MLB DFS Write-Up & Example Lineups: October 4

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

José Berríos (14-8, 3.68 ERA) vs James Paxton (15-6, 3,82 ERA)

Yankee Stadium

Yankees -193, O/U 8.5

Regular Season Series: Yankees 4-2

Kicking off the ALDS between the Twins and Yankees who both won their divisions. The Twins offense was one of the best in baseball all season long while the Yankees ran away with the A.L. East pretty much from the jump without ever looking back all while dealing with injuries to major players like Giancarlo Stanton , Luis Severino and Gary Sánchez for long periods of time.

Pitching

Twins

Berrios set a career high in innings pitched and finished with a career best 3.68 ERA. This will be his first start against the Yankees this season but in three career starts against New York he has a 5.79 ERA. On the road this year Berrios went 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA while striking out 105 over 103 innings. Against RHP this season the Yankees ranked 4^th in wOBA and 2^nd in ISO which could spell for a long day for Berrios.

Yankees

Paxton had an up and down first season with the Yankees as he only managed 150 innings due to injury and finished wit ha 3.82 ERA. When on the mound Paxton was a strikeout machine, posting an 11.1 K/9 but he also had some control issues as his 3.29 BB/9 was his worst mark since 2015. Paxton tossed three shutout innings in his lone appearance against the Twins this season. He only last three innings as he was forced to leave the game due to a knee injury. He will have quite a challenge tonight as he faces a Twins lineup that ranked 1^st in ISO, 2^nd in wOBA & 1^st in average against LHP this season while also leading the league in home runs.

Hitting

Twins

Minnesota’s offense was among the best in recent baseball history as they finished 1^st in home runs, 2^nd in batting average, 2^nd in wOBA & 1^st in ISO this season. They also hammered left-handed pitching with the likes of Nelson Cruz , C.J. Cron , Mitch Garver , Marwin Gonzalez , Max Kepler , Miguel Sanó and Eddie Rosario all hitting over .280 against southpaws this year. Four of those guys all had an OPS over 1.000 off lefties as well with Cruz leading the way with an OPS of 1.207. If making a stack you will want those guys in your lineup without question.

Yankees

Yankees infielder Glyeber Torres hit 29 of his 38 home runs off RHP this season while Gary Sánchez hit 27 of his 34 bombs off righties himself.  Injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton likely kept those two from putting up similar numbers but the Yankees do not need to worry about that right now as they are all in the lineup here tonight. This is not going to be a pitching showdown that is for sure.  If targeting key Yankees tonight I would go DJLM, Judge, Stanton and Torres.

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) vs Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03 ERA)

Dodgers Stadium

Dodgers -156, O/U -7.5

Regular Season Series: Dodgers 5-3

One of these two teams will be representing the National League in the World Series and you can take that to the bank. In terms of total completeness these two rosters have the best overall pitching staffs and I would say complete lineups from top to bottom. Today’s match up is a marquee spot with Strasburg going up against Kershaw. These lineups some of the top young talents in baseball with Cody Bellinger , Juan Soto , Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner . This will be a fun series to watch and from a DFS perspective there are plenty of ways to go so let’s dive in.

Pitching

Nationals

Cy Young contender Stephen Strasburg will take the mound tonight against the Dodgers. Strasburg had himself a career year, setting news highs in wins, strikeouts and WHIP while throwing over 200 innings for the second time in his career. Strasburg faced the Dodgers twice this season, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA while striking out 16 over 13 innings. He will face a Dodgers lineup that is chalk full of left-handed bats and while Strasburg limited lefties to just a .192 average the Dodgers offense ranked 2^nd in wRC+ & wOBA while rankings 1^st in ISO against RHP.

Dodgers

Kershaw began the season on the IL but once he returned to the Dodgers rotation he had spurts of vintage Kershaw and if not for the month of May where he had a 4.22 ERA he would have finished 2019 with an ERA under 3.00. Overall he went 16-5 with an ERA of 3.03 while striking out 189 over 178.1 innings. Kershaw faced the Nationals once this season, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA after allowing two runs over six innings while striking out nine. While having this strong performance he will face a Nationals lineup that ranked 3^rd in team average, 5^th in OPS, 5^th in wOBA and 7^th in wRC+ against LHP.

Hitting

Nationals

As I mentioned above, the Nationals offense is very strong against LHP and that offense lead by the likes of Howie Kendrick who is hitting .376 off southpaws this year but he is obviously not the name you are looking for so don’t worry because Anthony Rendon is also hitting .316 as is Trea Turner . Catcher Kurt Suzuki is hitting .343 against lefties and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .367 off southpaws. Even lefty Juan Soto finds himself hitting .285 against left-handed pitching. There is plenty of power in this lineup and hitters that can hold their own against a Kershaw that himself is not as dominant as he once was despite still being very good. Some top BvP’s here to look at would start with Zimmerman who is 10-for-28 with two doubles and a home run off Kershaw. Rendon is an empty 5-for-19 and Turner is 3-for-19 with a double.

Dodgers

The Dodgers lineup starts and ends with Cody Bellinger who bounced back from a down 2018 to hit .305 with 47 home runs and an OPS of 1.035. Bellinger raked in his home ballpark this season as well, hitting .304 with an OPS of 1.061 while hitting 27 of his 47 home runs. If you are building a lineup against Washington tonight then Bellinger is an absolute must. In terms of BvP you will want to take a look at A.J. Pollock who is 7-for-14 with two doubles, one triple and one home run off Strasburg. Justin Turner has also had some success this off Strasburg, going 4-for-14 with two home runs off him. If you want to look at splits against RHP this season then David Freese is hitting .361 off RHP on the year while Corey Seager is hitting .289 with 13 home runs for those that have yet to be mentioned.