Is it Time to Replace Saves?

Can we please, finally, replace saves, an outdated way to evaluate bullpen arms?

I should probably give up every time I’ve heard no, but I’m stubborn like that.

For years, I’ve tried to point out how the save is an outdated, outmoded stat. In 1997 it was cool to talk about saves. It’s 2017 now. Saves are passé. At the very least, they are not great indicators of pitching success, something I’ve touched in Never Draft a Closer Early (also, check out The Closers Conundrum).

Let’s hit the main points, directly. It’s getting tiring having to try year after year after year... but again, I’m stubborn.

WHAT IS A SAVE?

Here is MLB Rule 10.20.

Saves: 
Credit a pitcher with a save when he meets all three of the following conditions: 
(1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and 
(2) He is not the winning pitcher; and 
(3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions: 
- (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or 
- (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or 
- (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game.

Should we really reward a guy with a “save” for getting out batters 6/7/8 in a 4-1 game? How is that effort equal to a guy coming in with the bases loaded in a 4-3 game when that guy strikes out hitters 3/4/5 to end the game? Exactly, it ain’t, yet according to the save they are the same thing.

Furthermore, there is no way to know when a manager will, or won’t, use a guy.

Will he use his closer in back-to-back games? What about three games in a row?

Will the manager only start the inning with his closer or will be bring him in “mid-inning” to get out of a jam?

Will the manager call upon his closer in the eighth inning with the game on the line, bases loaded and no outs, only to replace him in the ninth after he gets out of the jam unscathed?

Will the manager go by the “book” and play the lefty/righty matchup game?

Will the manager choose his most skilled arm to work the ninth inning?

We just don’t know.

THE 2016 SEASON

Every year bullpens blow up. We draft guys thinking 30 saves and success. We’re continually disappointed and let down when they fail. Let’s look back at the 2016 as the most recent example of the old meltdown.

Here are relievers, taken in the top-30 last year according to NFBC ADP data, who bombed in the saves category.

*ADP at the relief position

As I’ve also written, there is a great deal of turnover at the position with only eight men having saved 20-games the last three years. Let me quote myself. “Only six men have saved 15-games each of the last four seasons: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Mark Melancon, Jonathan Papelbon and Fernando Rodney.” There’s tremendous turnover, and last season was yet another example of that. Here are the relievers who blew past their draft day cost, were tremendous values and no one was looking at on draft day.

*ADP at the relief position
* N/A means pitcher was not drafted inside top-120 at the position.

Why were guys like Oh and Diaz ignored? It had nothing to do with their skills and everything to do with their roles which were non-existent. As for the others, guys like Johnson and Gomez, they weren’t drafted because their skills were blah. So why are we rewarding blah roles over great skills?

Let’s try to advance the story.

WHAT IS A HOLD?

From MLB.com...

The hold is not an official statistic, but it was created as a way to credit middle relief pitchers for a job well done. Starting pitchers get wins, and closers -- the relief pitchers who come in at the end of the game -- get saves, but the guys who pitch in between the two rarely get either statistic. So, what's the most important thing one of these middle relievers can do? "Hold" a lead. If a reliever comes into a game to protect a lead, gets at least one out and leaves without giving up that lead, he gets a hold. But you can't get a save and a hold at the same time.

A possible, simple, straight-forward replacement for the save. It’s eloquent in its simplicity.

WHAT ARE SOLDS?

Quite simply Solds are saves+holds.

Nothing fancy. No calculators needed (well some might need one, but if you paid attention in middle school instead of worrying about snapping a girls training bra or passing notes about which fella liked you, there’s likely be no need for electronic aid).

STRENGTHS OF SOLDS

1 – Solds are better than saves because they allow us to focus on the skills of the pitchers more directly than being solely obsessed with the role. It’s much less important to grab a guy just because he’s the ninth-inning guy. You would be pushed into taking an eighth-inning arm who has better skills. That’s what it’s all about anyway.

2 – By taking holds into account, it opens up the pool of pitchers to consider into the realm of setup men. It might sound like more work, having to know even more arms, but think of it like this: any schlub can grab a rankings list off a free website. You’re not a schlub if you’re reading this. The more research you do, the more you care, the more you invest, the more you benefit from being in a deeper league so that you can utilize that knowledge. In this instance that “deeper” is a broader understanding of the player pool (Middle Relievers Matter).

3 – You would be rewarding planning/knowledge, versus random luck. As I wrote about in How to Work the Waiver Wire, there are plenty of instances where adding a player off waivers isn’t because you were well-prepared but merely because you were the first one to get there. Additionally, if you use a FAAB system, you wouldn’t be forced to blow all your money to add a reliever in Week 7 since you would have already drafted him knowing that his skills were elite.

4 – There is still a bit more importance placed on saves guys since there are always a few more fellas with 25 saves than 25 holds.

In 2016 there were 19 men who posted 25 saves.
In 2016 there were 17 men who posted 25 holds.

In 2015 there were 24 men who posted 25 saves.
In 2015 there were 11 men who posted 25 holds.

In 2014 there were 21 men who posted 25 saves.
In 2014 there were 10 men who posted 25 holds.

In 2013 there were 23 men who posted 25 saves.
In 2013 there were 15 men who posted 25 holds.

Over the last four years there have been 87 seasons of 25 saves while there have been 53 seasons of 25 holds.

WEAKNESSES OF SOLDS

1 – We could be double-rewarding bad efforts, or at least boring ones. A two-run, three-out save isn’t a great effort, just as a hold can occur in a less-than-ideal scenario. We double-count things like homers/RBI/runs, wait that’s a triple count, you get three points as a minimum as a homer, so it’s not like the idea is foreign to us in the fantasy game.

2 – Generally speaking, it could be posited that closers are more talented then setup men. Notice the use of the term “generally.” It’s not an ironclad lock by any means. A discussion of this point can be found here.

3 – Do we want to add more moderately-skilled players just to use Solds? Those lefty relievers, you know, the ones who face one or two batters and throw 45 innings a season, they will see their value improve substantially in a Solds setup. Is that a good thing?

2016 SOLDS LEADERS

A few notes.

Look at the top-10. That list includes seven primarily save men and three holds arms.

Take a gander at the top-20. That list includes 14 primarily save men and six holds arms. Just like it was stated above, we still would be tilting to closer over setup man in many instances.

Take a gander at the top-31 (didn’t want to leave out any of the guys with 31 Solds). That list includes primarily 21 save men and 10 holds arms.

Take a gander at the top-42 (didn’t want to leave out any of the guys with 28 Solds). That list includes primarily 24 save men and 18 holds arms.

The deeper we go on the list, the more evening out that we see. That gets back to the main point of starting to focus on relief arms.

The leading saves guy, Familia, leads the Solds list as well. Teammate Addison Reed is the leader amongst guys who racked up Solds based on the back of holds. Note that Reed was better in Familia in ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 etc. Objectively, he simply pitched better than Reed. Shouldn’t we reward that?

Dyson is the top man on the list with double-digits in both saves and holds. He was second in baseball overall with 48 Solds.

Watson, with 38 Solds, is the first man on the on the list with a 15 mark in each category. Giles is also in that category as was Gregerson.

So, there it is.

Simple.

Easy.

Seemingly better.

Let us know what you think.