A critical look back at some pre-season analysis and some lessons learned from same highlight this week’s Week That Was.

September is the month when fantasy sports writers do double duty.  Fantasy baseball pennant races demand continued analysis while the start of the NFL season has the 50 Million fantasy football players clamoring for intel and analysis.  On the football side of things, I am writing a weekly column that Monday morning quarterbacking Jeff Mans’ predictions.  That got me thinking – why not write a baseball piece assessing some preseason analysis of yours truly?  There have to be some good lessons to be learned right?  Well, let us see what we learn from what I got right [may as well start positive!] . . . .

Chris Davis:  In the FantasyAlarm.com Draft Guide Orioles preview, I penned this:  “Chris Davis will be undervalued as people look at his drop from 53 HR to 26 and his paltry .196 batting average.  Smart owners however will see a guy who is a veritable sure thing to hit 30+ HR, will recognize that his PED suspension for Adderall had nothing to do with his huge 2013 and his .247 BABIP will likely return to a number close to his career average of .324 and take his batting average with it.  Will he hit .300 no?  Will he hit for a good enough average for someone with that power?  Yup.” Well, on the year Crush is hitting .260 with 42 dingers and 87 RBI.  Score another for yours truly.  Lesson:  This is a classic case of how you have to combine advanced metrics with human intel.  The advanced metric of BABIP said he was very unlikely and the average would likely rebound.  It did.  The human intel of being allowed to return to his medication regimen said recovery on its way.  It arrived. 

Alex Rodriguez:   In the FantasyAlarm.com Draft Guide New York Yankees preview, I penned this:  “This Year’s Surprise:  Alex Rodriguez.  No, I am not drunk.  ARod has pride.  He will show up motivated and in shape, work hard and will thrive as a DH.  After returning from hip surgery in 2013 he hit a dinger every 22 AB and posted an OBP of almost .350.  He will provide far more production than his price tag.”  Well, yeah me.  ARod has crushed to the tune of 32 HR and 83 RBI and there are still more than two weeks to play.  Lesson: Yes, there were numbers that gave me reason for optimism however sometimes you have to keep in mind that it is still human beings who take the field.  ARod is intensely proud and is exactly the type of guy who would work his tail off to make sure he went out on his terms.

Mike Moustakas:   In the FantasyAlarm.com Draft Guide Royals preview, I penned this:  “Mike Moustakas finally lives up to the hype and blasts 25+ HR at a solid average at a shallow 3B position.  Mouse hit 15 last year plus 5 in the post-season despite being benched often and spending some time on the farm.  Remember, he is only 26 and already has four major league seasons and playoff seasoning under his belt.  If you need more proof, consider this: his contact rate has improved 2 years in a row, his .223 BABIP shows he was very unlucky last year and his k/bb rate has improved each of the last two years.  The time is now.”  While he may not reach precisely 25 bombs, the Moose has been loose in KC this year hitting .278 with 19 HR and 72 RBI.  Lesson: BABIP does show bad luck, especially extreme numbers.  Also, hyped players get discarded too early.  As you sit down this winter looking for diamonds in the rough, guys like Moose who are young but have been hyped for years are good places to mine.

C.J. Cron:  In the FantasyAlarm.com Draft Guide Angels preview, I penned this:  “C.J. Cron will get his ABs and way outproduce his draft day cost.  In 2014, Cron hit 11 HR and drove in 37 in just 242 AB.  Hamilton will miss time and Matt Joyce is just not good enough to hold Cron off.  20+ HR for minimal cost is yours for the taking.”  Thus far, Cron has 14 HR in only 320 AB after being sent to the minors mid-year. He is unlikely to reach 20 HR but if he finishes at 17 or so, I am confident you profited on your investment if you bought Cron in March.  Lesson:  It is important to look at a player’s competition.  Was there a doubt he would have opportunity with the brittle Hamilton and the fading Joyce in the picture?

Yovanni Gallardo:   In the FantasyAlarm.com Draft Guide Angels preview, I penned this:  “Many will shy away from Yovanni Gallardo because Texas is a tough place to pitch, the AL is a tougher place to pitch than the NL and his Ks are well below his 200+ K heyday.  Gallardo will surprise and be a solid starter in AL-only leagues.  Why?  The answer is because the strikeouts have gone down in large part because of a change of approach.  Gallardo now induces groundballs more than 50% of the time – a skill that will serve him well in Texas.  Plus, remember that Gallardo has been a consistent performer in the major leagues – his ERA has been under 4 every year but one since he was 21 years old.”  Gallardo made me look SMART by delivering a 3.41 ERA despite moving from the NL to the AL.  Lesson: Throwing gas and getting those K’s is huge in fantasy but do not discount the guys with elite GB rates. They out-perform their draft day price over and over again. 

Casey McGehee:   Also in the one trick pony column was this bullseye prognostication:  “If you bought Casey at an auction for a buck or two last year, good for you.  His .287 over 616 AB really helped you in the batting average category.  That said, he appears in this column as a warning.  Do NOT expect a repeat.  You know he hit only 4 HR and stole no bases.  Thus, if his average slips, he goes from a one trick pony to a no trick pony.  That is what I see happening.  Casey is going to the Giants and will play in an even worse hitters’ home park.  Moreover, his .339 BABIP is a huge, unrepeatable number for a guy with no speed at all.  You have been warned.”  Well, I nailed this one much to Ray Flowers’ (the Giant fan) dismay.  McGehee couldn’t hit a beach ball with a broom and was sent packing from the Bay area.  Combined with his time back in Miami this year, Casey is hitting .197 with 2 HR.  Lesson:  Just like BABIPs that are way too low show bad luck, BABIPs that are way too high show unsustainable good luck.

And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: “If you are still paying attention to rotisserie baseball columns, you are either (i) in a close battle for your league's championship and insecure about how you've played over the last six months or (ii) a serious roto-baseball junkie looking for one last late-season fix. No matter which category you are in, there's really not a lot to talk about: the National League post-season is nearly set in stone and the American League races are essentially down to a scramble for the right to visit the Bronx in the Wild Card game. Rather than looking for players playing meaningful games, the gambit right now would be to avoid players that are being coddled lest they tire in October. If that last sentence makes Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and the entire Mets pitching staff that's basking in Bartolo Colon's shadow come to mind, then you're already ahead of the game.

If you are looking for a little pick-me-up in late September, Cleveland's outfield has a familiar face that has likely bedeviled roto-owners in the past. With the mid-season trades of Nick Swisher, Brandon Moss, Michael Bourn and David Murphy, the Tribe found themselves with a vacancy in right field. Since nature abhors a vacuum, Lonnie Chisenhall has filled the void, surprisingly revealing himself to be a fine outfielder. For roto-purposes, the position switch has awakened the former 3B's bat and he's been hitting .313 since the All-Star break and may have recently regained his power stroke. The Indians are playing meaningful baseball as they try to sneak into the post-season, so if you need a fifth outfielder or a third baseman, check out the Chis.

It's also worth noting that the Reds have brought up Brandon Finnegan to join the rotation for the last three weeks of the season. The centerpiece of the Johnny Cueto deal, Finnegan is already well-seasoned. Last year, he not only pitched in the College World Series for TCU, he also made it into the Major League Baseball World Series months later as a member of the Royals. Surely, he'll be able to handle the pressure of meaningless games in Cincinnati. You could do worse if you need a spot starter.”

Response:  Good points on Chisenhall and Finnegan but do not count out the Yankees.  2 back in the loss column and three games upcoming in Toronto!  Even winning the series 2-1 makes it a one game in the loss column lead with 11 to play.