Mock Draft Army - Early ADP Numbers

With the Super Bowl and all its festivities this past week, it was a relatively quiet time for the Mock Draft Army. Only two drafts were held – a 12-team mixed and a 15-team mixed – so the ADP below doesn’t have much in the way of player movement. Still, there are a few interesting observations to be made with regard to the overall numbers, including the emergence of a number of players who weren’t even drafted in the array of mocks we held previously. Here are a few thoughts on the current ADP numbers, along with a list of some of those newly drafted players and why the sudden emergence.

Players Going Too Early?

It’s not that I am against Paul Goldschmidt going No. 1 overall. I’m just a little surprised. Is there a significant drop-off in power after the first tier of first basemen? Yes, there is. But when you need five outfielders and you see that roughly 25-30 percent of the selections in the first five rounds is made up of outfielders, one would think that the position becomes a bit of a priority. Goldy is certainly a tremendous talent and I don’t want to overlook the stolen base contribution, but are we maybe putting too much emphasis on those stolen bases? If he only swiped five bags this season but maintained the rest of his numbers, would we downgrade him in the first base rankings? Probably not. It’s not like you look to the position for speed in the first place. Just food for thought.

I love that everyone is so confident in Carlos Correa. It’s not that I’m not, but putting so much weight on 432 plate appearances seems to be contrary to what we’ve learned about small sample sizes over the years. He’s got the potential to stand out as a special talent, but if there’s a drop-off in power, does he really remain a first-round draft choice? Look at those ISO numbers throughout his time as a professional. They don’t exactly indicate an expected increase, do they? They don’t even indicate him sustaining his current level of power. If he can bang 20 home runs in a full season while maintaining the rest of his other numbers, then I will happily jump on board, but with pitchers making the necessary adjustments to him in his second year, the onus is on him to prove me wrong. If he doesn’t, there are going to be a lot of disgruntled fantasy owners.

Anyone who has read my work or listened to me on SiriusXM Fantasy Sport Radio knows that I am a huge sucker for a young, power-hitting third baseman. I’ve been through them all in recent years, from Adrian Beltre to Eric Chavez to Evan Longoria to Garrett Atkins. And yes, you can certainly add Nolan Arenado to the list. However, after reading Ray Flowers’ player profile on him in the 2016 MLB Draft Guide, I do have some pause. Not that I think he’s going to tank, but I’m starting to believe that my enthusiasm should be tempered just a bit.

I’m on the fence, Maikel Franco. On the fence.

Come on. Really? Corey Seager is a top-40 player? He may have talent but no rookie should be going that high without having proven himself.

The injury history of Anthony Rendon cannot be ignored. Yes, the multi-position eligibility is a nice bonus, but it doesn’t matter how many positions you can play if you can’t stay on the field. His injury history dates back to his days in the minors and he’s missed plenty of time on multiple levels. He could be a great guy to own, but based on what we’ve seen, I think I would rather fish a little deeper in that second base pond.

Players Possibly Overlooked?

Anyone who won money at MLB DFS last year will tell you – don’t sleep on Gerardo Parra. Not only has he proven himself to be a strong hitter against right-handed pitching, but he now has the Coors Effect working in his favor.

While everyone else is still looking to add Billy Hamilton, keep Oakland outfielder Billy Burns on draft watch-list. The 26 year old switch-hitter is slated to be the team’s starting center fielder and has a career 86.2-percent success rate on the bases, dating back to 2011 when he first appeared in Low-A ball.

Another article you should check out in the Draft Guide involves drafting Domingo Santana. Many are being scared off due to the Brewers’ acquisition of Rymer Liriano, but Santana has the potential to be a bit of a force from the middle of that lineup this season. The 23 year old still has developing power and if he can limit the strikeouts, he should have little to no trouble fending off Liriano who always seems to shoot himself in the foot each year.

New Faces in the ADP

Brandon Moss, 1B/OF STL – A lot is going to depend on how he hits in comparison to Matt Adams as both seem to be vying for the left-handed bat of the first base platoon. The 32 year old veteran has a problem with strikeouts, but he is also a good bet for 20-plus home runs. He’s averaged almost 24 home runs per year over the last four seasons.

Aaron Altherr, OF PHI – The 25-year old has shown some power potential and is currently penciled in to start in right field for the Phillies this season. He does have some plate discipline issues and his swinging-strike rate can get up there, but if he can harness that, he could be someone to watch for in the later rounds of deeper drafts.

Jonathan Villar, SS MIL – He could have been the biggest beneficiary of the Jean Segura trade as it opens the door for the underrated speedster to enter the season as the Brewers’ starting shortstop. He’s got some shortcomings with the bat that he’ll need to work through and there’s always minor league sensation Orlando Arcia waiting in the wings, but if you’re looking for cheap speed in the middle infield to open the year, Villar could be your guy.

J.J. Hoover, RP CIN – So far, he’s penciled in as the guy who will get the first shot at the vacant closer’s job in Cincinnati, so there is value potential there for now. Of course, he’s going to need to shine this spring if he wants to hold the gig and walk into the 2016 season with the job in-hand. He’s blown the opportunity before, so keep your expectations low, but if the rest of the closers are gone from the draft board, he’s someone to keep in mind.

Jeremy Jeffress, RP MIL – It could come down to either him or Will Smith for the closer’s job in Milwaukee and while many have Smith as the favorite, Jeffress has an electric arm and is a right-hander, so there is certainly potential here.

If you would like to be a part of the Mock Draft Army, simply email me at the Army's new email address -- MockDraftArmy@yahoo.com. Now here's a look at the current numbers:

Mock Draft Army ADP

**as always, for a copy of the ADP in a sortable, color-coded Excel format, just send the Army an email and we'll have one sent out to you ASAP.