Let’s talk about Dave Roberts.
Roberts arguably has two top five starting pitchers in his rotation right now in Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood, but their average number of pitches thrown per start is significantly lower than pitchers in similar company.
The more egregious offense has been Robert’s handling of Wood. Among the 108 pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched as a starter this season, Wood ranks fifth in K-BB%, second in ERA and first in xFIP. But of those same 108 pitchers, exactly 100 of them are averaging more pitches per start than Wood. One hundred! Bruce Bochy is letting Matt Cain last longer in games on average than Roberts is with Wood. Oof.
This problem extends past Wood, unfortunately. In the bottom five of average number of pitches thrown per start in our 108-pitcher sample are Dodger starters Kenta Maeda and Brandon McCarthy. Maeda has been roughly average this season, and McCarthy has a 3.12 ERA. They don’t need to be averaging 100 pitches per start, but they’re under-utilized at 85 pitches per start or so.
As a team, the Dodgers are tied for the fifth lowest average number of pitches thrown per start. The only reason they don’t rank dead last in that stat is because they have Kershaw. But Roberts’ quick hook even extends to Kershaw. Kershaw is inarguably one of the four elite pitchers this season in a group with Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber. Kershaw and Kluber are averaging around 100 pitches per start, but Sale and Scherzer are averaging 109 and 107, respectively.
If you were going to make an argument for why Roberts is right to have a quick hook, you would point out that LA has an excellent bullpen. The LA pen ranks second in ERA and third in xFIP. They also haven’t been over-worked with only the 16th most innings pitched so far. That’s largely because LA’s starters are so good. The starters are efficient enough with their relatively low pitch counts that the bullpen isn’t asked to record too many outs.
The quality of the bullpen is a fair point and probably a legitimate reason for Roberts to have a short leash. But the leash is still too short. Other teams with good bullpens aren’t as quick with the hook with good starters.
As mentioned, Sale is averaging 109 pitches per start, which is the highest in the league, and the Red Sox have the third best bullpen ERA in the league. Sale’s rotation-mate Rick Porcello has the third highest average number of pitches thrown per start. Fantasy owners thank you John Farrell for letting your starters rack up extra strikeouts and giving them a better chance of recording a win.
The Diamondbacks also have a good bullpen. They’re one of five teams with a bullpen that has both an ERA and an xFIP under 4.00. Despite good pitchers to turn to in the pen, Torey Lovullo hasn’t been quick to pull his stud pitchers from the game. Robbie Ray ranks seventh in average number of pitches thrown per start, and Zack Greinke also cracks the top 20. Lovullo’s name has popped up in this series several times as a fantasy-friendly manager, and this is just one more instance of it.
Another argument you could make in defense of Roberts is that pitchers fare worse each extra time they go through the opposing lineup. That’s been marginally true for Wood but not so extreme to justify Roberts’ quick hook. Wood has allowed a 105 tOPS+ for his career when facing hitters for a second time in an outing. That means his OPS allowed the second time through is five percent worse than his average OPS allowed. When facing hitters for a third time, he has allowed a 108 tOPS+. This year, he has only faced hitters for a third time in an outing 60 times, but he has held them to a batting average of .167 in those 60 plate appearances. He’s fine, Dave, leave him out there.
Kershaw shows a similar pattern of giving up a bit more the second and third time through the order with a 108 tOPS+ the second time through and a 111 tOPS+ the third time through. But when he’s gone through the order a fourth time, he is almost as good as he is the first time through. Kershaw has faced hitters for a fourth time in an outing 325 times, and he has a tOPS+ of 85 in those 325 PA. When he faces the lineup the first time his tOPS+ is 84. Let him go longer, Dave!
Sadly, there’s no reason to expect this tendency that hurts fantasy value to change this season. Hypothetically, LA’s starters could get a slight bump in fantasy value if the Dodgers suffered some injuries in the bullpen or if their pen simply isn’t as good in future seasons. But as long as LA has quality pitching both in the rotation and in the pen, you can expect Dave Roberts to be a killer of fantasy value.
Thanks, Dave.
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