This strategy piece should be obvious, despite what I wrote about taking closers early in the SiriusXM Fantasy draft last season (I rostered Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman in 6/7 rounds, something I normally wouldn't do). There is no position in fantasy baseball that is more volatile than the closers spot. The following closers weren't even drafted in most 12-team mixed leagues last season (saves in parenthesis): Zach Britton (37), Mark Melancon (33), Hector Rondon (29), Jenrry Mejia (28), Cody Allen (24), Sean Doolittle (22), Jake McGee (19), Santiago Casilla (19), Joe Smith (15). Of course, you would have drafted them if you read the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. Well, other than Britton.
Here is the list of "closers" in March who failed in 2014: Ernesto Frieri (11), Jason Grilli (12), Jim Johnson (2), John Axford (10), Rex Brothers (zero), Grant Balfour (12), Jose Veras (1), Tommy Hunter (11), Jim Henderson (zero), Matt Lindstrom (6).
The plain and simple truth can be laid out in the following statements.
There is no way to predict which arm a manager will use in the 9th inning.
There is certainly no way to predict who a team will turn to if option #1 fails.
Managers often use pitchers they "trust" in the 9th inning.
That does not mean they will use their most skilled pitcher in the 9th inning.
Spending big on closers may be a mistake (for a contrary review read Howard Bender's piece called the Closer Conundrum). While you can feel confident in Aroldis Chapman or Greg Holland, they are so expensive on draft day in most instances that it often makes more sense to use your limited resources to fill other needs. Take a look at the above list again. There were nine guys that weren't drafted in your league that had at least 15 saves last year. Depending on when you drafted, and how many teams were in your league, guys like Francisco Rodriguez (44), LaTroy Hawkins (23), Chad Qualls (19), Joakim Soria (18) might have also been undrafted. That's simply astounding volatility.
History lesson.
How many players had 20 saves last year? 25
How many had 20 saves the last two years? 15
How many had 20 saves the last three years? 10
How many had 20 saves the last four years? Three (Kimbrel, Papelbon & Street)
Is twenty saves even a great season? Of course not.
I would be remiss if I didn't note that it's not like 2014 was some strange season. The turnover occurs every single year. The sun comes up, I charm women on a daily basis and managers constantly juggle the arms they use in the 9th inning. It's just a given.