This strategy piece should be obvious, despite what I wrote about taking closers early in the SiriusXM Fantasy draft last season (I rostered Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman in 6/7 rounds, something I normally wouldn't do). There is no position in fantasy baseball that is more volatile than the closers spot. The following closers weren't even drafted in most 12-team mixed leagues last season (saves in parenthesis): Zach Britton (37), Mark Melancon (33), Hector Rondon (29), Jenrry Mejia (28), Cody Allen (24), Sean Doolittle (22), Jake McGee (19), Santiago Casilla (19), Joe Smith (15). Of course, you would have drafted them if you read the 2014 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. Well, other than Britton.
Here is the list of "closers" in March who failed in 2014: Ernesto Frieri (11), Jason Grilli (12), Jim Johnson (2), John Axford (10), Rex Brothers (zero), Grant Balfour (12), Jose Veras (1), Tommy Hunter (11), Jim Henderson (zero), Matt Lindstrom (6).
The plain and simple truth can be laid out in the following statements.
There is no way to predict which arm a manager will use in the 9th inning.
There is certainly no way to predict who a team will turn to if option #1 fails.
Managers often use pitchers they "trust" in the 9th inning.
That does not mean they will use their most skilled pitcher in the 9th inning.
Spending big on closers may be a mistake (for a contrary review read Howard Bender's piece called the Closer Conundrum). While you can feel confident in Aroldis Chapman or Greg Holland, they are so expensive on draft day in most instances that it often makes more sense to use your limited resources to fill other needs. Take a look at the above list again. There were nine guys that weren't drafted in your league that had at least 15 saves last year. Depending on when you drafted, and how many teams were in your league, guys like Francisco Rodriguez (44), LaTroy Hawkins (23), Chad Qualls (19), Joakim Soria (18) might have also been undrafted. That's simply astounding volatility.
History lesson.
How many players had 20 saves last year? 25
How many had 20 saves the last two years? 15
How many had 20 saves the last three years? 10
How many had 20 saves the last four years? Three (Kimbrel, Papelbon & Street)
Is twenty saves even a great season? Of course not.
I would be remiss if I didn't note that it's not like 2014 was some strange season. The turnover occurs every single year. The sun comes up, I charm women on a daily basis and managers constantly juggle the arms they use in the 9th inning. It's just a given.
Player News
Padres activated RHP Sean Reynolds off the 15-day injured list.
Reynolds will get a chance to make his season debut after being placed on the injured list on Opening Day with a right foot strain. He should operate in the middle innings for the Padres now that he’s healthy enough to do so.
Tyler Glasnow (shoulder) will start playing catch Friday.
Glasnow will join fellow injured starter Blake Snell in beginning his throwing program Friday. The 31-year-old was placed on the injured list shoulder inflammation April 28 — the same designation as Snell — and there’s no timetable yet for when he will be able to return.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Blake Snell (shoulder) will start playing catch Friday.
As will Tyler Glasnow (shoulder). The Dodgers have been without Snell since the start of April with shoulder inflammation, and the club has taken things slow with the southpaw in hopes of having him right for the grueling summer months. He’ll need to make at least a couple of rehab starts before returning but it sounds like the 32-year-old could be back on the bump before June comes to an end.
Clayton Kershaw (toe, knee) may make his next start in the majors after Sunday’s rehab start for Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Kershaw was brilliant in his last rehab start, and while that came against short-season hitters in Arizona, the 37-year-old has reportedly looked the part while rehabbing to rejoin the Los Angeles rotation. This is no longer one of the very best pitchers in baseball, but with that lineup behind him he’s going to get plenty of win chances, and he’s shown that he still can keep hitters off-balance over the last two seasons.
Reds recalled INF Rece Hinds from Triple-A Louisville.
You might remember Hinds for pulling a Kyren Paris in his first stint of MLB action, only to pull a Kyren Paris a few weeks later and plummet back to earth. The 24-year-old plays in a friendly park and offers quality power, but he’s far from a guarantee to put up fantasy fireworks in 2025.
Reds placed INF Noelvi Marte on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 5, with a left oblique strain.
Marte will miss a week-plus — at minimum — while recovering from the strain. The former top prospect should be back by the end of May if there are no setbacks at the latest, but oblique strains can have a wide variety of timelines depending on the severity. Rece Hinds is heading up from Louisville to take Marte’s roster spot.