Oftentimes DFS players, especially the new ones, will keep trying to force cheap starters in bad situations to load up on hitters. This is the worst thing you can do in cash games. In cash games you want to spend up on pitching. Your pitcher is the only player in your lineup who by the end of the night will have a positive or negative score (we hope not).
On a one-pitcher site like FanDuel, if you go cheap and get what you pay for, your night is over. When you pay for a Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw they may be expensive, but also have extensive fantasy game logs. The floor on a stud SP is more often than not higher than the ceiling of the “value” play. On a two-pitcher site like DraftKIngs or Aces this is where you can take a little more risk to try and fit some bats but on FanDuel in cash games you spend up and find value in your bats, not your pitcher.
Shelby Miller is dead to me. Besides the blister on his finger exiting him early, therefore killing my FanDuel GPP lineup and DraftKings lineup in general, he just looked terrible. As much as I like Miller the Cardinals and the Braves both saw this coming. The Cardinals first. It seems like anytime St. Louis trades a young SP you should take warning. If there is one thing they know, it's pitching. They are also smart enough to know when to “cut and run”. Miller was frazzled last night and just didn’t have anything in his arsenal. If he could not turn it around against the bottom feeders of MLB hitting like the Padres in San Diego…he is done.
My cat is also dead to me. The little bastard for no reason just raked me across my hand yesterday when I went to pet him. I have been to other people’s houses who had mean cats and upon leaving I would always tell my wife, “That will be the day I live with and feed something that just attacks me for no reason.”
I guess it is not his fault. He lives in a house with four kids ages 4, 7, 10, and 12 all girls with one on the way (hopefully a boy, please…a boy). The 4-year-old is constantly trying to hit him with something and the 7-year-old I caught trying to jam Q-tips in his ear which I assure you is a key contributor to his dimeanor. But, sadly, you cannot take the mean out of animals in my experience and with a baby on the way Kitty Colvin (very original right?) may have to go to the wayside along with Shelby Miller.
So with a full slate of games and more possible value SP than reliable ones I bring you today's Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
I hate Jon Lester. His demeanor, his comments at times, and that smug look he always has on his face like he is some kind of “tough guy.” But I do love money and that is what Lester is today at home facing the Colorado Rockies. Much like yesterday, I find going against the Rockies in Wrigley Field with the wind blowing in slightly at 5 MPH the way to go in cash games on a one-pitcher site and the top option on two-pitcher sites. The Rockies in 2015 had a .281 wOBA on the road and so far in 2016 are striking out 22.5 percent of the time versus LHP. In 2015 Lester had 14 strikeouts over 8 innings versus the Rockies at home allowing only two earned runs. His price is fair on FanDuel and a bargain on DraftKings and he comes in today as my number one.
Danger Zone
Mark Reynolds is 8-for-36 with a HR and four RBI (.222 Avg.) off of Lester and should start today.
Carlos Gonzalez is 2-for-9 with a HR (.222 Avg.) off of Lester.
Nolan Arenado gets the platoon advantage and is always a danger for a home run.
Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
I cannot remember the last time I started any pitching article with back-to-back SP from the windy city. Jose Quintana gets a positive park shift in Tampa Bay facing a Rays team that is currently ninth in MLB in strikeouts versus LHP doing so at an enticing rate of 21.7 percent. The Rays also have a low .244 wOBA over 108 plate appearances this season versus LHP and a low .208 avg. at home. On April 5, Quintana struck out seven Athletics (who can be tough to strikeout) over 5 2/3 innings allowing two earned runs and currently has a K/9 of 9.26 and I see no way the White Sox pitching does not dominate again today. Tropicana field was 17th in MLB in 2015 in runs-scored and I see that number dropping. His price on FanDuel is more than fair but slightly expensive on DraftKings and if you do not like Lester you should take a serious look at Quintana. My one concern is Matt Moore is capable of shutting down a team if he is on which could seriously put the win in doubt if we go bullpen to bullpen in this one.
Danger Zone
Steve Pearce is 3-for-6 with a HR (.500 Avg.) lifetime off of Quintana.
Logan Forsythe is four-for-five with a HR, a double, and five RBI (.800 Avg.) lifetime off of Quintana.
