Hurler Workload Concerns

I so wanted this entire article to merely say – The Mets Starting Pitching Staff.
Figured it would be funny but not exactly useful.

I then though about using – All Rookies.
Not funny or useful.

So how about I attack this in a legit manner? In what follows, I’ll break down various categories that speak to increased workloads in 2016. Some of the pitchers are coming off arm injuries, others, leg issues, or ribs, or ears or whatever. Some are just young arms who are attempting to build up arm strength. The hard part is determining what matters most, or for that matter, if any of this matters.

THE VERDUCCI EFFECT

Tom Verducci is a national baseball writer. A few years back he decided to start pushing/publishing a column each year which discussed young pitchers and increased workload. There were two data points that needed to be met in order for a player to “qualify” for inclusion in the study.

Pitcher was 25 years or younger.

An increase of 30 innings from the previous season.

If you met both of those criteria you were “at risk” according to Verducci. Makes sense -- young arms with increasing workloads being at risk for injury.

The results over the years have certainly been mixed with no clear-cut support of Verducci’s position being full-proof and/or accurate.

COMMON SENSE

I think what Verducci puts out there makes a lot of sense. However, data is data and the results are inconclusive. Still, a reasonable position to hold is that young arms could be at more risk of health woes as the innings pile up, especially so, if there is a sharp rise from one season to the next. Honestly, huge increases in workload for any pitcher, at any age, should at least be something you consider when evaluating pitchers.

There seems to be a couple of obvious angles to tackle this issue. We can look at pitch counts or innings pitched totals. I figured we should look at both.

One other note before doing that...

There is no answer here. Is it the frequency at which a guy throws that leads to arm woes? Is it the innings? Is it the number of pitches? Is it the type of pitches he throws? Is it mechanics-related? What role do genetics play? There are so many directions we could turn to in an attempt to figure this sucker out, but the truth is, no matter how deep we dig, an “answer” may not arrive.

INNINGS PITCHED

Let’s take a look at the arms that saw the largest workload increase in 2016 and speak to the level of concern with their arms.

Stroman had a knee issue in 2015. He threw 166.1 innings in 2014 so there shouldn’t be as much concern as the raw number would lead you to believe. Solid/smooth mechanics help lessen the concern as well.

Taillon has a huge arrow of concern. He missed 2014 with Tommy John surgery and 2015 with sports hernia surgery.

Darvish was returning from Tommy John surgery last year so that zero in 2015 is explainable.

Bradley was a starter, then reliever, now a starter. That level of increase, in triple-digits, is a red flag.

Roark is easily explained as the Nats moved him from the rotation to the bullpen in 2015. Back in the rotation in 2016, there’s very little concern with Roark.

Sanchez worked out of the bullpen in 2015 before seeing that nearly triple-digit rise in workload in 2016. Color me concerned.

Bundy, at one time one of the top-5 starting pitching prospects in baseball, has been dealing with injuries for years. He didn’t throw a pitch in 2013, lasted 41.1 innings in 2014, threw just 24 innings in 2015. That’s three years with a total of 65.1 innings. He threw 109.2 innings in 2016. Gotta be concerned with his outlook moving forward.

Pomeranz nearly doubled his innings pitched total, has a history of less than large inning totals, and certainly seemed to wilt under the workload last season.

Paxton has body issues yearly. He’s never been able to avoid the doctor’s chair.

Finnegan/Manaea are two young arms who were both over the 60+ innings pitched mark. Both arms showed little wear last season lessoning some concerns.

Fulmer was monitored very closely last season by the Tigers.

Velasquez threw 125-innings last season for the first time. He has never proven that he can stay healthy. His arm is a constant worry.

Urias is only 20 years old. The Dodgers know he can be a future ace. They understand that a measured approach is 100-percent logical, not just cause of his importance with the franchise but because of his incredible youth (this is a huge factor considering that Urias is years younger than others we normally talk about being concerned with). One would figure that Urias wouldn’t see an increase this season much larger that last year’s total.

2016 PLAYOFF CONCERNS

There were nine men who threw 15 innings in the playoffs last year, and those matter even though we often ignore them when talking workload concerns. The top-3 on the list are the only ones that really should cause you any pause in 2017.

PITCH COUNTS

While most of the time we focus on innings pitched, it might be more instructive to look at pitch counts. We’ve all seen it. A guy goes out, throws seven pitches, gets three outs. Next time out it takes him 32 pitches to get through the inning. You can’t really think they are equal innings, can you? Clearly one was more impactful/dangerous/hurtful than the other. That’s where pitch counts come into play. Here is a listing of a few of the men who saw the largest pitch total increases from the 2015 to 2016 season.

*These totals are only for big league innings.

**Players are listed with totals from the last two seasons. Check the “TEAM” section. Obviously 2015 means the 2015 season, while the numbers located to the right of the player’s team name are for the 2016 campaign.

Roark should be fine, the old bullpen to starting thing.

Verlander has thrown the second most pitches in baseball the last 11 years.

Pomeranz basically doubled his pitch count. Yikes.

Gausman finally stayed healthy and the Orioles decided to just leave him as a starter.

Wright is a knuckleballer, so added pitches likely don’t matter.

Corbin was returning from Tommy John surgery.

WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC

The World Baseball Classic is being held this year. Keep an eye on innings here, especially for younger pitchers who haven’t build up their innings count yet.

You might want to also check out the BeyondTheBoxscore column on how the WBC impacted performance.