Pitching takes center stage in this week’s Week That Was.
Doug Fister: Fister threw six shutout innings Friday and in so doing, reduced his ERA to a respectable 3.51. In my view, that is where the good news ends. Fister’s Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP sits at a much more bloated 4.96. Why? Well, he has been very lucky with a .255 BABIP, his average fastball velocity is one of the lowest in baseball at 86mph and precious few hitters are being fooled. Indeed, Fister’s swinging strike percentage is under 5 percent (that is atrocious if you have not guessed). If you own Fister, consider yourself lucky thus far and cash in your chips. It is time to leave the table and buy something better with your winnings before it is too late.
Jesse Hahn: Hahn was pounded for seven runs in 2/3 of an inning Friday. In a made up word: Ugh-lee! After Friday’s debacle, Hahn’s surface stats are indeed awful: 6.10 ERA and an equally swollen 1.65 WHIP. However, all is not lost. Hahn is throwing harder this year, posting a 94 mph average fastball velocity and his 66 percent strand rate shows he has been unlucky. The advanced metrics similarly mixed. Hahn’s swinging strike rate is weak at around 6 but his first pitch strike percentage (70+) and groundball rate (approx. 55) are both elite. This is a gut call but those in deep leagues should buy low now. Those in more shallow leagues who are looking for lightning should stash Hahn on their benches.
Taijuan Walker: Walker gave up six runs over five innings in a loss to Adrian Beltre and the Rangers. Walker’s ERA has jumped to almost 4.00. With a FIP around 5.00 and a swinging strike rate under 9 percent (which should be better given his stuff), there are reasons for worry. Moreover, given that Walker has only thrown about 200 MLB innings over the least there years combined, I would not bank on a big second half. Keeper leaguers keep, redrafters sell. Next!
R.A. Dickey: Dickey allowed no earned runs over six and 2/3 to the hot hitting Red Sox. You know what time it is? SALE TIME! Dickey’s strikeout rate sits under 7.0 for the second year in a row, his walk rate is up, and the .272 BABIP says he has been lucky. Moreover, hitters have been squaring up on R.A. as shown by the large increase in hard hit percentage. This has been a good story for a while but I fear a bad ending.
Nathan Eovaldi: Eovaldi was not at his best Friday but he deserved better. His final line included five runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings (bad) and 5 K against just one BB (good). Eovaldi looked pretty good for five innings before flaming out in the sixth. Of course, had Kirby Yates done his job, Eovaldi’s line would have looked a lot better. Forget the stats for a moment and watch the tape – Nate’s splitter looked nasty and his fastball has lost nothing. That combination alone is a pretty solid prescription for success. Oh, and if you did want numerical support for my eyes, the advanced metrics provide it – Nate is throwing 97 with an xFIP of 3.44 (well below the 4.09 ERA). Now is the time to buy a guy who could dominate in the season’s last 4 months.
Francisco Liriano: Liriano laid an egg – a rotten egg -- Friday giving up 14 baserunners and six earned runs over just 3 1/3 innings. Eek, small children avert your eyes! The walks and lack of control are killing Liriano. The velocity, strand rate, BABIP, and groundball percentage are all consistent from last year. But, when he gets behind in the count and has to come in, he is getting hit as the elevated HR/FB and hard contact percentage show. I like the odds of pitching guru Ray Searage helping Liriano right the ship and get back to a level of better control. Once that happens, the rest will fall into place.
Jimmy Nelson: It was a bad night for Nelson Friday as he lasted just four innings while giving up six runs on seven hits and striking out just one. Despite the bad start, Nelson still has a solid 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP despite a very unlucky .252 BABIP. This is a good young pitcher who had a bad night. Stay the course!
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates -- aka Schultz says: “Over the last few years, any discussion of obtaining roto-assets employed by the Miami Marlins have predominantly been limited to stories about the health of Giancarlo nee Mike Stanton, the condition of Jose Fernandez' arm, the consistency of Dee Gordon's urine and lip-service paid to whoever pitches in the 9th inning. Certainly not the state of affairs Jeffrey Loria had in mind when he moved the team into Marlins Park in 2012. Although, in all fairness, it may exactly what he had in mind when he traded away Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson and Emilio Bonifacio before the 2013 season. With very little attention ever being paid to the seemingly perpetual rebuilding going on in south Florida, the fact that the Marlins may be on the verge of being rebuilt has been quite under-publicized.
A simple look atop the NL hitting leaders yields the surprising revelation that Marcell Ozuna, long thought of as one of the Marlins' best roto-prospects, may no long be residing in the land of potential. With a .319 average and 11 HR, you can expect that 29 RBI and 35 runs to steadily increase. Sitting just above Ozuna with a .328 average, Christian Yelich, who has always been thought of as a five-category roto-stud in progress, may be rounding into form. Although his present power and speed numbers (5 HR and 3 SB) aren't up to par, the 24-year-old will only be getting better as time passes. It's also worth mentioning that Derek Dietrich, one of the players acquired at the tail end of Loria's 2013 bait-and-switch scheme, has made the most of the opportunity presented by the Gordon suspension. Nowhere close to his predecessor in thieving bases, Dietrich has provided a solid .303 average while giving raise to modest roto-expectations.
Roto-championships are often won or lost by the supporting pieces acquired during the season. While none of the starting Marlins should be unowned in any league, their roto-owners surely haven't grown too attached - although, Ozuna's roto-owner has surely developed deep feelings. If looking to bolster your roster for the summer months, don't let the Marlins' bad-rep prevent you from helping you help yourself.”
Response: Yes, I like Ozuna and Dietrich. Oh, and while Schultz doesn’t explicitly say so, do not sleep on Gordon. He will be back this summer.