Evan Longoria has the ability to go deep on LHP and is 3-for-8 (.375 Avg.) off of Quintana.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
Before I get started I just want to say I am not a big Gio Gonzalez guy. I have seen him pitch at Citi Field more than once. But, it is hard to ignore any LHP facing the Phillies right now. Not only are the Phils striking out 33.7 percent of the time over 92 plate appearances they also cannot hit. They have a .229 wOBA and amazingly low .148 batting average versus LHP this season. In his one outing versus the equally horrible Braves (but still better than the Phillies) Gonzalez struck out four batters over six innings with three hits and no runs scored. Over the last three seasons Gio has a 2.92 ERA versus Philly with 26 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. He is my least favorite of the three cash game plays but should have lower ownership than the two above.
Danger Zone
Freddy Galvis is 8-for-26 with a HR and two doubles (.308 Avg.) off of Gio lifetime.
Darin Ruf is eight-for-23 with three HR, two doubles, and nine RBI (.348 Avg.) off of Gio lifetime. Ouch.
There are a few other hitters with positive BVP due to extensive history but nothing particularly scary. My biggest concern with Gio is his lack of ability to give you eight innings on the mound. You are looking at five-to-seven at the most.
Sometimes good things come in pairs (Cash and GPP).
Keep in mind the pitchers in this section are better GPP plays on FanDuel and what I consider the best cash game plays to pair with one of the pitchers above on DraftKings and other two-pitcher sites.
Juan Nicasio, Pittsburgh Pirates
Two pitches or not I really love Juan Nicasio today. But, I can tell you now that I will have zero exposure to him and I absolutely hope he gets lit up. At this point you must be asking yourself why I have him listed then? It is all personal I assure you. In my highest stake seasonal league my friend Brian Ambos (who also happens to be my stiffest competition) has him. For that reason and that reason only I hope Nicasio gives up 12 runs in the first inning. Would I throw in a Brewers stack? Hell no. Our league is very competitive and even the best expert would leave humbled.
Nicasio in his last outing absolutely got exposed against a tough Detroit offense. It was apparent in that outing that the lack of the third pitch to go to in bad situations will take its toll on him against better teams. Luckily today he is facing a Brewers team he could beat with one pitch. He gets a positive park shift at home in PNC Park (19th in MLB in 2015 in runs-scored) facing a Brewers team that is striking out 26.9 percent of the time versus RHP with a .316 wOBA. The Brewers also have a low .189 avg. on the road which is the lowest in MLB. RHB are hitting only .190 so far this season off of Nicasio and the Brewers are loaded with them. His price is severely depressed and I cannot think of a better chance for him to shine again, or flop.
Danger Zone
Clear sailing as far as BVP history is concerned. The danger is Nicasio.
Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
Do not let Patrick Corbin’s 0-1 record or 3.46 ERA bother you in the least. In his first outing of the season he was lucky enough to draw Coors field. We all know that story for even the elite SP. In his second start versus a tough Dodgers team (Go Dodgers!) in the pitcher friendly park of Los Angeles, Corbin pitched six innings surrendering only one run. The thing I do not like is his K/9 so far is terrible, but on the positive his Ground Ball rate is over 50 percent. Even though his K/9 is currently slightly less than five his past history unless he has lost it says it should be closer to seven. The Padres are still terrible but the reality is Shelby Miller is just more terrible. San Diego is striking out 21.4 percent of the time versus LHP and have a .306 wOBA with a low .186 home avg. I am not the kind of guy who runs 10 lineups but I do usually do at least two per site and Corbin will make one of them.
Danger Zone
Brett Wallace, Matt Kemp, and Alexi Amarista all have slightly positive BVP in a small sample size but no home runs and only two RBI combined. All signs point to Corbin having a great outing.
Steven Matz, New York Mets
Who’s got the Matz? What happened? Everyone was all about the Matz? Crickets? Really? Well let’s not over react to his last outing where he got absolutely got mashed to the tune of seven earned runs in 1 2/3 innings versus the Miami Marlins. Even though his ERA is a whopping 37.80 and he sunk me in a few seasonal leagues along with Taylor Jungmann I still like him. The thing is Steven Matz had around 10 days’ rest (I think) prior to his start after a great spring. That long rest period has sunk more than one SP out of the gate. Why not a youngster like Matz? Now this play is more of a GPP on all sites but could be used in cash games if you insist on a two-pitcher site. In 2015 Matz had a 2.27 ERA over 35 2/3 innings with 34 strikeouts. I honestly believe that is the Matz we can expect at some point. Today he gets another chance facing a Cleveland team struggling versus LHP on the young season. They are striking out 28 percent of the time with a low .254 wOBA and pathetic .214 avg. Matz does have the stuff but still is not for the faint of heart as he could very well likely implode again today although highly unlikely.
