At this point in time, you should be pretty well-versed in the opinions of Ray Flowers when it comes to drafting players with an injury history. If not, you better take a look at Avoid Injury-Prone Players and Tommy John Surgery. You can also check out Glen Colton’s SMART System piece as that should also help serve as a deterrent. Now I could sit here and echo their sentiments, a stance in which I firmly believe, but there are still some of you out there who like to stare into the abyss and see what stares back at you.
There are, obviously, different degrees of injuries/injury history and there are some risks which are greater than others. There are also many of you who believe that with high risk there can be high reward and you can’t win without taking a few gambles here and there. Well, I certainly can’t stop you from stepping out onto that ledge and, in truth, I can’t make you not jump. However, maybe I can say a few things here to try and talk you down.
Red Alert
Devin Mesoraco, C CIN – Despite recent reports that Mesoraco will begin spring training without limitations, we’ve got two-straight years lost to a hip injury staring us right in the face. The Reds completely mishandled his injury and recovery attempts in 2015 and his inability to stay on the field in 2016 probably stems from that as well. So now we’re expected to believe that this season will be different? Sorry, I just won’t take that chance with my team this year. Granted, the price tag is minimal, but if I’m going to wait on the position, he’s not someone in whom I’d like to invest.
Travis d’Arnaud, C NYM – He hasn’t appeared in more than 108 games in any of his four seasons as a professional due to injuries. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and gets hurt like a duck, it’s probably d’Arnaud.
Neil Walker, 2B NYM – Last season it looked as if it was going to be THE year to own Walker as he tied his career-best in home runs in 200 fewer plate appearances. But then all that swinging for the fences messed up his back and it was all over come mid-August. The now-31-year old underwent back surgery in September which has an estimated three-month recovery timetable, so he is expected to be ready for the start of the season, but as always, you should be concerned. Not just with his recovery timetable but with his overall health for 2017. Back surgery ain’t minor and when you’re sitting on the wrong side of 30, the body does not recover the way it once did. There are too many other options in the middle infield for you to invest here.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS TOR – the ultimate risk/reward, right? When healthy, Tulo is the best-hitting shortstop in the game. No question. But he’s appeared in more than 130 games just once in his last five seasons and continues to find his way onto the DL time and time again. The funny thing is that he’s failed to reach the 20-homer plateau in just two of his last eight seasons. The not-so-funny thing is that you could be the one left holding the bag when he makes it three of his last nine.
J.J. Hardy, SS BAL – Those who like to wait on the position still glance in Hardy’s direction and wonder if he can ever regain that 20-home run level again. At 34 years old, having failed to crack double-digit homers in the last three years and having appeared in fewer than 120 games in each of his last two seasons due to injuries, the answer is no.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF MIA – Like Tulo, Stanton has the potential of being the best-hitting outfielder in the game if he can just stay healthy for a full season. Only problem is, he can’t. He’s appeared in fewer than 125 games in four of his last five seasons due to an array of injuries and while you can say some of them are fluke injuries (like getting hit in the face with a pitch), trouble always seems to find this poor guy. At least with Tulo, people are letting him fall to the 10th or 11th round. For Stanton, everyone is still paying a premium price. It may not be a first-round pick, but when it comes to my second or third round selections, I want someone who has proven to me he can stay on the field for at least 150 games, rest notwithstanding.
A.J. Pollock, OF ARI – For everyone out there who insists on saying that Pollock’s elbow injury last year was a fluke, check out this piece which quotes his surgeon Dr. Don Sheridan who discussed the fact that the outfielder broke his elbow because the bones never healed properly from when he broke it back in 2010. There’s talk of broken screws and new screws and all that does for me is elicit memories of the Breakfast Club when Principal Vernon says, “The next screw that falls out is going to be you.” Still not enough for you? How about the fact that he had problems with this elbow back in college? I understand the stolen bases are tempting, but for where he’s going in drafts, I’m stepping aside and letting the injury concern be someone else’s headache.
