MLB Fantasy RPV Breakdown: April 6

The fantasy sports landscape is overwrought with “experts” discussing VALUE. The problem is, opinion often becomes mistaken for fact. Five years ago, I wrote the first Fantasy Baseball Black Book using a revolutionary player evaluation system called Relative Position Value (known now as RPV in the industry). Sabermetrics are wonderful, but can weigh us down at times as fantasy owners. It’s not enough to know the value of a player based on his skills. We must understand his value compared to the rest of the players at his position. Moreover, the depth of the positon required in the format will also have an impact on a player’s RPV. In fact, player value can change drastically based on league style, depth and format. The biggest problem fantasy owners make is failing to adjust their player evaluations accordingly. RPV is the tool that does.

The other incredible gift of RPV is revealing the “negative” value of players. Fantasy sports is a simple game stripped down to its core. It’s about me out producing you from as many roster spots as possible. It’s not enough to know one player is better than another. RPV tells you by percentage points just how much one is better from the next. It also illustrates when players fall below the fantasy league average needed to stay productive in a league. Simultaneously, it quantifies position scarcity and allows you to truly understand the definition of value. The proof is in the performance. The Black Book series has gone to No. 1 on Amazon five straight years in the Fantasy Sports genre (holding there for 90-plus days the last two seasons). The success my readers have had speaks for itself.

So let’s look at the equation first for RPV. We begin with the Fantasy League Average (which will vary league to league based on depth/style). Let’s say there are 24 relevant pitchers on a given slate and their Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) on average, as a collective under a scoring system, is 12 points. Next, we take the same FPPG average of specific player. Let’s use Clayton Kershaw as an example and his leading 20-point average per game. To calculate RPV we take Kershaw’s 20, subtract the Fantasy League Average (FLA), 12, then divide by the same FLA 12 (20-12/12 = +66% RPV) The number we’re left with is a +66% RPV, meaning Kershaw is 66% better than the Fantasy League Average pitcher on that slate in terms of value. As we get closer to the FLA the percentages will decrease, and then float into the negative RPV as you go below the FLA.

The challenge in April is that the sample size is too small early on to get a true sense of a reasonable player averages. Normally, one would use the previous season’s player averages as a baseline, but now that FanDuel has changed its scoring system that’s no longer a relevant option for that site. One can use projections, but the strength of RPV is evaluating players on their actual worth, not what their value “could” be that day. Projections can be flawed enough as it is on a season long basis, let alone on a daily version when it comes to MLB.

Here’s a look at the raw RPV for today’s SP slate on DraftKings using last year’s average fantasy points for the pitchers available:

Since Kenta Maeda, Bud Norris, Brandon Finnegan and Juan Nicascio didn’t offer a strong enough sample size from 2015, I’ve used projections to inform the RPV tool out of necessity. You can clearly see the drop off from the top tier (Strasburg and Gray), to the mid-tier and finally below the FLA and the negative RPV players.

Now let’s add the player salaries into the equation to see how cost effective these players are in reality using RPV per Dollar:

What a difference a salary makes, huh? Sonny Gray maintains his cost effectiveness, while Strasburg falls dramatically into the negative in terms of efficiency. Even a mild projection of Juan Nicascio, coming off a hot spring campaign, makes him an incredibly intriguing option at his DK salary. RPV Per Dollar destroys the notion of perceived value and replaces it with definitive value.

RPV per Dollar (RPVPD) is your starting point. It will pare down the field and slash your research time allowing you to focus on a smaller sample of players at each position. From that point, you utilize BVP, WOBA, splits, weather conditions, hot/cold streaks etc. to make your final choices. RPVPD the ultimate tool to begin optimizing your DFS lineups and you’ll only find it here, at Fantasy Alarm.

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.