Well, we have a very small five game slate tonight, that might end up turning into a four game slate. There’s some substantial rain heading towards Chicago, putting the Orioles-White Sox contest in jeopardy. Keep an eye on that leading up to game time, because if that game is going to play, there are definitely some bats you are going to want from that one. However, there’s some value in other games as well, so even if that game is a wash, there’s value elsewhere! Without further ado, let’s head into the Value Vault for today’s five, potentially four, game slate!
Both Sites
Justin Upton , OF LAA ($2,900 FD/$3,600 DK) - Upton has struggled this year in terms of batting average, hitting a measly .204 on the year. He does have 10 home runs and he hit leadoff the past three games for the Angels. In those three contests, he’s 5-for-14 (.357 AVG) with two home runs, three runs scored and three RBI. He’s also no stranger to Oakland’s Chris Bassit, going 4-for-13 off him. Bassitt has been solid this year, including in his last start against the Angels (2 ER across 7.2 IP) but he is 0-2 with a 4.07 ERA in four home starts this year, and Upton could be a solid piece against the Oakland right-hander.
Andrew Vaughn, OF CWS ($2,600 FD/$2,500 DK) - Vaughn against a lefty, folks. It’s as easy as that. In 2021, he has a .324 average with a whopping 1.217 OPS against southpaws. Vaughn also has a .823 OPS specifically in home contests, and Bruce Zimmerman has served up an .876 OPS to right-handed hitters this year. Chicago feasts on lefties, and Vaughn is going to be a popular play tonight, especially at his price point. However, keep an eye on the weather, as there is some substantial precipitation in the Chicago area this evening.
Nate Lowe , 1B TEX ($2,600 FD/$3,500 DK) - Some of the stench on Seattle’s Chris Flexen is a bit overblown, due to his disastrous last outing. If you take away the San Diego meltdown, Flexen has a 3.46 ERA (3.64 FIP) on the year. However, the San Diego game did happen and the fact remains that Flexen doesn’t miss bats. When Texas, Lowe included, makes contact, good things can happen, as the Rangers have the seventh-highest average exit velocity as a team in all of baseball. Lowe is riding a five-game hit streak and he has an .830 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2021. Also, if you like home/road splits, Lowe’s batting average and OPS are 66 and 220 points higher on the road compared to at his home park.
FanDuel
Kyle Seager , 3B SEA ($2,800 FD) - Seager’s BvP numbers are quite impressive against Kolby Allard. How does 5-for-11 with two home runs sound? It sounds good to me for this cheap, cheap price on FanDuel! Allard has a 5.40 ERA and 2.00 WHIP on the road this season, and Seager has hit safely in six of his last seven contests. Seager’s numbers at home aren’t overly impressive, but I’ll trust the BvP data here, especially at a sub-$3k price tag.
Yermín Mercedes, C CWS ($2,600 FD) - Big time weather concerns here, but if things clear out, Mercedes is in a smash spot. Mercedes has crushed lefties this year, to the tune of a .450 average and 1.138 OPS. Furthermore, at home, he has an .848 OPS! Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmerman has reverse splits, as lefties hit him better than righties, but to be fair, righties are still successful with a .292 batting average and .876 OPS. Again, monitor the weather here, as this has the largest postponement/delay risk on the main slate.
David Fletcher , 2B LAA ($2,600) - Fletcher is 7-for-15 in his career off Oakland’s Chris Bassitt , and he’s riding a solid four game hit streak, going 5-for-12 in that span. Fletcher doesn’t carry much pop, as seen by his .033 ISO and 1.88 GB/FB rate, but in a matchup he’s familiar with, even at the bottom order, he could prove quite valuable as he turns the lineup over for Los Angeles today. Pairing him with Justin Upton could be a sneaky mini-stack on a very small slate.
Josh Rojas, OF ARI ($2,500) - How do you get to Carlos Martínez ? Well, in 2021, it’s been left-handed hitters, as they have posted a .247 batting average against him. Martinez has a 4.13 ERA on the road this year, but Arizona has a lot of left-handed hitters, including Rojas, that feast on righties. Rojas is riding a six-game hit streak, and against righties this year, he has a .303 average and .879 OPS. Also, at home, Rojas has a .305 average and .881 OPS. Martinez has allowed seven earned runs in his last 11 innings of work, as he struggled against the Cubs and Rockies, and he’s not striking anyone out this year. Pitching to contact against the lefties in the Arizona lineup could make for a tough day on the veteran right-hander.
DraftKings
Adolis García, OF TEX ($3,600) - The home run bug hasn’t hurt Chris Flexen too much this year, but he’s coming off his worst start of the year and Garcia has been destructive to opposing pitchers of late. He’s striking out a bit more than one would like, but during this six-game hit streak he’s enjoying, he has five home runs, five runs scored and 11 RBI. Garcia has a .991 OPS against righties this season and a whopping 1.072 OPS on the road in 2021. Flexen has 1.11 HR/9 on the year, but Garcia’s 10.0 AB/HR presents a big problem for the right-hander who hardly misses bats (13.5 K%).
Pavin Smith, 1B ARI ($3,600) - Smith has been lost against lefties this year, but good thing it’s a righty on the bump today! Carlos Martínez ’s numbers are worse against left-handed hitters than righties, and Smith has a quality .291 average and .764 OPS against righties in 2021. Smith has hit safely in six straight games, homering once, scoring four times and driving in two runs in the process. Smith was struggling a bit for the first two-thirds of the month, hitting just .232 from May 1 to May 19, but he is hitting .360 with a 139 wRC+ in this six game stretch.
Anthony Santander , OF BAL ($3,300) - Santander has been phenomenal since returning from injury, hitting .385 (10-for-26) with one home run, five doubles, three runs scored and three RBI. He has a .757 OPS against righties in 2021, and he has an impressive .295 average and .805 OPS on the road this year. Chicago’s Dylan Cease has allowed righties to hit .256 this year and while Cease has been impressive this year, he has allowed eight earned runs with nine walks in his last 15 innings of work. Santander is simply too cheap on DraftKings, however, there are some significant weather concerns with this contest, so keep an eye on the weather in Chicago leading up to game time.