Hunter Pence, OF SF – For seven-straight seasons Pence appeared in no fewer than 154 games and hit at least 20 home runs. That kind of consistency gives me a little movement down south. Unfortunately, you’re going to need some fantasy Viagra if you expect him to reach that level again. Injuries have ravaged the outfielder over the last two years and his numbers have looked terrible. Most of the injuries seem to be in his legs – knee, hamstring, groin – and that’s not going to get much better for a guy who is 33 years old and looks about as awkward as a human being can look while playing. There’s a distinct drop-off after the top20-30 outfielders so people may reach for him with the hopes of returning to his old form. Don’t be fooled.
Lorenzo Cain, OF KC – What is it about one good year of health and stats that has everyone clamoring for a player to be a budding superstar? Cain played in 140 games in 2015, hit 16 homers and swiped 28 bags and far too many fantasy owners were shouting his praises from the rooftops. But surrounding that one good season are six other season where he has lost significant time to injuries and failed to produce strong numbers for his owners. Even the 133 games he played in 2014, he didn’t hit for power and his 28 steals had him ranked 13th (min 400 PA) behind the likes of Leonys Martin and Alcides Escobar. Bottom line is, injuries hinder his performance year after year and one good year doesn’t mean spit. You can get 15 homers and 25 steals at a MUCH cheaper price this year.
Stephen Strasburg, SP WAS – I’d slot Strasburg in the same category as Tulo and Stanton. Tremendous upside here and has all the potential to be a No. 1 ace on your fantasy team. But again, he can’t stay healthy. From Tommy John surgery to a variety of other ailments to not even being able to pitch in the heat, Strasburg has red flags all over the place. They say he’s going to throw his slider less this season, but is that going to be enough? I’m not willing to make that gamble and neither should you. Someone in your draft will reach for him. You can be the guy who quietly snickers at him across the table.
Rich Hill, SP LAD – You say “Rich Hill,” I say “blister!” “Rich Hill!” “Blister!” “Rich Hill!” “Blister!” I only lead with that because none of the rest of his injuries really fit that chant as well. How this soon-to-be 37-year old got a three-year, $48M deal out of the Dodgers is way beyond me. Way beyond. He’s totally injury-prone and the consummate slow-healer. His 20 starts and 110.1 innings last year were the most since 2007 and the notion of him throwing more than that this season is preposterous. His 140.58 ADP has him as the 31st starting pitcher off the board which, to me is crazy. I’d rather take a shot that King Felix or Dallas Keuchel bounces back than hope Hill stays out of the MLB triage unit.
Homer Bailey, SP CIN – I can make this one short and sweet. Over the last two years, Bailey has made eight starts, thrown a total of 34.1 innings and will open the season on the DL after early-February surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Really…you can’t make this shit up. How the hell do people even think about drafting and stashing him on their DL? Do you actually think he’ll return to that 2013 form? Yeesh! Not to mention, that was his best season and it really wasn’t all that good.
Orange/Yellow Alert
Anthony Rendon, 3B WAS – Last season was a great year for Rendon, but you cannot just cast aside the injury history and his struggles in 2015. He’s dealt with a number of injuries throughout his professional career (both minor and major leagues), most notably the knee problems, so just be cautious if you plan on drafting him. As much as you’d like to believe he can repeat last year, there is no track record to show he can.
Ryan Braun, OF MIL – There is no doubt about how strong these last two seasons have been for Braun, given how disastrous 2013 and 2014 were, but let’s not declare ourselves out of the woods just yet. He still hasn’t played more than 140 games in any of the last four seasons and he’s no spring chicken at 33 years old. He’s dealt with a variety of maladies with wrist and thumb issues being the most recent, but let’s also make sure we remember a 65-game PEDs suspension and what happens to professional athletes following extended periods of use. The body breaks down. It’s a fact. Maybe it does for Braun this year and maybe it doesn’t, but you cannot ignore what’s happened to him in recent seasons.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL – Back-to-back seasons of at least 150 games is pretty darn tasty, especially for a guy like CarGo who benefits from the Coors effect annually. But while he’s maintained his health in recent seasons, we cannot ignore the fact that he has a lengthy injury history and is entering his age-31 season. While injuries can happen to anyone, you have to accept the fact that, even after these last two years, the wheels could fall off the wagon at any point. Love that power, but just understand the risk.
