Never Draft a Closer Early

Some folks take the plunge on relievers early.

Some folks don’t worry about relievers until the middle rounds.

Some folks don’t even bother with the position as they believe they can just grab guys in the closing rounds or off waivers and be fine when it comes to saves.

What’s the right way to attack the position? Let’s take a look.
 

LEAGUE HISTORY

In 2014 there were 1,263 saves, an average of 42.1 per team.

There were 49 men who saved five games.
There were 39 who saved 10 games.
There were 30 who saved 15 games.
There were 25 who saved 20 games.
There were 21 who saved 25 games.
There were 17 who saved 30 games.
There were 13 who saved 35 games.
There were 7 who saved 40 games.
There were 4 who saved 45 games.

 In 2015 there were 1,292 saves, an average of 43.0 per team.

There were 47 men who saved five games.
There were 37 who saved 10 games.
There were 32 who saved 15 games.
There were 28 who saved 20 games.
There were 24 who saved 25 games.
There were 21 who saved 30 games.
There were 12 who saved 35 games.
There were 5 who saved 40 games.
There were 2 who saved 45 games.

In 2016 there were 1,276 saves, an average of 42.5 per team.

There were 53 men who saved five games.
There were 42 who saved 10 games.
There were 32 who saved 15 games.
There were 22 who saved 20 games.
There were 20 who saved 25 games.
There were 16 who saved 30 games.
There were 12 who saved 35 games.
There were 6 who saved 40 games.
There were 4 who saved 45 games.

Here are the averages over the last three seasons:

50 saved five games.
39 saved 10 games.
31 saved 15 games.
25 saved 20 games.
22 saved 25 games.
18 saved 30 games.
12 saved 35 games.
6 saved 40 games.
3 saved 45 games.

PLAYER HISTORY

Let’s get into this a bit.

The table below speaks to the number of relievers who have reached a certain save total in at least back-to-back seasons. The numbers are a lot lower than you may think.

Takeaways...

No one has saved 40 games in each of the past three years. Mark Melancon and Jeurys Familia are the only pitchers in baseball with 40 saves in each of the last two years.

There are only seven men who have saved 30 games in each of the past three seasons: Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Mark Melancon, David Robertson and Francisco Rodriguez.

Only seven men have 25 saves in each the last three seasons. Obviously, that list is the same as the 30-save list.

The only two men with 30 saves in four-straight seasons: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel.

The only three men with 25 saves in four-straight seasons: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel.

Let’s be honest for a moment. You draft closers hoping for 30 saves. You expect 25 saves. Therefore, is it really exciting to say that a guy posted 20 saves in back-to-back seasons? During the last three seasons, there has been an average of 25 men saving 20 games. Amazingly, less than a third of those men – eight – have saved 20 games in each of the last three years. The eighth man is Zach Britton.

Let me write that again.

Eight men have saved 20-games each of the last three years.

If we drop that mark to 15 saves the number only grows to 12 men.

For goodness sakes. Only six men have saved 15-games each of the last four seasons: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Mark Melancon, Jonathan Papelbon and Fernando Rodney.

Hell, do you know how many relievers have 15 saves each of the past five years? The answer is five: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon and Fernando Rodney.

The data is clear.

Closers do NOT post huge save totals year after year.

Closers infrequently post even moderate save totals – let’s say 20 – year after year. Look at the above data again. Guys simply do not post big save totals year-after-year. They do not.

TEAM VS. PLAYER

Let’s take a look at both of the above and shove ‘em together.

Let’s put those numbers into the context of fantasy leagues.

In a 10-team league the last three years...

Each team has had an average of 1.8 relievers with 30 saves.
Each team has had an average of 2.2 relievers with 25 saves.
Each team has had an average of 2.5 relievers with 20 saves.
Each team has had an average of 3.2 relievers with 15 saves.

Of course, that is assuming each team has an equal share, which of course they do not.

In a 12-team league the last three years...

Each team has had an average of 1.5 relievers with 30 saves.
Each team has had an average of 1.8 relievers with 25 saves.
Each team has had an average of 2.1 relievers with 20 saves.
Each team has had an average of 2.7 relievers with 15 saves.

In a 15-team league the last three years...

Each team has had an average of 1.2 relievers with 30 saves.
Each team has had an average of 1.5 relievers with 25 saves.
Each team has had an average of 1.7 relievers with 20 saves.
Each team has had an average of 2.1 relievers with 15 saves.

You can see how the list of available players who produce saves dissipates relatively quickly when you start to participate in deeper leagues.

WHAT DO YOU DO WITH RELIEVERS?

Some reasons to be cautious with relievers, in addition to what you’ve already read, of course:

Pitchers blow out their arms quite frequently.

Pitchers can struggle and it’s anyone’s guess as to how much patience a manager will have with a struggling ninth-inning arm.

What happens if a closer on Opening Day blows his first two chances and allows seven runs? Maybe the set-up man runs away with the job, even if the former closer pitches well over the course of the season. Remember what happened to Ken Giles, who took months last season to convince the Astros he was worth giving another shot to in the ninth inning?

We don’t really know who will or won’t rack up saves. Why? Multiple reasons, really. (1) Will the manager trust the pitcher in the ninth inning? (2) How many pitchers will a manager call upon in the ninth inning? Will he choose one man or will he play the lefty/righty match-up game? (3) Will the manager be comfortable calling upon the same reliever in back-to-back days or in three-straight? (4) Who will be traded? Will the current closer for one team become the set-up man for another? Will the closer who is headed to the new team be taking over the ninth inning, thereby demoting another closer? Which set-up men will be tasked with taking over the ninth inning in the open spot? (5) Finally, a big one. Will the game score allow for there to be a save? Remember, saves can only be accrued if a very narrow definition of the game situation is present.

Rule 10.20 in the Official Rule Book states:

Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions: 
(1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and 
(2) He is not the winning pitcher; and 
(3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions: 
- (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or 
- (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or 
- (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game.

And then there is still the question of performance I have yet to really address. The volatility with relievers is pretty obvious to anyone who tracks the position. You should be more focused on the skills of a hurler than their role in March.

The bottom line is that it’s extremely risky to spend an early round draft pick, or big auction dollars, on a closer. You need saves to compete in traditional 5x5 fantasy leagues, but relievers are a very volatile own and saves are a precious commodity that can go up and down like the price of gold on the stock market. It’s not wrong to roster Chapman, Jansen or Britton, in fact you might think they are “locks” and therefore worth a heavy investment compared to others at the position, but understand that recent history is very suggestive of “spending big” is less likely to work out than you think. There are always diamonds in the rough who pop up each year, and if you’re smart, diligent and a bit fortunate it might just make sense to avoid spending big on the men who are asked to get the last out of the game.