The following is an excerpt from the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now:
Workload Concerns
By Ivar Anderson
If you have watched or listened to an MLB game recently, you are aware of the emphasis that is put upon any pitcher and the number of pitches they have thrown in a game. While pitch counts and/or inning limits are becoming more prevalent in the amateur levels, so too is the practice of young ballplayers joining several leagues to skirt the protection afforded under the current guidelines. Since October 22, 2013, when Matt Harvey went under the knife, there have been 32 Tommy John surgery (TJS) procedures performed on major league pitchers (the number swells to 92 if we include minor leaguers, with nine of those undergoing the procedure being position players).
Last season, I profiled 26 starting pitchers that had seen a 10 percent increase in the pitches thrown column from 2012 to 2013. Of those 26 pitchers, two ended up needing TJS (Patrick Corbin and Kris Medlen), while six other pitchers from last year’s list went on the DL for significant periods of time (CC Sabathia - knee, Derek Holland - knee, Dillon Gee - strained lat, Doug Fister - strained lat, Joe Kelly - hamstring, and Joe Saunders - ankle). This year the parameters being used to discuss starting pitchers at risk are 120 minimum innings pitched with a 10 percent increase in pitches thrown between 2013 and 2014.
Starting Pitcher | 2013 Team | 2013 Pitches | 2014 Team | 2014 Pitches | Pitch Increase | Percent Increase |
SD | 1981 | SD | 3119 | 1138 | 57.4 | |
BOS/CHW | 2367 | SF | 3632 | 1265 | 53.4 | |
CLE | 2290 | CLE | 3500 | 1210 | 52.8 | |
ARI | 2009 | NYY/ARI | 3044 | 1035 | 51.5 | |
TB | 2103 | TB | 3160 | 1057 | 50.3 | |
CHW | 2202 | CHW | 3298 | 1096 | 49.8 | |
LAA | 2396 | LAA | 3352 | 956 | 39.9 | |
SEA/NYM | 2445 | ATL | 3394 | 949 | 38.8 | |
ATL | 2006 | SF | 2784 | 778 | 38.8 | |
TB | 2707 | DET/TB | 3730 | 1023 | 37.8 | |
BAL | 2192 | BAL | 2977 | 785 | 35.8 | |
MIA | 2256 | MIA | 2941 | 685 | 30.4 | |
MIL | 1995 | MIL | 2534 | 539 | 27.1 | |
LAA | 2386 | KC | 3003 | 617 | 25.9 | |
BAL | 2302 | OAK/CHC | 2796 | 494 | 21.5 |
Anytime you increase your workload by 50 percent from one season to the next, there is a huge level of concern about potential overuse. Ross missed his last starts of the year with a flexor strain. Kluber’s big jump in pitches thrown was partly as a result of his missing time in 2013 with a finger injury. McCarthy has a history of shoulder issues that limited him to 111 and 135 innings in 2012 and 2013.
Archer actually pitched 178.2 innings in 2013 between Triple-A and the majors, so his increase is not nearly as dramatic as his MLB pitch count data suggests. Danks’ increase comes as a result of missing the first two months of 2013 following 2012 shoulder surgery. Of these top six, McCarthy presents the most risk, since he seems to be snake bit when it comes to staying healthy.
There are many more starting pitcher workload breakdowns in the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide
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