Jose Bautista, OF TOR – Speaking of wheels falling off the wagon, Joey Bats took quite the tumble last year after two fantastic seasons in 2014 and 2015. He still popped 22 home runs, but that was a far cry from the power we were hoping for and that .234 average wasn’t helping either. The injuries, the slow healing and all of that should remain a concern. Not to mention, Kendrys Morales is in town and likely to clog up that DH spot on most days. Too much time in the field could wane on Bautista come the dog days of summer.
Michael Brantley, OF CLE – Obviously, you’d like to think that the added time off would help Brantley get back to full health, but that doesn’t mean the shoulder is at full-strength. You simply cannot expect him to be the same guy he was before the injury and after watching him try to make his comeback last year, you should still have some serious reservations about drafting him. Now, a 19th round pick isn’t a bad time to gamble, but if there are positive reports this spring, that ADP could climb and then you really have to beware.
Brett Gardner/Jacoby Ellsbury, OF NYY – They’re both getting older, they’ve both had their fair share of injuries throughout their careers and they both make their living off their legs. The way the ADP looks, both are at very reasonable prices, but if you’re looking to grab speed late in your drafts, you should have a contingency plan as both could be looking at some time spent on the DL.
Michael Saunders, OF PHI – Between platooning and a steady stream of injuries, Saunders has never played more than 140 games in a season. And when I say ‘steady stream,’ we’re talking about knee, shoulder, oblique, viral infections, you name it. You’re more than welcome to draft him late, but just factor in his expected time on the disabled list. He simply cannot avoid it.
Carlos Carrasco, SP CLE – So much potential and yet, we always seem to see something throw a monkey wrench into the plans. He’s already had the Tommy John surgery, he’s had hamstring issues even before missing a month because of it last year, and how about the non-displaced fracture in his hand? There just always seems to be something more than there isn’t. He’s got great stuff, but keep in mind that he’s never thrown more than 185 innings in a season during his big league career and that is simply a fact that should give you some pause.
Zack Greinke, SP ARI – Last season’s innings count of 158.2 was the lowest for Greinke since 2007 and the shoulder issue that cut 2016 short needs to be factored in when deciding on who to draft to lead your rotation. His MRI back in September was favorable, but that doesn’t mean the wear-and-tear his shoulder has endured won’t be a factor moving forward. The guy has thrown a lot of innings throughout his 12-year major league career and while you can’t just dismiss him, you have to keep it in the back of your mind during valuations.
Masahiro Tanaka, SP NYY – In my opinion, he defied the odds last year. After a partial UCL tear was found, many expected the other shoe to drop and abandoned thoughts of drafting Tanaka as their ace. The solid season he put together in 2016 was appreciated by those who took that risk, but there is still some cause for concern given the heavy workload he’s endured throughout his career.
Matt Harvey, SP NYM – The Tommy John surgery was a big hurdle for Harvey and the Mets did their best to coddle their budding ace during his recovery. But once they felt comfortable with taking the reins off him last year, shoulder problems arose and the result was thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in July. He’s supposedly recovered and is expected to be ready for spring training, but it’s going to be awfully tough to put your trust into him right now.
Wade Davis, RP CHC – All I can say here is the elbow issues and eventual shutdown of Davis last season is enough to push him down the closer rankings for me and give me real pause about drafting him as my top closer. He had a dip in his velocity during the second half and his strikeout rate dropped significantly. The offseason rest probably did him some good, but once he starts throwing at full speed again, there may be questions as to how long he can go before the elbow starts barking again.