Danger Zone
The only history here is Marlon Bird who is one-for-three with one K versus Matz. So this one remains to be seen. The danger here is the youth of Matz and what his ability will be to bounce back from being shell shocked.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
This slate is chalk full of GPP plays today. Tons of young cheap pitchers with little history who have all had one or two good outings. Kenta Maeda I believe is the biggest GPP even though most do not see it that way. The problem is as a Dodgers fan I can tell you more than once I watched San Francisco dismantle Dodgers SP. This all started in 1951 when Bobby Thompson hit a home run off of Ralph Branca eliminating the Brooklyn Dodgers. Branca was never the same. I also might add I was not around for that one but have watched hundreds of vintage Dodgers games online at 4 am.
Yesterday I said I should punch myself in the face for writing about Ricky Nolasco. Well consider my eye blackened. I did use him in the $3 Moonshot on DraftKings with Jake Arrieta and managed to somehow win $8.
Nick Tropeano, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
For some reason this week in FAAB I totally forgot about Nick Tropeano. For a buck I should have took a flyer. In his one start versus the Oakland Athletics on April 11th he pitched five scoreless innings while striking out six batters while allowing zero earned runs. A high K/9 in the small sample facing a horrible offense drives this pick. The Twins are striking out 27 percent of the time versus RHP with a .288 wOBA and low .205 avg. at home. His minor league numbers all show a decent K/9 that ranges between seven and 10 going back to 2011 at all levels. All of this says he could dominate again today even though he does not get the greatest pitchers park in Minnesota. For the near minimum salary, I can tell you know I will be using him in GPPs on both of the major sites.
Danger Zone
Well it is certainly not the Twins. If he was a LHP I would be slightly more concerned with Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, and Miguel Sano (waiting to bust out). If anything inexperience will be his worst enemy.
Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
You have to admit that although he had a few rough spots in his last outing Aaron Sanchez looks pretty damn awesome. Today he gets a tough matchup facing a Boston Red Sox team striking out 20.3 percent of the time with a decent .346 wOBA versus RHP. The Sox also hit well in Fenway batting .286 at home. Sanchez does however have 13 strikeouts over his last 13 innings with a low 1.38 ERA. These Red Sox-Blue Jays games are highly unpredictable regardless of park and anytime you take any pitcher in this matchup you take on a ton of risk. Both offenses can absolutely light a pitcher up sending him to the showers in the third inning. Although I find Sanchez to have a ton of upside his risk today is equally as high making him a GPP play only for sure.
Danger Zone
Although no one playing today has a HR off of Sanchez (Pablo Sandoval) several Red Sox players have favorable batting averages versus Sanchez. The Red Sox are batting .259 in 58 at-bats versus Sanchez with five RBI. Worth a stab for sure.
| Name | Team | W | L | ERA | G | IP | ER | HR | BB | SO | K/9 | K% | GB% | FB% | FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 1 | 0 | 2.77 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6.23 | 18.4% | 44.7% | 23.7% | $10,500 | $9,600 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6.0 | 17.4% | 44.4% | 55.6% | $8,900 | $9,000 |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 1 | 0 | 2.31 | 2 | 11.2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9.26 | 25.0% | 39.4% | 30.3% | $8,300 | $9,200 |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 0 | 1 | 37.8 | 1 | 1.2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5.4 | 7.7% | 55.6% | 33.3% | $7,700 | $7,100 |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | 1 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11.0 | 28.2% | 30.4% | 43.5% | $7,400 | $6,100 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 3.46 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4.85 | 13.7% | 51.2% | 34.1% | $7,100 | $8,300 |
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 1.38 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9.0 | 26.5% | 60.6% | 24.2% | $6,700 | $6,200 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10.8 | 26.1% | 28.6% | 50.0% | $5,400 | $6,400 |
Good luck today and be sure your catchers are playing. Sunday's can be tough in that respect if you are new to this.
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
You can also hear me on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday mornings at 6:45 am on SiriusXm Fantasy Sports Radio Channel 210, XM 87 taking a first look at the DFS MLB slate.