.

Starters: 7.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower (minimum 160 IP)
There were 42 men who hit the above baseline marks in 2016 (listed by strikeout rate).

Starters: 7.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower (minimum 160 IP), 2.65 K/BB or better
There were 34 men who hit the above baseline marks in 2016 (listed by K/9).

Let’s take this to a higher level. I say all the time we walk strikeouts, a lack of walks and... groundouts. Here are the men, from above, that also posted a 1.30 GB/FB ratio.

Starters: 7.00 K/9 or better, 3.00 BB/9 or lower, 2.65 K/BB or better (minimum 162 IP) plus 1.30 or better GB/FB. The list ends up shrinking considerably as only 13 qualify. This is a group of men with the skills you want to target on draft day.

Remember – strikeouts, no walks, ground balls. Repeat. Strikeouts, no walks, ground balls. Repeat…

Let's move on to bullpen arms.

Relievers: 8.50 K/9 or better, 2.85 BB/9 or lower, 3.00 K/BB or better (minimum 40 innings pitched). There were 33 qualifiers.

Relievers: 8.50 K/9 or better, 2.85 BB/9 or lower, 3.00 K/BB or better (minimum 40 games pitched) plus 1.50 or better GB/FB (in some cases, these are the cheap late-round adds that can make a huge difference for you in league specific setups). Add in some grounders, and let's see what we are left with - 15 men. These are the pen arms that should be intriguing to you with some less than household names on the list.

PITCHER STRAND RATES

The big-league average for strand rates, more commonly called Left On Base Percentage, is roughly 70-percent. When a pitcher is substantially below that number in one year there is a reasonable expectation the number, and the pitchers performance, will rebound in the following year. Conversely, when a pitcher greatly exceeds that level, he's more apt to see his production decrease in the following campaign. Note that certain pitchers, because of their tremendous skills or lack thereof, may repeat their 2016 efforts even if the number is high (this measure is kind of like BABIP in that certain players can establish a higher than average rate and stay at that level).

Eight men were over 80 percent, a number that is virtually impossible to repeat (minimum 162 innings pitched).

84.9 – Jon Lester
83.1 – Ian Kennedy
81.7 – Max Scherzer
81.5 – Kyle Hendricks
81.2 – Kevin Gausman
81.2 – Daniel Straily
80.9 – Danny Duffy
80.1 – Drew Pomeranz

How many of those men also posted an 80 percent mark in 2015? None.

How many men who posted an 80 percent mark in 2015 repeated in 2016? None.

Here is the leaderboard from 2015. How did they perform in 2016?

The average pullback for the 14 men who posted a 78.0 or better mark in 2015 was (-5.32) in 2016. Remember that in 2017 for those that were on the 2016 leaderboard.

Here are the 13 men who threw at least 162 innings and failed to record a mark of 70-percent in 2016. Odd are pretty solid that these 13 men will see improvement in ’17. Here is that list.

When in doubt, on draft day, just remind yourself… strikeouts, no walks and ground balls.